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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    ECMWF keeps hope alive for the 5th/6th (I guess). Slower, a bit north. 00z Euro had these two features (circled) crash down and seemingly whisk whole thing out to sea. 12z euro doesn't' have them.
  2. paulythegun
    Yeah I've always had this (noob) question of whether a higher resolution model could "trick itself" by aggressively identifying noise (smaller features) and failing to smooth those out. But I guess that's just a convective feedback loop?
  3. paulythegun
    4 out of 20 members of CMC Ens have snow reaching here Feb. 5/6. Two have a liquid explosion. Therefore, 10% chance of a liquid explosion. That's how this works.
  4. paulythegun
    The last 5 runs (here it comes! rain bomb!)
  5. paulythegun
    For the 5th/6th, EPS has these three panels + 48 panels of nothing or almost nothing.
  6. paulythegun
    haha the euro smashes that thing to oblivion on Feb 5th. Smashes it back into the gulf of mexico from whence it came
  7. paulythegun
  8. paulythegun
    I wonder what the analogs are for this one
  9. paulythegun
    GFS Ext. Control AO collapses into negative infinity LMAO
  10. paulythegun
  11. paulythegun
    Yeah the Euro - as depicted - would probably be almost 12 hours of White Rain in the city, changing from a rain snow mix around 9pm then continuing into the morning with zero accumulation. Probably over 0.3" of QPF in and around the city with a bit more NW of the city where maybe rates overcome 34F at the surface. I'd take this as a best case! And I'd wager about 2" on my elevated (20 feet high) metal deck!
  12. paulythegun
    Yep looks great! One thing i'd like to see is the good look at the end of the ensembles. They keep kicking it a day forward.....but i'll be patient! Here's yesterday's 12z EPS: VS today 12z EPS: Looking forward to seeing the blue connect with the blue!!!
  13. paulythegun
    the people who complain about complaints about complainers in the complaining sub-forum are the worst!
  14. paulythegun
    As depicted on the euro, flakes would fly for many many hours (into puddles, but whatever). My metal, elevated deck will be covered though.
  15. paulythegun
    This made me chuckle. take that, winter of 2023/2024 naysayers!
  16. paulythegun
    Ladies and gentlemen: I give you RAIN
  17. paulythegun
    The euro is good for next monday morning if you don't know how this map works (precip is 6z-12z, 850T is 12z)
  18. paulythegun
    06z Euro Control has the same look as GFS. Surface temps a disaster though.
  19. paulythegun
    WE JUST GOT LULLED!
  20. paulythegun
    GEFS, GEPS, EPS all have this trend at the end of the run (vs previous runs)
  21. paulythegun
    someone can correct me, but i think the problem is not just that it's warm here. it's the fear that our cold source (canada) would get scoured out as well. so you've got mild air here with anomalously warm air north of it.
  22. paulythegun
    this analog for next weekend shows what might have possibly been with some cold air
  23. paulythegun
  24. paulythegun
    canada totally deflated. no pressure up there at all.
  25. paulythegun
    GEFS extended (which I assume just reverts to el nino analogs after two weeks out, but that's an uninformed cynical guess) looks good in early to mid february.
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