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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    my mistake - reposted below. looks more significant on teh real thing!
  2. paulythegun
    son of a gun, posted the wrong gif. here's that jet streak trend.
  3. paulythegun
    Look at the jet streak shifting south (6z nam vs 12z nam). Puts DC proper (and areas just north) closer to the left exit area.
  4. paulythegun
    Love the MOISTNESS trend at mid-levels. this is comparing the last couple nam 3k runs
  5. paulythegun
    00z GRAF
  6. paulythegun
    Get this to weatherpeens!
  7. paulythegun
    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE!!! "WE GOT GRAF'D!!"
  8. paulythegun
  9. paulythegun
    18z RGEM is a little dryer (EDIT: it's tough to really tell with this map) but still lots of light snow for dc and points north. Philly jackput with the inverted trough. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  10. paulythegun
    Model grab bag. JMA total precip (looking very good!) 12z ARPEGE (JUICY!!!) ACCESS-G shows about 0.25 to 0.35 in liquid equivalent, tough to tell with this scale. And of course the UM(mmmmm) model is the driest. does UM have a dry bias? we'll see 557ww model...well...it doesn't have many good parameters other than 700mb RH and that looks north throughout the event, including at 00z on saturday. Though this is the 00z run of 557ww. so take it with a grain of salt until the 557ww computer processes the new 12z data. And last but not least is the RHMC model, which I assume stands for Ronald McDonald House Charities. Looks like widespread.....1 and 2 throughout the forum.
  11. paulythegun
    Hahaha this should be a running joke for now on
  12. paulythegun
  13. paulythegun
  14. paulythegun
    For me, the Jan 2000 surprise storm led to over 2 decades of radar hallucinations. Still, no regrets.
  15. paulythegun
    I was mourning the loss of the squall line tomorrow in my own bitter, bitter way. carry on all! I’ll keep my whining to the panic room. Squall lines are fun though!
  16. paulythegun
    We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall.
  17. paulythegun
  18. paulythegun
    15z SREF snow mean
  19. paulythegun
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1746026409972183193?s=46
  20. paulythegun
    What is the precedent for deleting a thread?
  21. paulythegun
  22. paulythegun
    18z RGEX XR looks pretty great. Hold onto hope folks!
  23. paulythegun
    The 557ww model also out to sea, though it looks abit closer to the coast than 12z UM, ACCESS-G, and GEOS-5. Reminds me more of the look on 12z ARPEGE
  24. paulythegun
    GEOS-5 (12z) also basically out to sea, joining the ACCESS-G, SPIRE, UM(mmmmmmmmmmmm) models
  25. paulythegun
    hisorically, this has been typical during the ukmet/ecmwf lag between noon and 1pm. unfortunately, CRAS has been discontinued.
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