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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    The “flagship model” made me chuckle
  2. paulythegun
    The precip orientation is great for Philly! .
  3. paulythegun
    What counts as underperforming? The precip max shifted 80 miles north in the past 24 hours so what baseline do we even use?
  4. paulythegun
    41/24 with a slight north trend out of the south in NE DC
  5. paulythegun
  6. paulythegun
    at least it's NORTH arlington
  7. paulythegun
    Delete the thread and start another?
  8. paulythegun
  9. paulythegun
    FINAL MAP
  10. paulythegun
    Time for the 12z day before the storm tradition: posting idiotic models while we wait for the Euro. The 12z ARPEGE. Still waiting for the GDAP/UM(mmmm) model to run.
  11. paulythegun
    I've been keeping it in the panic room. But GFS was actually colder on this run so the north trend was mitigated a bit. Stilll.....knife's edge!
  12. paulythegun
    (keeping these in the panic room to avoid spoiling the jolly mood) i may chase north. latest GFS is amazing....and actually the column is a bit colder! but as a resident of Mt. Hamilton in NE DC, i don't care for this trend. i always figured this one would be heavy snow into street puddles in the city but with so much snow just north, worth chasing...
  13. paulythegun
    NORTH. But on the bright side, LWX has temps never reaching freezing in the city until Saturday at 9pm!
  14. paulythegun
    uh oh. North Trend!
  15. paulythegun
    Looking at the timing here...NAM 3k has about 3-4 hours of precip falling for the city, but well over 0.1" an hour. In other words: definitely set your alarm if you want to see some fatty pukage tonight.
  16. paulythegun
    https://x.com/hotwxexpert/status/1758358847951958038?s=46
  17. paulythegun
    GRAF is in
  18. paulythegun
    I need an app that wakes me with an alarm any time snow rates go above an inch per hour.
  19. paulythegun
    Yeah it might be time to delete the thread and start a new one if that happens
  20. paulythegun
    Kuchera (as I understand it) is highly sensitive to the maximum temperature in kelvin in up to 500mb (Tmax below). I ran the calculation for DC for the Euro where the max temp is 273..15 in Kelvin (0 degrees C) during the height of the storm and that translates to 8.01 to 1 ratios using the Kuchera method.
  21. paulythegun
    Move your cars!!!
  22. paulythegun
    woof
  23. paulythegun
    *to the tune of American Woman* JET STREAK LEFT EXIT REGION
  24. paulythegun
    Time to beg @MikeTFox5 to post the latest Graf Model. Will report back.
  25. paulythegun
    If this thing arrived during the day, with this middling airmass (and middling moisture that isn't going to overcome temps outside of localized banding), I guess it would just be some wet white rain right? For the city at least. At least if you buy NAM.
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