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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
  2. paulythegun
    GFS slowly creeping north toward the rest of the guidance, which is slowly creeping south.
  3. paulythegun
    Most important 18z EPS Control run in history rolling out soon.
  4. paulythegun
    UH OH
  5. paulythegun
  6. paulythegun
    Through 102, the low is 4mb stronger on the 18z compared to 12z
  7. paulythegun
  8. paulythegun
    Solly's is a great place to watch snow fall (if it's accumulating on streets). They have those big bay windows with 180 degree views (added after a cabby had a seizure and crashed into the place in I think 2005).
  9. paulythegun
    12z NAM 84hr is way north of 6z GFS. more amped too.
  10. paulythegun
    Don't worry! The extended GFS/ECMWF models still look like El Nino analogs like they have all winter! [emoji848][emoji848][emoji848]
  11. paulythegun
    24 hours later..................................
  12. paulythegun
  13. paulythegun
    12z GFS was a Panic Room CLASSIC. Just amazing stuff. I agree with others though that the takeaway should be largely positive here. We're seeing multiple strong waves ride under us with plenty of moisture.
  14. paulythegun
    This made me chuckle. wonderful!
  15. paulythegun
    The Insult Each Other Room
  16. paulythegun
    Long range looks really good. There's no reason to be posting in here. But if I WERE going to post, I'd say, "March looks like at least 3 HECS rain storms"
  17. paulythegun
    Not in the cemetery!
  18. paulythegun
  19. paulythegun
    Day 15-20 looks like a period of interest in terms of starting to track March snow puddles after the February precipitation drought.
  20. paulythegun
    Can somebody tell me the exact moment when the wave breaks? I'm very excited for the wave to break. Also, when does the snow pattern make landfall? Have we sampled it yet? What about 06z/18z? Do we need more balloons?
  21. paulythegun
    For Feb 6th, 72hr into the 12z Euro, seeing some good confluence.....over the bahamas
  22. paulythegun
    ECMWF keeps hope alive for the 5th/6th (I guess). Slower, a bit north. 00z Euro had these two features (circled) crash down and seemingly whisk whole thing out to sea. 12z euro doesn't' have them.
  23. paulythegun
    Yeah I've always had this (noob) question of whether a higher resolution model could "trick itself" by aggressively identifying noise (smaller features) and failing to smooth those out. But I guess that's just a convective feedback loop?
  24. paulythegun
    4 out of 20 members of CMC Ens have snow reaching here Feb. 5/6. Two have a liquid explosion. Therefore, 10% chance of a liquid explosion. That's how this works.
  25. paulythegun
    The last 5 runs (here it comes! rain bomb!)
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