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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    The one saving grace of this winter sucking so bad is that I’m seeing tons of meteorologists rethink their resistance to basic facts like “the ocean is really warm!!!!” And YES, most of them are coming up with nonsensical justifications like PDO, solar, and other stuff. But it’s nice that even the contortionists are admitting that the earth is warm AF. Particularly the ocean. Because that’s a step in the right direction from “WE ARE ENTERING A NEW ICE AGE!”
  2. paulythegun
    We haven’t tracked a single serious snowstorm this winter.
  3. paulythegun
    Yeah those weeklies look good for the mountains but ONLY if you think they’re real. Do we really buy a 3 week blocking period in March after seeing it pop on the weeklies 4 weeks out for a month now? It can certainly happen due to random chance and the tendency for the PV to breakdown in early spring, but the weeklies aren’t worth more than a dart throw
  4. paulythegun
    We(a)klies keep pushing nino analogs from 2010/2003. Turns out the ocean wasn’t on fire in 2003/2010.
  5. paulythegun
    Yeah I suppose the operational models demonstrate how even with a perfect pass south, it’s rain. Wish that wave in front of it would cooperate.
  6. paulythegun
    We’re really giving up on this?
  7. paulythegun
  8. paulythegun
    Spring-like night-time rain in DC. Should add to the mosquito population.
  9. paulythegun
    41/26 and raining in NE DC. My guess is that the earth is not warming at all. I’m a big stupid idiot.
  10. paulythegun
    The “flagship model” made me chuckle
  11. paulythegun
    The precip orientation is great for Philly! .
  12. paulythegun
    What counts as underperforming? The precip max shifted 80 miles north in the past 24 hours so what baseline do we even use?
  13. paulythegun
    41/24 with a slight north trend out of the south in NE DC
  14. paulythegun
  15. paulythegun
    at least it's NORTH arlington
  16. paulythegun
    Delete the thread and start another?
  17. paulythegun
  18. paulythegun
    FINAL MAP
  19. paulythegun
    Time for the 12z day before the storm tradition: posting idiotic models while we wait for the Euro. The 12z ARPEGE. Still waiting for the GDAP/UM(mmmm) model to run.
  20. paulythegun
    I've been keeping it in the panic room. But GFS was actually colder on this run so the north trend was mitigated a bit. Stilll.....knife's edge!
  21. paulythegun
    (keeping these in the panic room to avoid spoiling the jolly mood) i may chase north. latest GFS is amazing....and actually the column is a bit colder! but as a resident of Mt. Hamilton in NE DC, i don't care for this trend. i always figured this one would be heavy snow into street puddles in the city but with so much snow just north, worth chasing...
  22. paulythegun
    NORTH. But on the bright side, LWX has temps never reaching freezing in the city until Saturday at 9pm!
  23. paulythegun
    uh oh. North Trend!
  24. paulythegun
    Looking at the timing here...NAM 3k has about 3-4 hours of precip falling for the city, but well over 0.1" an hour. In other words: definitely set your alarm if you want to see some fatty pukage tonight.
  25. paulythegun
    https://x.com/hotwxexpert/status/1758358847951958038?s=46
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