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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    That was like 1.5"+ QPF in the form of sleet on top of 4-8" of snow with temps in the teens followed by record cold. Once in a generation thing.
  2. paulythegun
    Precip max between 10am and 1pm. can't catch a break.
  3. paulythegun
    Just ran out into the middle lane of the Beltway to take a measurement. Just a trace.
  4. paulythegun
    Light snow into puddles in NE DC. Not sticking to anything, local station has 35/34
  5. paulythegun
    When does the diabetic cooling start?
  6. paulythegun
    Haha ok, on it. Plus it's hrrr, who cares?
  7. paulythegun
    Compared to 18z, 00z HRRR is a MASSIVE jump east.
  8. paulythegun
    Thank you for this. People act like the storm is going to call up the Pacific Ocean tomorrow and ask it what to do. Nina/nino has a marginal impact on long wave patterns, not storms wobbling a little to the east or west
  9. paulythegun
    Dropped the high end scenarios too
  10. paulythegun
    Snow totals lowered
  11. paulythegun
    NAM 3k verbatim has snow in DC from 10am Sunday to 3pm Monday
  12. paulythegun
    Wetbulbs for Sunday 7pm, DC: ICON: 34F RGEM: 35F NAM3k: 33F ECMWF (6z): 33F GFS (6z) 32F
  13. paulythegun
    I kind of love these debates. I guess with Monday rush hour potentially in play (albeit barely), they can use their discretion and go under the 5" floor for a warning? Rare that they'd do that with the watch though. But yeah the actual NWS forecast right now is 1" through 7am Monday so gotta see that move up first....and it's going to FLY above freezing so fast monday....
  14. paulythegun
    if you think 12z NAM 3k is a whiff, check out 13z HRRR! it shows 0" of snow through the end of the run!!!!!
  15. paulythegun
    There are two schools of thought for baseline expectations Sunday: School 1: It only counts as snow if it accumulates on the Beltway, ideally during rush hour, but we'll begrudgingly count non-rush hour snow: Baseline of T-0.5" of snow. School 2: It counts as snow if it accumulates on my 30' high north-facing metal deck but then melts whenever there's a 10+ minute lull: Baseline of 2-3" of snow. Anything above and beyond that: Gravy.
  16. paulythegun
    This is very insightful. So much to consider. But in terms of GFS...it was great to see that we could still score on a coastal with a slightly different 500mb map. The trailing vort was a bit off starting around hour 48 but things still worked out.
  17. paulythegun
    Looks more amped through 0 hours
  18. paulythegun
    My heart swells with jingoistic pride when I watch the underdog AMERICAN GFS model somehow prevail, against all odds. While we await its latest nugget of wisdom, please enjoy this song
  19. paulythegun
    17z product here. chance of warning level snow through monday 7am.
  20. paulythegun
    KMA stays very progressive, doesn't even give us much in the form of IVT snow. The PANGU-IFS model is a bit better, but not great. And 12z ARPEGE is about as bad as KMA.
  21. paulythegun
    it's a relatively mature mid-latitude low. vertically stacking a low like that tightens the precip field for a variety of reasons when compared to what we usually see (a coastal surface low with a trailing 500mb low and trough) we usually don't see that occur at our latitude. it's something we'd be more attuned to if we lived in the northeast though.
  22. paulythegun
    ha yep look at that warm air wrapping into it on the 850mb panel
  23. paulythegun
    i don't think i've ever seen the pink horizontal lines on the left almost touch the temp/dew point lines
  24. paulythegun
    The money shot:
  25. paulythegun
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