chubbs
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Everything posted by chubbs
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Down 360k in the past 3 days. With this late area drop, looks like 2016 is going to separate from 2011/2007 on CT SIA.
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Could also be cloud/precip/ice movement since it reversed last night with a 147k amsr2 area drop. Day-to-day trends have been variable but area is still dropping at a good clip averaged over the past week or so.
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Yes dipole would be much worse in June or July. I favor 2 or 3 on area.
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You were thinking 4-6'th at the start of the stormy period. Is that still your call?
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Big area losses in the CAB the past couple of days. With the stormy pattern forecast to persist for the next week, may get open water close to the pole.
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Per the PV pattern, 12z euro/gfs forecasting strengthening low moving from Laptev/ESS to CAB in 4/5 days, euro bottoms out at 966, gfs at 971.
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Nevins blog corrected their initial estimate to 12.5km2 down an order of magnitude from the original. Still a very significant event. With the calving, the glacier has retreated roughly 600m since last years max retreat (max retreat is usually in September) indicating that net mass losses continue in the glacier drainage.
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When will the 2012 Arctic ice extent minimum record be broken?
chubbs replied to Mallow's topic in Climate Change
2012 - 2019/20, 2013 - not in our lifetime - but I would have taken 2016-2020 if it was offered. Just eyeballing the trend line, looks like 2013 is more likely to occur than 2012 up until roughly 2018. -
It doesn't address global methane concentrations only emissions associated with NG production and use and comparison to other fossil fuels.
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This is an update of an earlier controversial paper. Paper has a clear discussion of methane emission estimates and does a good job of supporting the factors used. The main takeaway is that there is not much advantage for NG over coal when methane leaks are accounted for.