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chubbs

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  1. chubbs
  2. chubbs
    This is a good argument to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels. The fossil fuels of the past 100 years are not the same as the ones that are left. The giant oil/gas fields we have been using are increasingly depleted. We have an "energy" crisis because fossil fuels deplete making the supply unreliable without ongoing investment. The oil industry cut investment as prices plunged in early 2020 and now we are short on supply, even though global oil demand still lags the pre-covid peak. Its the classic boom/bust oil and gas cycle. Fracking makes it worse, because capital costs are large, economics marginal, and fracked wells deplete rapidly. A tired, worn-out horse to harness your future to.
  3. chubbs
    Got a kick out of this one. One solution is to let the ocean continue to rise, allowing the Ocean City beach to recede far enough so the wind farms can't be seen.
  4. chubbs
    Where's Blizz? Torchy recently considering the enso state. We should get some nina-related cooling this winter. Guessing we will be even warmer next fall, if the nina relaxes. We'll see.
  5. chubbs
    This new paper is about the tropics, but the physics are relevant to this summer heat wave in the NW. Dry areas are going to experience more amplification of extreme heat under climate change: "According to the theory, warming is amplified for hot land days because those days are dry, which is termed the ‘drier get hotter’ mechanism." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00828-8
  6. chubbs
    Haven't heard that it will. Appears that eruptions haven't been energetic enough to inject large amounts of material into the stratosphere.
  7. chubbs
    Some evidence for an increase in the rate of global warming in the past 20 years. Chart below accounts for ENSO and volcanoes, the main sources of natural variability. The trend differences are only statistically significant in some datasets, so need to run more clock before getting too excited. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2021/10/18/an-honest-appraisal-of-the-global-temperature-trend-part-2/
  8. chubbs
    This study measured the earthshine reflecting off the moon. The falling trend agrees with satellite observations and climate model projections that clouds are dimming as the earth warms. https://phys.org/news/2021-09-earth-dimming-due-climate.html Caption for Figure below Earthshine annual mean albedo 1998–2017 expressed as watts per square meter (W/m2). The CERES annual albedo 2001–2019, also expressed in W/m2, are shown in blue. A best fit line to the CERES data (2001–2019) is shown with a blue dashed line. Average error bars for CERES measurements are of the order of 0.2 W/m2. Credit: Goode et al. (2021),
  9. chubbs
    From Sydney Morning Herald, Ruport Murdoch is switching away from climate denial in Australia. No word on his US media properties yet, i.e. Wall Street Journal and Fox News. The owner of some of the nation’s most-read newspapers, including the Herald Sun, The Daily Telegraph, The Australian and 24-hour news channel Sky News Australia will from mid-October begin a company-wide campaign promoting the benefits of a carbon-neutral economy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in Glasgow later this year. https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/rupert-murdoch-newspapers-24-hour-news-channel-to-champion-net-zero-emissions-20210905-p58oyx.html
  10. chubbs
    I haven't seen one
  11. chubbs
    Yes the rains this week were impressive, humidity/moisture could be a better local indicator of summer climate change than temperature
  12. chubbs
    Analysis of SST of gulf waters that IDA passed over. Below are the odds of being above the given SST by decade. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2021/09/02/hurricane-ida-climate-change-makes-a-monster-storm/#more-11625
  13. chubbs
    The station trace
  14. chubbs
    Thanks, good example of the "sociology" of climate change. If your world view is that it isn't warming or that warming is insignificant, then misinformation is readily accepted.
  15. chubbs
    LOL - Tamino is a mathematician with one of the best climate blogs, almost entirely data analysis. Sad when sound data analysis is fake news. As described in the article Heller's US temperature charts are bogus.
  16. chubbs
    Don't be a sucker - Below is the average latitude of the stations used to make the "real" plot above. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/08/usa-temperature-can-i-sucker-you/
  17. chubbs
    From Tony Heller, climate denier. Well known for misleading charts.
  18. chubbs
    Free access: https://t.co/6eVQqDg8NS?amp=1
  19. chubbs
    Telling that Spencer avoided the 1998 to 2004 period of interest when comparing to other series. Below are trends from Dec94 to Jan2009, (broadening both ends to improve stats) Slope deg/decade UAH: -.014 RSS: .175 HAD5: .167 GISS .184 NOAA .146 BEST .154 UAH is a clear outlier, for the period of interest, but much closer to the other series before and after.
  20. chubbs
    Yes, correlation between the two datasets plotted is weak. In addition to problems with UAH, need to look at clouds more carefully - types, low vs high, location, etc. Also don't trust the site that prepared the chart - specializes in flawed datasets to promote climate denial. NOAA-14 was dropped because it warms "too much" in UAH's judgement, a qualitative call. Surface records are much less uncertain than satellites because multiple stations can be inter-compared within a region to correct equipment changes or malfunctions, heat island, etc.
  21. chubbs
    There are 2 decades of cloud satellite obs. This study is in-line with others estimating cloud feedback using satellite data. Scientists have been gradually paring down the uncertainty in climate sensitivity with better obs and models, as they do that there is no indication that warming has been overstated. Instead the tightening is mainly from raising the lower-bound.
  22. chubbs
    Another chart tweeted by author - climate models are doing a good job with clouds. The chance of climate science "missing something" is vanishly small.
  23. chubbs
    Saw this on twitter, the increase in severity of heat waves hasn't been evenly distributed. Much of the US has been spared the worst.
  24. chubbs
    Recent summer warming has favored the W US. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/july-2020-climate-outlook-has-no-good-news-us-southwest
  25. chubbs
    The main sink for CO2 is the oceans and the oceans take up heat and CO2 at roughly the same rate. If emissions stopped, CO2 concentrations would decrease fast enough to stabilize temperature. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/340/6131/438.abstract
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