chubbs

Thanks Don, does appear relevant this year.

Think this will go down to the wire. The Pac-side pack has been deteriorating in a favorable pattern.

With the favorable conditions we have had this year, am going to stick with my original prediction of 2019/20. Any other year is a crap shoot, or Russian roulette with the number of bullets slowly increasing. The 2012 volume anomaly minimum, around -8000000 km3, will be average in less than a decade.

Looking more and more like a 2 horse race

From Amy Butler's twitter. Unusual coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere this summer. Models at times too eager to end pattern.

The switch to fv3 has messed up Maine's anomaly calc, June is going to be warm, top 3 most likely.

4 days later forecasts are variable but most keep it going for quite some time - probably helping by preventing a classic dipole

A crapshoot. I see you also picked 19/20. Have to check back in a couple of weeks to see if we still have a shot at getting lucky (or unlucky).

Bump Crunch time for my wag. A month ago would have pushed the record min out in time, but will let it ride given the current pattern.

Recent summer warming in the Yukon exceeds the Holocene climatic maximum despite reduced summer insolation vs early Holocene. https://t.co/gCPWogUB5N

Top 100m of ocean. Tends to go up in steps, with this decades step unusually large.

IPO phase could bring September ice-free date forward. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081393

Antarctic sea ice has large natural variability. Here are a couple of speculations: 1) I don't recall the details but one paper flagged the the large nino in 2015/16. For sea ice the timing does line-up, 2) The antarctic ozone hole is slowly recovering this would tend to weaken winds and produce warming, both of which will reduce sea ice extent 3) Antarctica warming lags because of the deep ocean nearby which is slow to warm. as time proceeds though Antarctica will catch-up. Per the chart below, the south pole has also warmed in the past decade in a way that doesn't match enso, so it is likely more than just enso.

Rapidly receding Arctic Canada glaciers revealing landscapes continuously ice-covered for more than 40,000 years Here we show that pre-Holocene radiocarbon dates on plants collected at the margins of 30 ice caps in Arctic Canada suggest those locations were continuously ice covered for > 40 kyr, but are now ice-free. We use in situ 14C inventories in rocks from nine locations to explore the possibility of brief exposure during the warm early Holocene. Modeling the evolution of in situ 14C confirms that Holocene exposure is unlikely at all but one of the sites. Viewed in the context of temperature records from Greenland ice cores, our results suggest that summer warmth of the past century exceeds now any century in ~115,000 years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08307-w

With government shutdown, only Berkeley Earth is available for 2018. Clear where we are headed. More details on 2018 at link below. http://berkeleyearth.org/2018-temperatures/

UK met 2019 forecast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/2019-global-temperature-forecast

November Antarctic sea ice. Blutarsky.

Nino lifting global SST. Bottomed out well above the 2011/12 nina levels.

Not the whole story, but the other man-made and natural factors tend to cancel out.

Below is the best discussion of the available data for the past 1500 years. The current warming is unprecedented. Year-to-year variation in sea ice is expected. We get the sea ice is recovering story periodically in this forum: 2008/9, 2013/14, etc. Sea ice is not crashing and its not recovering, just a steady long-term decline with large year-to-year variability. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10581

Below is the daily sea ice anomaly and a one-year running average. Autumn, winter and spring have been leading the way down recently.

Go back an re-read what I posted earlier. 1) Sea ice is lower now than anytime in past 2000 years. Sure sea ice was lower in the early Holocene >5000 years ago. Summer sun in the northern hemisphere was stronger then. Summer sun is much weaker now; but, sea ice is decreasing rapidly. Why? CO2 of course, different type of forcing same result. All consistent with consensus science. 2) Per your chart, sea ice in the northern Barents Sea has been stable throughout most of the Holocene. Satellite data shows sea ice is crashing now. Why the difference? The recent crash doesn't appear on your chart; because, the method, used to study past climates, doesn't have the time resolution to pick-up the crash. Nothing wrong with the chart; just bad and misleading analysis by Electroverse.

Why? Whats the point? You ignored the material I posted. Scientific studies are not going to change your viewpoint. All I get from the interaction are insults.

yawn.....too much time spent on denier websites