chubbs

The article below provides a good summary of how recent energy trends are impacting IPCC emission scenarios. While I am even more pessimistic about the science of climate than I was a decade ago, I have become much more optimistic about non-fossil energy technology and natural gas vs coal. Limited policy and luck has improved the "worst-case" considerably vs CMIP5 IPCC scenarios. Unfortunately though, we haven't made any progress on the "best" case due to inaction/denial. Recent experience shows that improved climate policy and support for renewable energy technology could have enormous long-term pay-back. https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/3c-world

Very strong warming the past 5-6 years. The warm departure from the trend-line has stayed more prominent than the cool departure during the hiatus.

Off the charts surface melting so far this summer in Antarctica aided by the September SSW with temperatures above normal since late September. http://climato.be/cms/index.php?climato=the-2020-melt-season-over-antarctica-as-simulated-by-marv3-10

Strong ocean warming since the end of the hiatus. The 2016 super nino spike was completely erased by the following la nina. It's the non-super nino periods that have been killing us. Most recently we have warmed in the past year even though 3.4 temps have cooled.

GISS vs CMIP5 forcing (source for forcing # below, volcanoes*0.25 reflecting observed response to short duration activity). Observed TCR is roughly 1.8 inline with model estimates. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD028481

GISS - the current spike has fully corrected the hiatus, but the 11-year mean hasn't turned up much --- yet. http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/

PV = photovoltaic i.e. solar

Here is solar in previous IEA outlooks - 2035 in the base case is undoubtedly conservative.

Saw this on twitter from the International Energy Agency's recently issued 2019 World Energy Outlook. Base case on left, sustainable development, broadly consistent with Paris targets, on right. Solar forecast to be #1 in global power generation by 2035 in base case. That date is moved forward to 2028 for "sustainable development". This isn't rocket science.

From ZHausfather's twitter. Every possible trend to present, CMIP5 vs obs. Warming has picked-up in the past decade or so and is now faster than CMIP5 models.

HadSST vs CMIP5 RCP6 SST prediction. 2019 is through Sept for HADSST3 and not available for HADSST4. Overall CMIP5 is performing well. The post-hiatus spike has taken SST from below to above the model prediction.

Here is the RSS TLT maps for Sept and Aug. I don't see any evidence that the SHemi strat warming had much impact. The September warmth occurred in pockets across the globe (including E US). Probably just a fluky satellite month.

A strong enough carbon tax would quickly put us on a much better trajectory, been a no-brainer for decades. Much better to tax carbon than income.

Yes, the recent observations (Argo floats and other buoy systems) and climate models are in good agreement.

Validation of a 2007 paper. The stronger hurricanes are getting stronger. http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/stronger-hur.html

Less regional variability in US than I would have expected.

Warming picked-up coming out of the hiatus. GISS v4 currently has a 30-year warming rate of 0.21/decade. The 10-year rate is 0.36/decade (barely significant due to short period) http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

Not sure where you are getting your paleo (or other) info from. CO2 is a control knob and water magnifies the impact of CO2. Without CO2 there wouldn't be much water vapor in the atmosphere. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356

Can't get too excited about any one study or model. However, after 40+ years of rapid warming since aerosols stabilized, it should be clear that nature isn't going to bail us out.

Yes and the summer sun was 5+% stronger in the arctic in the HCO explaining the summer warmth. We are blowing past the HCO in the arctic with unfavorable orbital conditions for arctic warmth.

Interesting how misinformation on climate science and renewables goes hand-in-hand.

Funny, I have the opposite reaction to ice cores. The temperature/CO2 correlation is almost perfect in ice cores and modern observations.

Hasn't received any publicity, but the NHemi oceans are scorching, much more important to global July temp records than the brief European heat wave. Per below the warming has continued in early Aug. UHI?

No -RSS implemented a new method in V4. The main difference between uah and RSS, is that uah discards some NOAA-14 data because it "warmed too much". RSS is in much better agreement with other data sets. Below is land temperatures where diurnal drift is most important. UAH lags in the late 1990s/early 2000s when the NOAA-14 data was removed.

Warmest July for RSS - 0.71 vs 0.70 in 2010. 0.8C of warming in past 40 years.