chubbs

Looks like GISS lowered some of the monthly values in 2016 and 2020, now 1.01 is the record instead of 1.02. Since Kalshi defines a record as 1.03, possible to break the record and not get paid.

Unfortunately the x (and y) axes don't align below, so the dates don't match. There is evidence of a see-saw with arctic and antarctic moving in opposite directions. The ocean overturning circulation driven by sea ice formation is a potential see-saw link. Increasing fluctuation is a sign of tipping point behavior. Just speculation of course.

June GISS will be 1.11 if it breaks last years record by the same amount as Berkeley Earth.

A couple of recent estimates of impact of marine sulfur rules which took effect in 2020. Bottom line - not significant on a global-scale, roughly 1 year at current global warming rate of roughly 0.2C per decade. More significant though on a regional basis. Not the main cause of the recent spate of daily records, https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/

Another "warmest day ever" yesterday on CFS. Could be the peak, per Hausteins site, but the fall doesn't look to severe. More significant than the "warmest day ever" is the prolonged period of daily records since early June and the margin over previous years. A sign that this nino could send global temps well beyond 2016.

As expected, ERA also ticked higher on the 4'th

Big melt and runoff event forecast for Greenland the first week of July. The melt season started very slowly this year; but, has ramped in the past week as NAO+--->NAO-. Melt and run-off are forecast to reach record levels by the end of the week. We'll see. https://www.climato.uliege.be/cms/c_5652668/fr/climato-greenland

Very warm (and stable recently) forecast by gfs for first week of July. Pushing daily reanalysis temperatures further into record-breaking territory. Could break the 17C barrier on the chart posted above.

Not sure what the effect is. It isn't preventing daily re-analysis records. Any cooling effect from the Canadian fires should peak in northern hemi summer and end by late fall.

Think the odds will only increase as the year progresses. We started in an enso hole this year after 3 years of nina, but the transition to nino has been rapid. June is on track to be the warmest ever(note - SST below, global re-analysis temps for June also in record territory). Expect most of the remaining months this year to also break records.

This chart, based on ERA5, provides a clearer day-by-day comparison of 2023 vs the previous record holders. Flip to nino occurred early enough in year to allow a record. We'll see if recent warming is maintained or there is a fall back to temps closer to 2016 and 2020. https://climate.copernicus.eu/tracking-breaches-150c-global-warming-threshold?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=socialmedia&utm_campaign=globalwarminglimit-june23

Per this chart, Honga Tonga had a net cooling effect but it is fading rapidly. The cooling effect was a bigger peturbation than marine SOx at its peak. https://github.com/ClimateIndicator/forcing-timeseries/tree/main/plots

Agree with this. GHG are the problem. The oceans and aerosols are holding temperatures in check, but you can't count on either for the long term. Need to be careful about over-interpreting month-to-month temperature swings. The marine sulfur rules had a very short-term impact. The aerosols disappeared in a week or two in early 2020. El nino is going to have a much larger impact on this years temperatures than marine sulfur. As you say though some of this years early warmth is probably due to other causes. In any case, temperature records in years that transitioned to el nino are not that unusual: 86, 97, 02, 09 and 14 all set records.

CFS re-analysis temps are toasty this month. Roughly 3-months after daily satellite SST spiked to record territory in March. Since March, daily SST have moved further into record territory. Will temperatures lag SST and stay elevated?

The Pacific subsurface today vs a month ago. The EPac has warmed further while Kelvin waves continue to track eastward in the central/west Pac moving more warm water east. As others have noted, while cooling somewhat the WPac is still warm. This is a double-edged sword. Could work against full development of nino forcing; but, at the same time there is plenty of warm water to be sent eastward by Kelvin waves if WWB continue.

I made an initial bet at Kalshi this week. Looks like a big enso swing this year and per chart below the satellite measured energy imbalance is at record levels.

Another WWB induced Kelvin wave moving east and building in the west/central Pacific subsurface over the past two weeks. Sign of ongoing transition to el nino.

Typical early nino shift in Pacific warm water volume with west decreasing and east increasing. Following triple nina, warm water values in the west Pacific have been at record values which would allow a strong/super nino. We''ll have to see if potential is realized.

IPCC scientists have recently updated the state of the climate system through 2022. Its turning out to be an interesting decade. Chart below shows human induced warming, which is calculated from observed temperatures; and man-made forcing estimates on a per decade basis. After a period of relative stability from roughly 1990 to 2015, man-made climate forcing and global temperatures are increasing at a more rapid rate. The recent forcing increase is mainly due to air pollution control in China and other developing countries, as global CO2 emissions are leveling off. Below is the closing para from the paper: "This is a critical decade: warming rates are at their highest historical level and 1.5 °C global warming might be expected to be reached or passed within the next 10 years. Yet this is also the decade that global greenhouse gas emissions could be expected to peak and begin to substantially decline. The indicators of global climate change presented here show that the Earth’s energy imbalance has increased to around 0.9 W m–2, averaged over the last 12 years. This means that there are large energy flows into the climate system and rates of human induced warming will remain high as greenhouse gas emissions remain high. Nevertheless, these warming rates do not need to be locked in as rapid emission decreases could halve warming rates over the next 20 years (McKenna et al. 2021). Table 1 shows that although global greenhouse gas emissions are at a long term high, they are beginning to stabilize, giving some hope that over time the indicators of global climate change presented here can track a real-world change in direction" https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2023-166/essd-2023-166.pdf

Will GISS break a record this year? Odds are increasing. This year trails the the top 2 years 2016+2020 for Jan-Apr, but both of those years cooled in the last 8 months of the year as el nino weakened. Recent years with large ONI increases Jan-->Dec: 2015, 2009 and 2006, all warmed in the last 8 months of the year vs, Jan-April. 2023 sits at 1.01 for Jan-Apr vs 1.02 GISS record; so back-end of the year warming like either 2015, 2009 or 2006 would produce a record. We'll see.

OK, I see your point. recent favoring of La Nina has had an impact on trends in this region. Per chart below I can go with roughly flat since 1979, which represents a cooling relative to the global mean. As to climate effects on enso. Don't think that has been resolved. A couple of recent papers linked below: 1) Recent favoring of La Nina could indicate a climate forcing that was not predicted by climate models https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100011 2) Climate change could increase enso amplitude https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5

ENSO region 3.4 has warmed along with the rest of the globe. As described in the enso blog linked below, NOAA uses a 30-year ONI baseline which is updated every 5-years. Note also that baselines are centered, so recent years don't have their final ONI values yet. 2023 wont be finalized until the 2006-2035 baseline is available. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/watching-el-niño-and-la-niña-noaa-adapts-global-warming