chubbs

March was cooler than last year according to ERA5. Year-to-date, this year is running 0.05C cooler than last year.

Every time I look at your stuff I find more problems. The table above has fake or estimated data for Chadds Ford, Glenmoore, and partially for West Grove. Per NCDC, Chadds Ford and Glenmoore were precip only, while West Grove only has temperature data after April 1963. With your method, removing the fake data will change your result. That will be the third or fourth change to Chester County's climate you have made in the past year or two. Meanwhile NOAA is spot on.

Glad to see Grok make good use of the information in the Table. The table was criticized as "unscientific" by our local "expert" when it was originally posted

You are in dismissal mode. Throwing out the same old whatabouts. What about this. What about that. If you want the answer to your questions look at the material I have posted above. As an example, between 1945 and 1948, Coatesville moved twice and West Chester didn't. Between 1945 and 1948, Coatesville cooled by 2.1F, while West Chester only cooled by 0.3F. Using West Chester data alone justifies a 1.8F cooling adjustment to the pre-move Coatesville data. But there are many more stations besides West Chester that support the Coatesville bias adjustment. NOAA and other groups use the year-to-year changes to make bias adjustments. Why?, year-to-year temperature changes are correlated for hundreds of miles. Within a region, year-to-year temperature changes that occur at all stations are weather-related; but, year-to-year changes that occur at only one station are due to station changes not weather. When you have thousands of stations, with overlapping correlation across the county, the procedure is bullet-proof. Per chart, Allentown agrees with West Chester on the flat temperature trend between 1945 to 1948; and, there are many more regional stations that support West Chester and Allentown. The correlation of year-to-year temperature changes goes way beyond the border of Chester County. A cool year in Chester County is a cool year in the entire Mount Holly service area and beyond. The adjustments are based entirely on raw data. No, there's no doubt that the Coatesville cooling between 1945 and 1948 was due to a station move and not weather. The raw data is the proof. Now its your turn. Where's your validation? You are treating the Coatesville cooling between 1945 and 1948 as completely weather-related. Where's the evidence to support that. Same question for West Chester in 1970. You also need to justify using the City of Coatesville, the Borough of West Chester, the Borough of Kennett Square and Phoenixville as a county average. Finally to justify a simple average, you need to show that the station network doesn't change with time. Good luck with that.

When adjusted for the post-WWII station moves to a cooler location, the Coatesville data agrees very well with the NOAA county temperature series; over the entire record back to 1895. The move-adjusted series uses raw data from 3 Coatesville stations since 1948 and NOAA bias-adjustments before 1948 when the 1SW station moved between several Coatesville city sites. The Coatesville data, properly corrected for station moves, is a very good proxy for the county-average temperature. Once again NOAA is spot on.

Earth's storage of water in soil, lakes and rivers is dwindling. And it's especially bad for farming Their paper, published Thursday in the journal Science, finds that global warming has notably reduced the amount of water that's being stored around the world in soil, lakes, rivers, snow and other places, with potentially irreversible impacts on agriculture and sea level rise. The researchers say the significant shift of water from land to the ocean is particularly worrisome for farming, and hope their work will strengthen efforts to reduce water overuse. Earth's soil moisture dropped by over 2,000 gigatons in roughly the last 20 years, the study says. For context, that's more than twice Greenland's ice loss from 2002 to 2006, the researchers noted. Meanwhile, the frequency of once-in-a-decade agricultural and ecological droughts has increased, global sea levels have risen and the Earth's pole has shifted. https://phys.org/news/2025-03-earth-storage-soil-lakes-rivers.html

CERES net radiation spiked up in January reaching pre-nino levels of monthly positive imbalance. The series is noisy and the December value was relatively low. Will have to see if January is a merely a monthly outlier or signals a return to more rapid heat uptake.

OK, but you need to understand the impact of the 1970 West Chester station move. Before 1970 there is a roughly 1.8F offset between West Chester and NOAA reflecting the warmer West Chester location in the middle of town. Per the chart below, NOAA tracks West Chester closely for the entire 1895-1969 period once the offset is removed. After the move, West Chester cooled and the offset disappeared. Once again NOAA is spot on. After the station moves are accounted for, Coatesville and West Chester validate the entire NOAA series. Phoenixville also confirms the warming over the 1895-2024 period, recognizing that Phoenixville ran too warm during the 1930s-50s, as we discovered last year. That is the vast bulk of the county long-term data supporting NOAA. Where's your validation?

LOL, you are using plenty of data that isn't "certified" NWS Cooperative, your own house to start with, also DEOS, airport ASOS, etc. You results can't be evaluated without knowing how the Chesco station network has changed with time and you don't provide that information. The first thing a technical group would want to see is something similar to the chart I posted above. How many of your readers know that the early Coatesville data is from the City of Coatesville or that the station cooled significantly when it was moved after the war. We've been discussing Coatesville for years and that was news to me until I found out for myself last year.

Interesting test of Grok. I'd give it a failing grade. This statement says it all: "@ChescoWx's refusal to share raw data or engage peer review undermines their case". How can you give "partial merit" to Chescowx's claims if you don't know what was done. The reality is that Chesco's claims are flat-out wrong. The raw data shows plenty of warming in Chester County, but he doesn't know how to analyze it. Per chart below, Chescowx's monitoring network has changed significantly. The stations of the past tended to be warmer. Chescowx takes a simple average and Its well known that a simple average of a changing temperature station network skews the results. No wonder he can't find the local warming. Recognize that it is hard for Grok to evaluate Chescowx, since the methods aren't fully disclosed and Chescowx is constantly overselling his analysis. A problem with Grok, though if it can't distinguish between BS and science. There is another technical problem here that Grok should detect even if they know nothing about Chescowx's methods. Weather data and climate trends are correlated over hundreds of kilometers. This was established long ago by testing temperature data. There is no indication that Chester county is behaving differently from nearby counties. Finally both NOAA and Chescowx have track records. No one complains about NOAA's climate analysis in a technical forum. On the contrary, there are many papers that demonstrate sound results, including independent tests with synthetic data. Meanwhile Chescowx has no publication in any technical forum and is constantly repeating climate denier talking points. Grok's performance here makes me question the value of AI. Can provide general information but no insight. Also can't distinguish BS. Perhaps the training on twitter is the problem. Garbage in garbage out.

Nice insult at the end. What I have come to expect when we exchange data/information. I have shown you umpteen charts which validate NOAA. You dismiss/deny them all. Here's another. After the big moves, Coatesville and NOAA had exactly the same warming between 1948 to 2024. Once again NOAA is spot on.

The circled yellow numbers and your "post hoc adjustment" rows are meaningless and don't shed any light on NOAA's work. Why? The average of the city of Coatesville, Phoenixville, West Chester Borough, and West Grove is not the county average, not even close. Those stations are all warmer than the county as a whole. Of course the NOAA number is cooler, that isn't surprising at all.

I don't follow your comment at all. I added NOAA to the chart I posted above. Per the chart, before 1947 the Coatesville station was much warmer than NOAA. As I stated above in #4 this is not surprising. Pre-move, the Coatesville station was located in a built-up area subject to heat-island warming. After the post-war moves NOAAChesco and Coatesville are very close, reflecting the roughly 2F cooling associated with the post-war moves. As I said above, the raw data completely verifies the Coatesville bias adjustment. There is no "chilling, no data alteration. On the contrary, the bias adjustments are completely derived from the raw data, the best climate information the raw data can provide.

We've been over this at length. What you are showing isn't close to the station adjustments. You have been criticizing NOAA for months without understanding NOAA's methods. The data is your table only shows how warm the Chesco stations were in the period 1927-1951: Is it surprising that West Grove is warmer than Chester County. No not surprising. This site is in the S part of the County at low elevation. Is it surprising that Phoenixville is warmer than Chester County. No not surprising. The Phoenixville station is warmer than the county average today Is it surprising that the borough of West Chester is warmer than Chester County. No not surprising. West Chester is in the SE portion of the county. Between 1927 and 1951 the station was in a built up area. The station moved to a roughly 2F cooler location in 1970. Is it surprising that the city of Coatesville (1927-1945) is warmer than Chester County? No not surprising at all. Coatesville is at low elevation and has always been heavily built-up. My spot checks of current stations in the City of Coatesville are quite warm. Finally is it surprising that the rural Coatesville site (1948-1951) matches NOAA. No not surprising at all. The rural Coatesville site is a good proxy for county as a whole. Low elevation isn't as important at a rural site due to relatively cool nights which compensate for warm days. Bottom-line your table doesn't support the points you are making. The older Chesco coop data was collected at warm sites, mainly in towns in the south and east portion of the county. The warmth is illustrated by the 2 major station moves at Coatesville and West Chester, which cooled those stations by roughly 2F. We don't have to make any assumptions, the raw data shows the effect of the station moves. If you don't correct the Chesco data for station location, which has changed significantly over the years, you won't get the right answer.

Evade, evade, evade. Not a difficult question. Did the post-war move cool the Coatesville station?