RIC Airport

Not sure that is done, I'll refresh and update in a few.

00z GEFS coming in slightly better, fwiw.

CMC loves Hampton Roads, @chris624wx, @ldub23 @EverythingisEverything.

No worries, I'm not really liking the dryer trend. But, ratios should be cold with these temps.

If I were forecasting for RIC, I think 6-10" is probably a good call now. I'd be cautious forecasting more than that because over the last 30 or so years, somewhere between 6-12" has always seemed to be the cutoff in storms with this set up, while just to the north and west of metro Richmond, we more often saw 12-18"+ totals. The models had massive totals leading up to the events below, but they still fell short of expectations because of either mixing or dry slotting. Richmond Airport totals in () January 2016 (11.4") February 2014 (5.8" February 2010 (6.6") December 2009 (7.4") February 2003 (1.9")--IP/ZR storm January 1996 (12.0") Since it's been so long, I would love to see a top 10 storm (12.7"+) at the airport. Hopefully, this event will finally deliver the big one for the airport to get something updated in the record books.

Outside of a few clown maps at 300+ hours, yes, this is the most legit since 2018 for most areas east of the blue ridge and south of Fredericksburg. There were a few large totals on some runs in January 2022, but that was short lived.

Ratios would be higher given how cold the temps are with 1"+ QPF.

Btw, Kuchera isn’t available on Wxbell for the ICON.

I did see 1983 as a 500mb height analog on a WPC chart yesterday. Not sure if this storm is exactly the same, the 1983 was a primary that formed in the gulf and came up the coast. (see animation below) RIC: 17.7" DCA: 16.6" ORF: 1.1"

I always remain cautious until about 36 hours out as so much can still go wrong. Will be interesting to see what the 00z suite does, hopefully we won't see it weaker, farther east. Hard to get much better than today's 18z Euro run, at least for our region. However, if the 18z Euro AI is to be believed, Hampton Roads is the real winner.

I would double check the dates, I don't recognize a few of them like 4/5/1980.

18Z EPS very similar to the 12z EPS (2nd map below) with the axis of heaviest snows.

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1890827123415261670 He makes a good point on why the storm may be farther east. Hopefully it doesn't go too far east, the 18z Euro is just too perfect for our region.

18z vs the 12z below, seems to be sliding east.

Not sure I want to post after seeing the Euro.

18z Euro is another big hit

@wasnow215, when did you move to the area?

The last time there was this much consistency was in January 2016 and December 2009. I think the February 2010 storm as well, although that one shifted north and crushed DC, but Richmond still recorded 7" from it officially.

Yeah, most of that in SE VA on the Euro is on the backside. But if you get an early enough phase and draw down good cold, I can easily see a 4-8" scenario along the coastline, specifically southside Hampton Roads. I think 1-2" on the front end and 3-5" on the back end similar to how the Blizzard of 1996 panned out at ORF. But of course this is all speculation as every storm produces different results.

Definitely signs of a deformation band setting up somewhere, I'm sure the placement of it will fluctuate from run to run.

18z GFS is a good hit.