RIC Airport

Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993.

The snow mean for the period actually increased from 12Z, @Rhino16.

The good news is the 18Z ens continue to show a threat around the 4th and the 6-8th window.

Unfortunately, the 18Z operational GFS didn't deliver any snow for us. The shortwave that had been a winter storm threat around the 4th came out of the southwest but then got squashed by the arctic high coming south out of Canada. You can see what happens to it after it starts to pass TX in the below animation. So, POOF!!!, it's gone at least THIS run of the GFS. We know each run will fluctuate since this is way out there in time. The next disturbance is slightly slower this run, but was gearing up for our threat from around the 6th to the 8th. But, because of the Arctic high to the north, it stays suppressed in the south. By the end of the run it's giving places Charlotte and Atlanta snow.

E20 really crushes this part of the state, especially Hampton Roads. Below are the totals each member spits out for Richmond and Norfolk. Looks like that's why the mean increased some from 00Z.

The 12Z Euro ensembles have the threat around the 3rd-5th and then again beginning the 6th, which is on par with what the GFS ensembles showed. Below is the loop of the mean from the 1st until the run ends at 12z on the 7th, and you can watch the threats. Interestingly, the snow mean INCREASED for everyone from the 00Z run.

I looked at the 12Z GFS ensembles and some of them still show several winter storm opportunities around the 31st/1st, but bigger signals for the 4th-5th and also the 6th-8th of January. This is a loop of the ensemble mean from January 1st to 12Z on the 8th. I also included below a regional view for the 4th, 5th, and 6th- 8th. You can see the stronger signals for snow they have around the 4th and 5th. Then there appeared to be a more significant storm from the 6-8th and some of the members also looked icy. 3-4th threat 6-8th threat, you can see a wide range here, some members are apparently icy. Snow mean for the entire ensemble run. Below are the 12z GFS 30 ensemble members with snow totals for the entire run. There are a few good hits for the state, especially p06. But, as typical, there are complete shutouts, hence, the above mean.

Unfortunately the operational Euro at 12Z did not deliver us that storm at the end of the run. The energy that produced the storm in the SE on the 00Z run is still there, 12Z is just slower and weaker with it so the run ends at 240 before we can see if it turns into anything like 00Z showed. I will look at the 12Z Euro ensembles as they come in and see what happens beyond that.

By the way, I pulled Euro ensemble member 42 from last night to see how it came to its solution and it's absolutely beautiful.

Some of last night's Euro Ensembles (posted below) were also big hits for the state. This morning's 6Z GFS Ens had snowstorm threats around the 1st, the 4th and then again from the 6-8th and I saw big hits on those as well. So, the storm signal is definitely there. The 12 GFS is running now, curious to see what the rest of today's 12Z suite does.

Yeah, looking more and more that way. Canada is finally starting to see legit cold coming across the pole. Hopefully we see this juicy STJ coincide with it. Also, ideally it'll help keep snow on the ground for a while and not melt the same day.

Thank you, I think we see something big soon and plus, we are about to enter the most climatologically favorable time of the winter. We deserve it, especially after last year.

Also, 00z Euro is a hit at 240. So something will hit eventually, but being in the LR everything is subject to timing and strength fluctuations and also which shortwave in the flow will be our hero. Fun to track.

00Z OP took it away and replaces it with cold and dry, but the ensmeble run was still encouraging, several big hits including one that obliterates RIC, @ldub23.

The 12Z GFS has the storm threat as well. Posting for situational awareness, obviously things will change since it's the end of the run. But, I love how things look leading up to it. Upper air pattern supports something and we get decently cold heading into the New Year's weekend.

Happy first day of winter. There will be fluctuations, but hopefully this means awesome things ahead!

Thereafter, things get interesting. This will obviously change, but shows how favorable the pattern is becoming as we head into the new year.

Ahead of the next system, the 00Z GFS shows mid-upper 50s for highs in our area on Christmas Day then rain arrives in the afternoon or evening of the 26th. The 00Z GFS also forms a coastal off of NC/SC so this will adjust as we get closer and the storm track is determined, but right now, rainfall totals look lower than the previous two storms. On the heels of the the main storm another disturbance swings thru and tries to drop snow showers over the state. Surface temps looks decently cold enough, but moisture looks limited at this time.

Yeah, the winds were not that strong, especially when you compare them to some of the models. But, 3.14" is certainly a good event. And thank you for the compliment. We've had quite a few posters in the older threads. I've noticed, however, they don't come out in droves unless it snows. But, we haven't had much snow since 2018 so I don't know where everyone is. Some have moved away or left for other platforms (X or FB mainly), but I think the lack of snow and awful winters have been problem. That's why I'm trying to keep this thread active and value added, so when people come, they can find it useful. I have access to basically everything that people are posting in the pinned long range thread and don't mind tailoring the information to our area. I don't post much in the pinned threads because they are too DC-centric. Almost every single map or impression assumes the readers live in DC. But, that's nothing new. It's been like that even before 2010 when this board was created, and we were on Eastern. That's why I started the RIC/HR thread back in 2008, basically merging two metro areas, because I wasn't sure if we had enough posters to have our own thread, but it worked out. Just need to people to post more and we can build a better community for our part of the region.

The 12Z Euro ensembles keep our temperatures mostly around or slightly below average for the remainder of the month. Our normal highs are now around 50°F, while our average lows are around 30-35°F for most locations. So although no immediate signs of extreme cold for this time of year, it's nice to not see any signs of torching either. You may recall the first 5 days of 2023 had daily departures of +15 to +20 from the average.

AKQ released a storm report with a map. Seems like the 3K NAM did well with the rainfall distribution.

RIC has had 9.08" of rain since November 21st, clearly El Nino started influencing the pattern after about the middle of November. You can see the the Richmond's CLI's below where RIC's annual rainfall deficit stood on 11/20 ago vs today. Very impressive and could even surpass December 2009, another Nino winter, and make December 2023 as the wettest December on record.

12Z has the storm at the end of the run as well. But, it only likes the western part of the state, although perhaps eastern areas get some backside action?

Today is the 14th anniversary of the December 2009 snowstorm. Unfortunately, there wasn't much snow in Hampton Roads as ORF only recorded 0.2", but from Richmond and points north and west, it was a biggie for December. DCA's 16.4" was its biggest December snowstorm since 1957. RIC recorded 7.4" before temperatures rose above freezing and a dry slot moved over the metro area and points SE, while northern and western regions of the state continued to snow. All the snow in the Richmond area came from the overrunning as we were too far south when the coastal got going. Fortunately, this did not happen during the January 2016 storm. There was a sharp cut off of totals across the metro area as places like Short Pump reported 14-16", while only 7-8" at the Richmond airport. The below link is the NWS Wakefield's review of the storm for their CWA. I also added the 1am 12/19/09 observation at Richmond shortly before the snow turned to rain and dry slot began pushing up from the south. The December 2018 snowstorm was a bigger event officially for Richmond. https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/winter/2009Dec18_19_Winter_Storm.pdf

I am seeing 2.74" through midnight at RIC and about 2.45" at ORF if I tallied correctly, both easily daily records. If RIC did hit 2.74" it's another monthly daily record, which was previously set last Sunday. AKQ usually sends the CLI around 1:30am.