RIC Airport

Getting into the thick of it. Flash Flood Warning now. And there is a Tornado south of Petersburg.

Here are the 12Z EPS snowfall outputs. Definitely a handful of big hits. E-11, 14, and 32 were the snowiest members for the January 16th-17th period, especially for Richmond. Sharing the individual member snow maps for your enjoyment! Lets hope the EPS improves and the GFS/GEFS get on board in the coming days. For our entire region, including all of SE VA and NE NC, E-22 and E-47 were the snowiest from what seems to be another threat around the 20th-21st.

I was just looking at the EPS, some good hits and the mean is among the highest we've seen. Charts are still processing but I'll post everything within the hour. Definitely encouraging.

Our area is still in the game for snow, too.

I agree with this, and hopefully we all, including NE NC, can cash in soon. 12Z GFS, at least verbatim, liked SE VA and NE NC. Steadier rains off and on into the Richmond area, but nothing too crazy yet. Certainly the higher winds have yet to arrive.

Unfortunately, todays 6z GEFS were not as great as the previous 4 runs.

Last night's EPS also werent bad, certainly an improvement from yesterday's 12Z EPS. A handful of decent hits. I would not rely on a single scenario right now.

I know we are tired of looking at these maps with no result. But, FYI, there was a slight uptick with the 18z GEFS snowfall mean compared to the 12Z run. The 16th-17th and then around the 20th is where you see the upticks when looking at the individual members. We are ways out, so much can still change. Keep the faith. Winter is far from over.

FWIW, 12Z EPS outputs for RIC and ORF. Definitely a step back from 00z. Afternoon runs as a whole did not increase confidence.

The 12Z GEFS still showed a signal for a decent event around the 16th to 17th. Curious to see what the Euro and EPS does.

From what I can glean, the 12Z HRRR and 3K NAM had tomorrow’s rain arriving between 6 am and 8 am, with it being off and on and steady in spots from its onset. Wind gusts also increase to 20-30mph after sunrise but will start exceeding 40mph and approach 60mph, especially along the coast. As the squall line approaches, higher gusts could be embedded in storm cells. The squall line looks to enter our region between 5 pm and 1 am. 12Z HRRR had an earlier arrival, and NAM a bit later. The 3K NAM was aggressive with the winds showing widespread 60-75mph even for places west of Richmond. I'm unsure if winds that high will couple down to the surface though. HRRR wasn't as high as it had generally 40-50mph inland and 50-60mph along the immediate coastal areas. Nonetheless, it looks like tomorrow afternoon and evening will be windy. With respect to severe, SPC has a marginal risk up to about RIC. Although the risk of tornadoes isn't 0% for east-central and SE VA, the highest risk for tornadoes looks to be interior Eastern NC along and east of I-95. That is where I am seeing the highest surface CAPE (> 500 J/kg) and SCI values on the NAM. Unfortunately, I am not versed on tracking severe so I will defer to others to bail me out. I am more of a winter guy.

I'm no pro, but I like the ridge out west and the -NAO block. But, the cold delivery will depend on the placement of the polar vortex lobe that trails next weekend's cutter. We need that in the area where the Euro shows, even more south and east for an even colder outcome, as it could be a 50/50 feature to keep cold entrenched east of the mountains as the storm approaches. We don't want it too far south because it'll end up surpressing the storm south of us. There has been a lot of flexibility in the models on where each feature ends up, which is frustrating. More southern solutions are a possibility. Looking at the EPS charts I posted earlier, these two members gave Norfolk 15" and 10", respectively. You can see how far south these are and how NC even gets a lot of snow.

00z Euro was a nice hit. It's too bad it was at the end of the run, and we know there will be fluctuations in the days ahead. Heck, 12Z could have it back west again. Verbatim, surface temperatures remain below freezing at Richmond for the entire event. Starts as +SN, but as you can see by hour 216, the model shows a mix as the 850mb temps begin to rise and probably get above 0C for a time from about Farmville to about Tappahannock, which are the typical areas that tend to mix in the height of the bigger storms. Afterwards, there is a return to snow on the back side of the storm including coastal areas. EPS overall wasn't that impressive, but there are a couple members with more southern solutions that crushed Norfolk. There were only 4 members that gave Richmond over 6" of snow.

Hopefully, they are on to something and other runs follow suit. Still not losing hope on the ladder part of the month. Meanwhile, the 00z 3K NAM still shows a good-looking squall line swinging through our region Tuesday between about 6pm and 1am. It'll be a windy day and probably can't rule out some thunder in spots as that line approaches.

@Rhino16, @Conway7305the 18Z GEFS was encouraging as it had several events, with the largest still appearing from the 16th to the 17th, while another shows up toward the 21st. The snowfall mean for the entire run was the highest I've seen in days, and the probability of getting 1 inch of snow, particularly for areas east of the mountains, is the highest I've seen all winter. Regarding the 16-17th storm, the 18z GFS operational run was rainy for our area, with RIC reaching the low 50s (60s ORF), but many of its ensembles painted a colder scenario. In fact, there were several members that gave RIC at least 6" of snow. You can watch the hits below and see the charts for Richmond and Norfolk showing the member totals for the entire run.

Concerning Tuesday's storm, temperatures started in the mid-upper 30s that morning, and there could be some snow or ice for the far western and northern parts of the state. But, temperatures will rise into the 60s, possibly upper 60s in spots as the main storm tracks west of the state. It will be very windy for everyone ahead of it. Wakefield has issued a High Wind Watch for the immediate coastal areas. The 3K NAM also brings a squall line through the area between about 7pm and 1am and another widespread 1-2" of rain. Yay! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 249 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024 NCZ017-102-VAZ095-098-525-080400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.HW.A.0001.240109T1800Z-240110T0600Z/ Western Currituck-Eastern Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth- Virginia Beach-Hampton/Poquoson- Including the cities of Knotts Island, Corolla, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB 249 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...South to southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...In North Carolina, Western Currituck and Eastern Currituck Counties. In Virginia, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, Poquoson, and Virginia Beach. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds.

Yeah, we've been wasting so much time tracking with no results, just cutter after cutter, which seems to always verify even when they show up on the models 10 days out. Meanwhile, the EPS did seem to favor a more of a southern solution for the 16th-17th wave that follows next weekend's cutter, but the snow mean wasn't that great. There was one member that did gave RIC 5" of snow from it. I don't think we are gonna really know how this pattern is going to shape until we get a little closer, there are still a lot of inconsistencies on the PV and where it drops into the CONUS.

There is still some ensemble support for the 16th to 18th period, but certainly no slam dunks, @Conway7305.

Here is the 12Z GFS

00Z GFS, fwiw, had two separate storms. The first one is not as ideal as we'd like, but the storm was still there. There was another piece of energy a few days later, which I showed in the bottom map.

Happy hour GFS returns our storm.

@ldub23, The first image starts at hour 168. You can see next Saturday's storm is lifting away from us and moving into the NE US, and yes we warm up ahead of it, possibly well into the 60s. The 2nd is an animation that goes from hour 168 to hour 360. Watch the 850C lines and the waves of moisture that pass over us through the end of the run. Also, see my earlier EPS post and 500 MB gifs. Granted, it's an ensemble mean, but it shows an overrunning setup since we have the placement of the PV lobe over southern Canada, which ushers cold into the east with moisture coming in.

Yeah, the Euro op only goes out to 240. I mentioned after the cutter next weekend, which is around hour 168. It's beyond that when the PV drops and begins to move eastward and things get interesting. The EPS goes out to hour 360, which is what i posted. Nothing was a slam dunk, but still shows potential.

12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter and once the PV lobe drops south and moves eastward. This would provide the cold and push the storm track farther south. Also, the EPS mean has ticked back up and some with quite a few hits on the ensembles, which is different from many previous runs.

12Z GFS was awful. So, hopefully it's just a fluke run. Last night's EPS was way more encouraging, and you can tell the 15th to 25th period has potential. So we'll see.