RIC Airport

Here was the 00Z Euro. A nice stripe of snow for most about Williamsburg north and west.

Yup, I agree. I stayed up to look at the GEFS for the 16th-17th threat, and they certainly didn't take away the chances. GEFS is still running, so these maps are only through Wednesday afternoon to cover the first threat. The operational run did have the next snowstorm threat around the 20th and I'll check the rest and EPS when I wake up.

00Z GFS keeps us in the game and seems closer to a decent event early next week. This is definitely not the end solution. I will not be staying up for the Euro. I will be looking at everything when I wake up.

The 00z 3K NAM has Friday's rain arriving between 5pm and 6pm and moving offshore by 3am Saturday. Rainfall amounts look nothing like yesterday's storm, generally under a half inch, with the most in the northern and western areas. Totals across far SE VA and NE NC were the driest this run, which is on par with the NBM model. The 3K NAM still had high wind gusts exceeding 50mph in many areas. SPC added a marginal risk of severe across our part of the region, probably due to the strong winds. They might expand the risk area in tomorrow morning's update.

Ah, no worries. I can see how that can happen. For the calendar year, 2018 was the last to reach 20" thanks to the 12/9/2018 storm. But, there have not been many since about 1990, which seems to have been a turning point when looking at the period of record data back to 1897.

I am unsure where that came from, but that is incorrect, assuming it is for Richmond. 1957-58 was a 20"+ season (20.2") and also 1959-60 (32.2"). It looks like the current stretch of 13 seasons from 2010-11 to 2022-23 ties the record longest with 1996-97 to 2008-09. Should we make it the rest of 2023-24 without reaching 20 inches, it would become a new record of 14 consecutive seasons without reaching 20". Although not specific to your post, I would also like to point out that the 30-year averages are tallied by calendar year. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year norms, means, and extremes, currently in use by NCEI, runs from 1/1/1991 to 12/31/2020.

Definitely an improvement from 12Z, too! Here are the 18Z GEFS.

The entire run was great! The charts and ensemble maps are still processing, but I'll post when they are done.

Yup, looking that way as well. Plenty of time for improvements.

EPS was great, too for early next week. This is only thru the 18th.

The 12Z Euro was a major step in the right direction and puts down accumulating snows for most of the state. Although surface temperatures remain below freezing at RIC for the event, Euro has some mid-level warmth at 850mb that causes RIC area to mix for a time.

I know what you're trying to convey, this winter has been frustrating. We all feel that way. But as I've mentioned to you before posting the 384hour GFS to prove a point isn't helpful, because things change so drastically beyond 200 hours. It's better to look at the 500mb, particularly the ensembles, to identify trends in the large-scale pattern. Then you can determine whether the pattern will be favorable based on past outcomes.

Here is another slowed down version of the individual members starting at 00z 1/18 to 00z 1/22 that covers the period of interest for the 2nd threat. You can see there are snow hits, but also some rainy ones. I also added the snow maps that includes both threats. Plus, the 500mb picture also show a somewhat favorable look, with the western trough, continued blocking with that vortex over SE Canada which hopefully helps to support a colder look and track farther south, but maybe that is wishful thinking, lol.

The 12Z GEFS continues to signal the 16th threat. But, there are still a fair share of shutouts. We are still several days out and things can improve.

Still a close call on the 12Z GFS for early next week.

One can dream, right? e-33 gave Norfolk 20" and Richmond 14". Almost looks like the blizzard of 1980 at the end.

The 00z EPS wasn't as great as yesterday's 12Z, but it still signals the potential for accumulating snow for the 16-17th and increasingly for the 20th-22nd period. @Rhino16 pointed out that since some members can sway the mean, such as the one that gives Norfolk 20" of snow around the 21st-22nd, I included the 50th percentile.

Thank you, I found it! I never went into that drop-down before. And yes, I can start posting those maps.

Wow, that's impressive. I hope you find that you didn't undergo any structural damage. I probably hit 50-55mph a few hours ago, but I wasn't monitoring too much. I live in a newer neighborhood next to a large commercial area with few tall trees in my immediate area, so I only hear the higher gusts hit the house. Friday into Saturday's storm is looking like another doozy, too. I do not see that as an option on the sites I use. That may require a higher-paid subscription, I am not sure. Adding the median would be helpful for the reasons you stated. I assume that is why the charts are available. And while I will occasionally post the snowiest member or two, I hope everyone knows that’s only for fun as frequently there are just as many, if not more, complete shuts. It's always interesting to see the evolution of the snowiest ensemble and how the storms evolved. As I’ve pointed out a couple of times, some of them don’t make sense and are laughable, but I think overall they can be helpful as long as people don’t take them verbatim. Yeah, I actually noticed that, too! The highest gust at RIC came just as the rain was ending. I hope you don't lose power; I know a lot already did. Many schools are closing due to excess runoff from streams rising. Wakefield has issued a flood warning for most of the CWA until 7am due to rising water. Plus, we have had like 15" of rain in about 7 weeks, just crazy! Especially since many of us were coming out of a drought. The 00z GFS did not deliver for the 15-16th, hopefully, the next one around the 20th- 21st will gain further traction.

It's too bad the 18Z EPS only goes out to hour 144, everything looks good at 500mb. Snow maps only had a little east of the mountains through 18z on the 15th, but of course, that's not quite within range yet. Hopefully, all that means is that the 00z runs will be even more favorable.

It looks like the storm total at Richmond will be 2.60", a new daily record. The CLI will be sent around 1:30am, but if that is correct, today will go down as the 2nd wettest January day on record. The below dates featured the previous top 3 wettest January days at RIC. Date Value 01/06/1962 3.31" 01/23/1935 2.51" 01/28/1952 2.07" Also, RIC had a wind gust to 59mph at the 9pm ob so the higher winds that the NAM showed yesterday looks to have verified, at least in spots.

The back end of the squall line is entering the Hampton Roads area. Definitely reminded me of a summer downpour when it passed through here. Just wind and rain, no thunder or lightning.

The 18Z GEFS mean was a step back from 12Z, but it still has an accumulating snow signal for the 16-17th and around the 20-21st. Hopefully, the 12z's numbers are closer to reality. The 18Z operational run was unremarkable. 12Z GEFS MEAN 18Z GEFS MEAN

Power outages are starting to add up. KRIC is officially up to 1.53" of rain through 7pm and counting. The daily rainfall record was 1.41" set back in 1932.