RIC Airport

Yup, and you know I had to look at #47.

So, looking at the 12Z EPS, we can see why February 5th to 10th is a period of interest. There were a few hits, but mostly nothing. Hopefully, the hits increase in the days ahead, particularly as we get later in the month. Interestingly, a couple of the hits were HUGE. But, that's also why the 50th percentile map showed nothing, because only a couple of the members (looking at #47) are responsible for why the mean is as high as it is.

The 6z GFS was great, but I only get excited when I see consistency and ensemble support. And it was night and day from its 00z run, which I was up for, but I didn't notice anything remotely interesting. As I said yesterday, the 5th to 10th period must be watched more closely, but it's still too far out to take anything seriously. I am happy we "see" signals for February because the Euro weeklies/GEFS extended are nice and we want to start seeing the operational and ensembles transition to the advertised mid-February to March pattern soon. Also, @ldub23, we already established that the 31st/1st is not our storm. When you look at the flow and the track of that energy, along with a marginal airmass, it just makes sense. Plus, there was never any ensemble support for that event. And lastly, I personally put little faith in models like the ICON and CMC, they don't have a good track record for leading the way with snowstorms.

Very happy to see they are consistent. I think we are also on the verge of witnessing the operational runs head in that direction. There was also a nice uptick in the snowfall in the last couple of days. Richmond was at 4.4" on Monday, 5.6" now, and I suspect it will continue to increase. There will be an updated snow chart tomorrow.

Well, it hit 70°F at RIC and ORF today. We certainly got way more sunshine than even I expected. I would argue today through Friday is a torch even though record highs are in the mid-upper 70s. However, the low temperature at RIC will struggle to drop below 60°F the next couple of nights, which will easily break the record-high minimum for the dates and also rival the highest ever observed in the entire month. This will also drive the daily departure from average to the +20 to +25 range. EPS still has us going back to more reasonable temps after Saturday. I am not sold on snow the 30th-1st, even though there have been some signals. Meanwhile, the period between the 5th and 10th must be watched more closely.

I also suspect it was cold enough to kill them off, which I agree is a good thing. It will certainly feel like spring this week and it will turn humid, too! Really hoping we can score in February and March with some good cold and snow, it's been disappointing for our area and it sucks we were so close to seeing decent snow last week. For hour 198, while there's been a few operational GFS runs showing snow around the 31st, I would not bet on it with the set up. Also, it doesn't have ensemble support nor has the Euro/EPS consistently supported it. @ldub23, I like this set up between hour 348 and 360 on the 6Z GFS. There is a strong high over the Great Lakes with moisture overrunning to the south. The problem I see right now is, it's way out there (300+ hours), it's also a completely new scenario from the 00Z run, which you can see in the 3rd and 4th map below, and it did not have ensemble support (they look rainy). Obviously we hope later runs have this set up, but we need more consistency before we take it seriously. These are those two maps from the 00z GFS, there is hardly any cold air east of the Rockies and completely different set up from 6z GFS. Also, there was no ensemble support on this morning 6z GEFS. But, this is meaningless with it being so far out.

So, looking at the temperatures on the 18z GFS ensembles, it's still a pretty mild look through the first seven days of February. Yes, we cool down after this weekend, but it's only for a few days before we begin a slight moderation again. It's not a torch, but it still would yield slightly positive departures from the average. So, today's Euro weeklies are on par with expectations that the 9th to 15th is (hopefully) the transition period to a colder pattern with legitimate snow chances.

Doesn't exactly jive with how the last 24 hours of the GFS depicted the first week of February, but the updated Euro weeklies continued to paint the theme of a warm early February followed by a cold 2nd half of the month and into March, which you can see in the animation below. Also, the snow mean ticked up from the other day. Although there are still some shutouts, quite a few members have > 10" of snow at RIC, some even around 20"+, through the period ending March 8th. There are more shutouts for Norfolk and Elizabeth City, but there still appears to be some hope.

It looks to be a fairly potent shot of cold. It also tried to bring snow with the passage of the cold front on the 31st. Then ridging returns to the east, and we moderate for at least several days, but it probably won't be as mild as what we'll see later this week. But, even the warm-up in early February looks temporary because the pattern is reshuffling into what looks to be something more favorable somewhere around the 10th and later. This window could still shift to the left or right, but something more wintery for the east is what most long-range models agree on. Hopefully this time our area can score.

I posted that only to increase hope, not to say I genuinely believed it. Plus, as was shown, only one member had it, while others were warm and rainy. Also, later runs of the GEFS took it away, so it's not surprising the operational GFS you posted didnt match that one snowy member from yesterday's 18Z GEFS. So, as I've shared with you, look at the ensembles and identify trends rather than posting the 384-hour operational GFS and taking it as gospel. I highlighted earlier that the pattern should become more favorable as we progress in February, particularly after about February 10th, based on what I see now. But, it's beyond that, probably mid to late February into early March when it looked the best. Until I begin seeing the ensembles trend earlier, that's what I'll be sticking to. And while it's past peak climate, it can still snow in our region in late February and early March.

The end of the 18Z GEFS indicates an earlier change. Let's hope there is an earlier shift. Also, one ensemble member obliterated NC and SE VA from the 4th to the 5th of February with 14" of snow falling at Norfolk and 18" at Elizabeth City. Only one member, but it could be a sign we could be back in the game sooner than we think.

Unless somehow that shortwave around the 28th-1st turns into something (which is a long shot for us this far south), it's still looking like ~2/10 and later for any significant chance of snow opportunities. Below are the H5 maps from today's 12Z GEFS (hour 384) and EPS (hour 360). After the storm around the 28th-1st moves away, a couple days of cold follow it before there is ridging building back into the east, and we moderate. _______________________________________________________________________________ Today's Euro weeklies show the change around the 10th. Here is the look on 10 FEB as the trough is beginning to move back toward the east coast with increasing heights in the EPO, AO, NAO domains. The only teleconnection that doesn't look great continues to be the PNA (lack of a west ridge), but the euro weeklies do show it neutral to slightly positive. FEB 10th FEB 15th FEB 20th FEB 25th MAR 1st MAR 6th _______________________________________________________________________________ After the 10th is when the snowfall mean begins to increase, with the period from about the 15th to March 1st being the highest. _______________________________________________________________________________ The below snow charts take longer to update, but these are from the run two days ago, and you can see snow hits begin to increase in earnest after about the 10/12th at Richmond and Norfolk.

The other day in this post, I mentioned how some of the ensembles were showing a snow threat in the last couple of days of the month and how, after next week's ridge, a trough was building back into the east after about 1/27. It's something to monitor, but at the very least, we get sharply colder for a couple of days before higher heights begin building back into the east. It's beyond that where things become uncertain as the pattern continues to reshuffle. Also, the GFS is trending slightly cooler with next week's temperatures. There looks to be rain opportunities from about Wednesday through Sunday. The timing of the clouds, rain, and passage of the front next weekend will determine whether there can be widespread low 70s or just mid-upper 60s, especially for Richmond and points north and west, as C VA could be influenced by what looks to be a CAD signature for part of that stretch. Below are the 1pm temperatures for next Wednesday through Saturday on today's 12Z GFS.

Yeah, seems to have waned some, too. But we won't escape the cold. Below are the Euro temps for 3pm tomorrow. Almost all stations are below freezing. But, if the Euro is correct, we are torching a week later with widespread 70s next Saturday at 1pm. This pattern change will be brutal, hopefully, we don't verify that warm and we get back to cold and snow. We get 70°F+ most of the year.

It made it in the official ob, too! It's moving SE near Williamsburg and will be across Hampton Roads, soon. Actually, I'd say the 3K NAM I posted last night did pretty well today.

It was expected and also lined up with what the ensembles have shown. The pattern is changing, and this next one will likely last about 3 weeks before it improves again. Hopefully, it's more favorable for us before we run out of time.

Nice! It looks like there is a redevelopment to the north. It's just a matter of how far south it gets, but there is a good chance of some snow showers, it's just that not everyone will see them. Wakefield has also mentioned the afternoon snow shower chance.

Did anyone see snow this morning? RIC recorded 0.05" of rain between 5am and 6am. Also, temperatures were 3-4 degrees higher than what the 00z 3K NAM model I posted last night had. Also, it might've been too far south with the 2nd batch of precip. But maybe the snow streamers will verify this evening and maybe even overnight and tomorrow morning for parts of Hampton Roads.

The 00z 3K NAM only has spotty precip moving through the region between 2am and 9am. Temperatures around Richmond are 32°F-35°F while this swings through, so the model tries to depict a mix or rain from about Ashland to Tappahanock and points southward. At the same time, an area of rain is developing across Hampton Roads with temperatures around 40°F. Meanwhile, a more widespread area of snow is occurring north of about Caroline County up to DCA, so the dry slot has won according to this run, @Stormpc. As the low pulls away to our NE, the 3K NAM tries to develop a 2nd batch of snow between 10am and 11am, which swings through the Richmond area and onto the Northern Neck between 12pm and 3pm. Temperatures are in the mid-30s, so it will probably not be easy to accumulate given the time of day. After this, the model tries to develop snow squalls/streamers that move through the Richmond area between 4pm and 6pm and between 5pm and 10pm across Hampton Roads. I think the window over Hampton Roads is longer due to the possibility of river/bay enhancement. Not everyone will see them, and the models probably can’t pinpoint exactly where any bay enhancement will be set up if any does at all, so the location may fluctuate in later runs. Even though it’s very cold aloft, surface temperatures at the time are still just above freezing, so there would be little, if any, accumulation from these, but will be fun as you mentioned. Also this phenomenon rarely happens. NAM even has a streamer coming down the Chesapeake Bay overnight Friday, but only reaches the west coast of the Eastern Shore.

I had time to look at the 18Z suite, and the idea of snow or rain streamers (snow most likely) developing behind the low tomorrow afternoon and evening as the next Arctic airmass penetrates the area is gaining traction. Below is a slowed down 18Z 3K NAM radar simulation, which goes in motion from 1am Friday to 7am Saturday. The precipitation begins entering our region between 2am and 4am and moves out by noon. The 18Z Euro and 18Z GFS were even more aggressive with snow around Richmond in the morning. Also, around 4pm, you can see where the 3K NAM has snow entering the region northwest of RIC and moving through Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore between 6pm and 10pm. It looks limited, but the models are beginning to pick up on this idea of snow, even in Southside Hampton Roads, @SnowBeach@ldub23. I froze the radar at 8pm below where it shows a snow squall moving east between Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The temperature at ORF is 34°F, and it's very cold aloft (850mb temps ~-10°C), so it should be snow with this approaching airmass. It will be interesting to see whether the 00z suite maintains this, even for your area, @Stormpc.

Here are the latest maps from AKQ.

Wakefield just issued an advisory for areas north of RIC and over towards the Northern Neck 1 inch, maybe 2" in spots. I hope Ladysmith can score! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 310 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 VAZ509>511-190415- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.240119T0900Z-240119T1800Z/ Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Including the cities of Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland 310 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch, with up to 2 inches possible. * WHERE...Western Louisa, Eastern Louisa and Western Hanover Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please call 5 1 1.

@RVAman, @eaglesin2011The 12Z Euro was actually similar to the GFS and tries to put a heavier band of snow between 4am and 10am over the Richmond metro area. But, challenges with respect to QPF amounts and surface temperatures remain. Interestingly, the Euro does have RIC right at freezing from 7am to 9am so that would increase the odds of getting that coating to half inch in more areas if this is correct.

The issue for us is limited moisture (Trace to 0.20”) and borderline surface temperatures (32°F-35°F). The GFS is the most aggressive and farthest south with the precip shield compared to other guidance. While I admit the GFS did great identifying the placement of Monday’s snow band, I have low confidence snow will accumulate this far south. But other areas north and northwest of the city have a shot, especially north of Ashland toward Fredericksburg, where more moisture will be available. The 12Z 3K NAM (below) depicts this thinking, although its radar simulation does clip areas as far south as Short Pump and Ashland with snow between 4 am and 7 am, while the city and points south might be warm enough for rain, at least for a portion of the precip. It also tried to bring some snow/rain showers on the back side of the low tomorrow evening as colder air is rushing in. The 12Z HRRR, on the other hand, didn’t have much precip south of Fredericksburg. @wasnow215That said, I still would not rule out a period of light snows farther south, including the city, between 4 am and 10 am, with 4-7 am being the best chance for anything to stick since temperatures will be closest to freezing. I don’t believe it will be widespread or long-lasting enough to wreak havoc, though. The absolute worst-case scenario is probably a coating to a half-inch, IMO. All models warm us rapidly as the morning progresses, with RIC getting into the low or mid-40s by afternoon.

Fwiw, here is the map AKQ put out this afternoon. From what I've seen with my own eyes and overall gut feeling, I feel this is appropriate although that doesn't mean flakes won't fall south of Kings Dominion. I also peaked at the Euro weeklies from this morning, and early February was pretty "meh." But, the pattern started improving after about the 10th through the end of the month and into March. I posted the 500mb height map ending at 00z on March 3rd. Once the pattern improved, it looked similar to how it looked much of the winter on the weeklies. Nonetheless, I'd rather gamble with February than December since it tends to be colder, so hopefully, it produces even if it takes until March for something good. Some other mechanisms, such as the MJO, can hopefully provide additional help. Truthfully, I was not impressed with the snowfall output, but at the same time, they've provided false hope all winter. The city snowfall charts are from the run two days ago, but the regional snowfall mean map is from today, btw.