RIC Airport

@ldub23

It's why this thread exists so we don't have to rely on finding Richmond or even Tidewater on the maps often posted in the forum's LR thread, because it's DC centric. Some posters recognize there are posters that live outside of the DMV, but most don't or care.

This is a rain to snow scenario. For the immediate Richmond area, surface temps are above freezing, but since it's below freezing at the 850mb level the precip should fall as snow after about 10pm Friday for areas north of about Petersburg. With good rates, the snow could still stick especially with the time of day, but the surface temps won't make this a 10:1 ratio like the snow maps show. Best rates look to be (per Euro) between 2am and 4am. Precip could be over before sunrise. This is the ONE hour QPF amount, heaviest is between 3am and 4am.

We can afford an even more southern shift and maybe your area can see some flakes, hopefully for us that would also mean colder surface temps. Won't be a 10:1 ratio unfortunately for Richmond based on current data, but even a quick 0.5" to inch on the grass would be awesome though.

There is our local map, from pivotal.

Euro looks even better to me.

12Z NAM did appear a bit drier for NoVA/DC, but seems to be aligned with other models for our area with generally 0.20" to 0.30" of QPF. This run has a precip jackpot around Tappahanock, Northern Neck area.

I remain optimistic either way. We'll take anything we can get, even if it's something like that one morning back in December, that melted within a few hours. There is a boundary layer issue, but there still should be a 2-3 hour period where 850s are cold enough for it to snow, thereafter depends on the rates. It'll be a tough call because the window is so brief, but at least the timing of the day is favorable.

The 18z Euro was a tick north of 12z with the Saturday morning snow. The timing still looks to be 1am to 7am. There is not much QPF anyway, but we'll take what we can get. For RIC, all the airport needs is 0.3" to reach 1.0" for the season. As mentioned, QPF is limited only about 0.20" to 0.30" on average, but we'll take anything we can get if it's snow. I wasn't too impressed with the 18Z EPS, most members have an accumulation tendency (assuming a 10:1 ratio ) north of us. But, this is still something to monitor.

Anyone remember this storm? This map was from exactly 10 years ago, a storm that took the more old-school Miller A track up from the Gulf. We were lucky with this one because it wasn't a textbook setup, and, in fact, the NAO was positive. But we did have an arctic airmass driven by the -EPO that dominated the 2013-14 winter pattern, and this storm developed as the arctic airmass was retreating. Snow started in the afternoon of 2/12/2014, with temperatures in the mid-20s. After about 4-5" of snow had fallen, areas around Richmond began mixing to IP and ZR before a dry slot, and an extended lull began after midnight as temperatures rose to around freezing. The second half of the storm started in the afternoon of 2/13/2014 with a few hours of +SN where another 2-4" had fallen. Richmond officially recorded 5.8" of snow, but many areas west of US HWY 15 had 15-20" as they avoided the dry slot and was able to hang on to cold longer as the storm moved up the coast.

No change on the 18z GFS for Saturday morning. Keeps the snow north of us with some passing showers here. Also, the GFAF model being shown on the TV stations looks pretty bullish for the Saturday morning snow threat. The GFS does, however, revive the threat around the 24th. Right where we want it, right?

Well, the Euro continues to revive the weekend storm. Looks like a 3-6 hour window on Saturday morning from about 1am to 9am. Temperatures around RIC fall from the mid-upper 30s to around freezing before the precip lifts out around 8am or 9am. It's not looking like a 10:1 ratio, so keep that in mind when looking at the snow map. Also, as we've seen with recent storms, there is still plenty of time for fluctuations on the track. I would not get my hopes up; GFS had practically nothing.

18 GFS just picked up on the next threat around the 24th.

Euro provides hope for this weekend and the EPS still has that signal around the 24th, fwiw. We have to hang in longer, especially with what is happening now in the NE, where models shifted dramatically over the last couple of days.

EPS had a signal around the 24th so if there is a glimmer of hope, that is it. But only a handful of members so take that fwiw.

Looking at the Euro, it might be time to close the blinds. It was similar to the GFS in handling the n/s and s/s energy.

We are grasping at straws. As long as the models show different solutions, I think there is still a chance. But I wouldn't bet on it with how this winter has gone.

The Canadian is faster with the n/s wave and tries to give us snow showers with that next Saturday. It's much slower with the s/s wave so it amplifies and comes up the coast as a Miller A storm next Tuesday into Wednesday before sliding off of Hatteras.

12z GFS tries to give us a little snow from the n/s wave, but the s/s wave doesn't really amplify and stays south of us before moving out to sea. Looks more like a cold front now, that gives all our precip.

GFS was suppressed with the southern stream wave, which the below was as far north as the precip got. Just sharing in case people wondered, I'm sure this won't be the final solution, but quite a change over the last 24 hours. I like that it's still south. Plenty of things can make this work out in our favor with wiggle room on the models.

A lot of these people on X don't speak for our area. And personally, I'm not a fan of that dude, but that's a different discussion.

I can only do the EPS members. Unfortunately, from what I've seen, NCEP doesn't release them. But this is the best I can do. Here are some charts from a few places in the bullseye. Widespread 22-34".

Today's 12z EPS maps are the best we've seen before the mid-January threats. It's been frustrating, for sure, so we'll see. But, there is still a decent signal for the 17th-25th.

As I mentioned the other day, there are two opportunities. The 00z GFS and Euro had a rainstorm for around PD and the 12z Euro has already advertised a more southern and colder solution for us so more confidence is needed before taking anything too seriously. Then we'll see how the second threat around evolves in the coming days. The 12z GEFS had a handful of hits, including another member (p10) that obliterates our area February 23rd-24th. Overall the GEFS was a nice improvement over yesterday's runs, but there is still a lot of spread. I don't know if we should give up on the winter with these signals.

Euro has a rainstorm for 2/17 to 2/18 like the GFS. This is not going to be the storm we're looking for.