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RIC Airport

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  1. RIC Airport
  2. RIC Airport
    Yes, but mostly the 1st from looking at the dates.
  3. RIC Airport
  4. RIC Airport
    Also, @eaglesin2011 confluence is no substitute for a bona fide high to our north, so that makes warm air advection easier in this setup. The Euro could be too cold at the upper levels.
  5. RIC Airport
    Right. And the key is how much to take away from the clown maps because of it.
  6. RIC Airport
  7. RIC Airport
    I am worried about mixing.
  8. RIC Airport
    EPS for 1/6 event, backs up the Op.
  9. RIC Airport
    Snow depth map, fwiw Also, Euro doesn't get RIC above freezing for the entire event. There was a much smaller window above freezing at 925mb and 850mb between hour 74 and 78.
  10. RIC Airport
  11. RIC Airport
    Euro coming in STRONG!!!
  12. RIC Airport
    This is good to see and could preview what the 12z Euro has. I'd urge caution with the 10:1 ratio maps though. It could be picking up a large amount of IP/ZR.
  13. RIC Airport
    Slower storm seems to make a difference. 6z euro looks slower and slightly weaker low. Less warm air advection and coming in overnight instead of the afternoon. GFS has stuff in by 21z and the low is stronger.
  14. RIC Airport
    Definitely a south trend on the Euro and the EPS. 6z EPS 00z EPS
  15. RIC Airport
    00z ICON, fwiw was worse for NoVa.
  16. RIC Airport
    @Conway7305, at hour 84, even at 925mb, it's close to or slightly above freezing. This suggests that in later frames, the cold is continuing to get scoured out closer to the surface, so we will probably eventually flip. But, hard to really say, it's close.
  17. RIC Airport
    I think it's possible, but CAD may not be enough to help us at the 850mb level. If anything, CAD could cause us to never rise above freezing at the surface preventing us from turning to rain.
  18. RIC Airport
    There is maybe a 2-3 hour window of snow so that warm air intrusion aloft is coming in pretty fast. Also, since it only goes out to hour 84, it is hard to tell if/when we eventually flip to rain. Of course, everything is subject to further fluctuation.
  19. RIC Airport
    The 00z NAM was pretty far north with the mixing.
  20. RIC Airport
    FWIW, the 00z run of the NBM model seems to follow this theme. It was explained to me that it includes models from previous cycles, which may cause it to lag if the deterministic models are changing drastically.
  21. RIC Airport
    I don't know why people like camping out in there. All the good mets often have their posts drowned by the nonsense. Not worth it.
  22. RIC Airport
    The 18z EPS seems to suggest that an inch is more likely than not across the metro area, especially just north of the city. New NAM is rolling in now. It will be interesting to see what the short-range models do with the mid-level warmth and how far north it gets in the coming runs. There is still time for some fluctuations as @Rhino16alluded to before, the data comes on shore I think tomorrow afternoon so we should be all set with better sampling.
  23. RIC Airport
    No, I had to take a step back after seeing the trends. It looks like another NoVa special. It seems like it always happens now. 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024 and now 1/6/2025. I may periodically check, but I am not putting in as much tracking effort on the next threat until we get within 4 to 5 days. The models can't decide whether it's on or off.
  24. RIC Airport
    Seems like between hour 114 and 120 is iffy for RIC with the the 0°C line being close by and advancing just north of the city. Surface temps are around freezing, but can't tell whether this run gets RIC above freezing at the surface or not. It's close.
  25. RIC Airport
    Timing on this run, looks to be mid-late afternoon. 4PM 7PM 10PM 1AM
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