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RIC Airport

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  1. RIC Airport
    We are in a tough spot this go around, and no, I don't like what I see. The airport getting an inch is possible, but it's not 100%. Hopefully, the next storm will come through for our region. The back end snow offers the most hope, but the band's location differs from run to run.
  2. RIC Airport
    The latest GFS, fwiw. Still shows a band of snow on the backside.
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  5. RIC Airport
    Storm #2 next weekend coming in strong on the GFS.
  6. RIC Airport
  7. RIC Airport
    Still gets ugly with mixing and even a changeover to rain, but there is a nice deformation band swinging through Virginia on the back side.
  8. RIC Airport
    End of the ICON with the second storm.
  9. RIC Airport
    Yeah, I just realized he posted the snow map. Seems low to me as well.
  10. RIC Airport
    Mike Thomas from Fox 5 DC posted the GRAF model. Looked on the colder side, also picks up on the ULL. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1875382706227286149
  11. RIC Airport
    Yes! Here was the 18z run.
  12. RIC Airport
    Latest ICON
  13. RIC Airport
    That was the last HRRR frame at hour 48. I'd post the 3K NAM out to hour 60 and really don't want to.
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  16. RIC Airport
    Then we fall back below freezing for the back end snow.
  17. RIC Airport
    RIC gets above freezing between hr 63 and 72.
  18. RIC Airport
  19. RIC Airport
    Here is the 00z NAM at that same time. Lets see how it does in later panels.
  20. RIC Airport
    Yes, I know this is way out in time for the HRRR, but it has the snow at hour 48 (7pm Sunday), moving into the area.
  21. RIC Airport
    I should mention that the surface temperature only reached 33°F for about a 2-hour window before dropping below freezing after the storm passed. This was also when the 18z Euro indicated the potential for a deformation band to move through the area. The GFS also hinted at this possibility, but the location of the band has varied with each run.
  22. RIC Airport
    I agree, but it's typical of our office to be conservative. The same was done before the 12/9/2018 storm; we remember how that unfolded. LWX sometimes has the opposite problem. Another thing to note is that even the 18z Euro got RIC above freezing at the surface around noon-1 pm Monday. And to get the best snow, we want to be north of the 540 thickness line, and that pretty much camps out from about Harrisonburg to Fredericksburg for most of the event.
  23. RIC Airport
    The local TV stations are not as conservative.
  24. RIC Airport
    There will be mixing, unfortunately, and there are many times (not always) when the mixing gets pretty far north. As I mentioned before, we are dealing with antecedent cold vs a strong high in a place in upstate NY, and given the orientation of this storm, we are prone to mixing. Gotta use those Euro maps with caution.
  25. RIC Airport
    Wakefield is pretty conservative, but pretty typical for them. Mixing will be an issue, too bad we will be south of the 540 line.
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