RIC Airport

I hope so as well. Favorable patterns don't last and eventually break down, so we have to score when we can. But, when they do, do the patterns return? The end of the EPS showed a SE ridge forming.

We need the high responsible for next week's cold to exit off the coast northeast of us. 18Z GFS, for example, had the high exiting off ORF, setting the stage for SE winds ahead of the system arriving next Friday. The mid-levels get screwed up, all of I-95 mixes, and we even eventually turn over to rain. It's just one solution on the table. Let's see what later runs do.

At the end of the run, things look very interesting for the middle of the week.

18z Euro still shows a band of snow forming during the day Sunday into Sunday evening. QPF totals range from 0.10 to 0.20" on average. Temps at RIC look to be around 33°F at the start but fall to the upper 20s during this light event per this Euro run.

I don't think the mid-late week, whether it's one or two systems, is resolved. There is enough confidence in snow Sunday into Sunday night, but who sees the accumulations, and how much still needs to be resolved. The placement of snow as the low departs the area varies from run to run.

The placement of the band continues to shift, but still worth monitoring.

Thanks, was just about to post the wxbell map. Good signs.

It's time to start talking cold. Both the GFS and Euro show that RIC and ORF will remain below freezing for three consecutive days, while the Euro model indicates that both stations could stay below freezing for four days next week. The last instance of three or more consecutive days with high temperatures in the 20s or lower at both stations was in January 2018. Additionally, RIC has the potential to dip into the single digits for the first time since Christmas Eve of 2022. If this occurs for two nights in a row, it would be the first time this has happened since January 2018, when RIC hit -3°F. 12z Euro temps valid 1pm Tuesday 1/21 showing RIC at only 16°F and ORF 19°F. 12z Euro had RIC at 7°F at 7am Wednesday 1/22, ORF at 17, thanks to the warmer water keeping temps elevated depending on wind speed/direction.

Both Richmond and Norfolk have some good hits on the EPS charts. You can see EPS likes the 22nd-23rd the most, and there is the threat around the 26-27th popping up as well.

It will be interesting to see how the short term models perform as we approach the event in the next 2-3 days. Hopefully the axis of the heaviest snows is similar to what the 12z GFS run depicted. The latest GFS indicates a transition period from rain to snow between 3-4 PM and lasting until about 3-4 AM. In contrast, the Euro model suggests an earlier changeover, starting around noon and continuing until ~7 PM. The Euro is less aggressive and shows that the heaviest snowfall will remain north and west of Richmond. As you indicated, could be slight adjustments with the times from run to run, will need to monitor short term runs as we get closer.

It it wins next week over the GFS and Euro, then maybe I'll start looking at it more. 3rd threat on the GFS next Friday-Sat.

Mid week threat is suppressed and OTS on the GFS, but has a 3rd threat next Friday into Saturday.

Don't overlook the potential of snow Sunday evening. Both the GFS and Euro highlight this possibility, though to varying degrees. It all depends on strength and where the band forms but some lucky spots could get some minor accumulations. Here was the 6z Euro. 12Z GFS is just starting.

Getting a strong high pressure (1040-1050mb) in the right spot, say, over upstate NY, certainly helps. Oh, and a 50/50 low around the 40/70 benchmark.

18Z Euro AI looked very promising for accumulating snows on Sunday into Sunday night as a wave develops after the front passes on Saturday. It shows a similar scenario as the 12z Euro for the mid week storm. We have a coastal low arriving from the south, surface temps are below freezing, but we are above freezing at 850mb.

18Z GFS is even more aggressive with this wave that trails the front .

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1879282169052328269 GRAF model has it, too!

Maybe some snow showers overnight?

It was the biggest snowstorm since 2/6/2010. Temps started in the mid-20s, and 3-6" fell initially, followed by warmer temps where RIC peaked at 37°F under +RA. Temps dropped and there was another 2-4" on the back side of the storm, but eastern areas did better on the back end. As you can see from below, the storm started in the south. Even Charlotte recorded 8.4" before eventually flipping.

Right, just like the 2/13/2014 storm, the NAO was positive, but we had a cold antecedent airmass ahead of a Miller A low, but nothing to keep the cold fully locked in despite a good track. So eastern areas mixed, and even turned over to rain for a few hours as far west as RIC before another 2-3" on the back side saved us. The 2013-14 was another winter largely diven by the -EPO. Here is the AKQ map from that event. RIC did slightly worse recording only 5.8".

Quite a few more southern solutions on the EPS. ORF had bigger hits.

yup, i saw. on to 00z.

The only storm that comes to mind delivering anything close to this outcome is the February 12-13, 2014 storm. That's why when you don't have a bona fide high up north and you're relying on just an antecedent airmass, you're bound to have precipitation issues in an EPO-driven pattern. This airmass is colder than that storm, so we may get more snow, but mixing may be inevitable even with a track like this, especially along and east of US 15. Obviously, things will change. There is no need to go into too much detail over one run. The Euro just brought back the storm after taking it away.

Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees?