RIC Airport

OTS

Crazy! It's like the December 1989 SE storm that traveled farther up the coast.

Will this model finally beat the Euro and GFS?

Houston, we have a problem.

It's only slightly better than 18z, but not nearly as good as the 12z or even the 6z run from this morning. But, could be a trend back in the right direction. Looks to me for the Richmond metro area, looking at this run only, the best time for accumulating snows is between 3pm and 7pm. We will be fighting boundary layer issues and surface temps above freezing up until ~3pm. Taking this run verbatim.

Sunday is not expected to have much impact; however, if enough snow accumulates in areas given this arctic air is moving in, there could be possible delays or cancellations on Tuesday. Most places will be closed on Monday. Meanwhile, the 18z Euro AI suggests a slightly more northern track for the mid-week storm. This is a favorable trend to root for as we get closer to the event. It has 0.20" of QPF for Richmond and between 0.30 and 0.40" for Hampton Roads. With air temperatures ranging from 20 to 30 degrees, this could lead to decent minor event and is worth monitoring.

Here is what AKQ is thinking so far, @JFLETCHERbullseye.

Here is 18z Euro for the Sunday threat.

18z Euro is also farther north. Only goes to hour 144 though.

NBC 12 is on board for the Sunday threat.

18Z GFS, like the 12z run, has the heaviest precip for Sunday's event north and west of RIC.

Yes, hopefully the Canadian can score a win. However, I was not terribly impressed with the EPS, signals are there, but I guess I'm just impatient

FWIW, the 18Z NAM is within range for the Sunday threat and has the axis of snows over most of our region of the state, except for extreme SE VA. Pretty far out in rage for the NAM, but an interesting development.

EPS mean thru 360 is pitiful considering all the threats.

It also has a storm affecting the whole east coast at the end of the run. Wasn't ideal for us, but perhaps it signals the infamous big storm as the pattern begins the collapse?

Euro had mid week storm, but too far south. It also had a 3rd threat next Saturday.

12z Euro breaking hearts for Sunday as well as next week.

There is indication the pattern will break down toward the end of the month. The question is, will there be a reload later on? But, that's so far out, will need to look at teleconnections and ensembles. I haven't paid much attention to the weeklies this year because of how they performed last year, but the last I saw is that we were on the cooler side of things well into February.

Meanwhile, if you want hope for later next week, here is the Canadian. @chris624wx, @wasnow215, et al.

It all depends on where the precip bands are set up. I think the issue with us is the coldest air not arriving in time. This run is warmer; we are 37-40°F when the precip starts around 7 am, instead of 33-34°F that earlier runs had. So, we suffer because we spend too much time trying to cool the atmosphere down to the surface, and by then, most of the precipitation is over, thus lower snow accumulations.. GFS didn't have RIC reach freezing until 20z Sunday (3PM), and there is still a warm layer aloft that bisects the Richmond metro area at that time.

12z GFS has a similar solution to that of the Euro for the Sunday threat. Has the best chance of accumulations north and west of RIC.

00z GFS is either going to be a carbon copy of 18z or actually cut well west of us.

Placement of the higher totals on both GFS and Euro continue to shift from run to run. But, it's good to see they are honing in on our part of the state.

There is no real change on the Sunday snow idea, except that both GFS and Euro have an earlier arrival time on Sunday, and this run of the GFS had a bit more QPF in spots (>0.40"). Temps look to start around freezing at the onset, then drop as colder air filters in.