RIC Airport

Here are the 18Z HRRR and 3K NAM runs. The 3k has been pretty aggressive. Will be interesting to see which short range model performs the best. HRRR 3K NAM

Excellent, I had a feeling they would upgrade the southside!!! Also, the latest Euro increased QPF across the region. The 6z run 0.12" for ORF, now it's up to 0.20". Yeah, I think a coating to a half inch is certainly possible, especially south and east of the city. RIC is still 21°F at noon, anything that falls later this evening will stick right away. I would be more concerned about dry air and virga the farther north and west you go.

QPF totals on the 12z GFS are virtually the same for Hampton Roads and NE NC as the last 2-3 runs. However, the latest runs have expanded the precip shield farther west into Central VA.

It's always cool to see that, especially when it benefits northern Virginia Beach during snowstorms.

Yup, the 13z HRRR had a nice uptick, even from the 12z run, over southside and interior parts of NC. I think AKQ's expansion of the advisories was spot on, taken this into account.

12z 3K NAM just finished, still looking good for Hampton Roads and NE NC. Wakefield issued advisories for southside Hampton Roads early this morning, but then farther west a few hour ago to include Newport News, Hampton, Isle of Wight and Southampton. Also, interior NE NC counties were added.

00Z GFS was lower than the 18z run, but still gets 1-2" up for Hampton Roads.

Yup, I did see the watches earlier and meant to mention it here, they may need to consider expanding them north of the border. The 00z 3K NAM had a notable increase in QPF, now 0.30-0.40" as far north as Hampton Roads and even 0.10" as far west as Williamsburg. With air temps in the low 20s, such ratios can easily get you a few inches.

Yeah, that phenomenon usually doesn't last long enough to produce anything substantial, although there are rare occasions when more occurs. I'll have to do some research. Here is one case of it. https://www.weather.gov/akq/25Dec1999

Just a smidge.

Here is the latest GRAF model. You can see the Chesapeake Bay effect enhancement as it pulls away. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1881471384284545259

18z 3K NAM feels like the 1/23/2003 storm I mentioned the other day.

3k NAM has the snow reaching as far north as PHF, but it's very brief, maybe an hour or so at most before precip slides back to the SE. 12z GFS just came in, has a more expansive precip field. This is as far north and west as it gets.

I paid monthly for a few months last winter and then got an annual this summer. I won't do that again because I didn't start using it routinely until November. I am not here much in the summer, but I'll become active if there is a hurricane threat. Many people track summer storms, but to me, they are too routine and not as interesting. I guess I'll cherish the remains of the small piles of dirty snow in parking lots and along sidewalks during this arctic outbreak. The leftover snow in my backyard took a beating yesterday as about 80% of what lasted for the last 1.5 weeks melted. As of this morning, only a tiny amount remained, but that melted today. Seems like our next possible threat is not until around 1/30 - 2/1.