RIC Airport

00Z GFS delivered. So much time to go.

December has potential now that we're finally getting cold. 18Z GFS had a decent hit. The models have been signaling an early December storm threat off and on for days. Timing and placement have differed so something to watch.

BWI: 19.6” DCA: 17.3” IAD: 24.7" RIC: 14.5” LYH: 16.9”

KRIC reached freezing for the first time this season this morning, with a low of 30°F. This means it's time to unlock this thread so let's hope winter 2024-25 proves to be more fruitful than the past few seasons. Last winter, the highest amount of snow recorded in a single day was just 0.5 inches on 1/15/24. Additionally, there was 0.2 inches measured on the morning of 12/11/23. It has now been over 1,000 days since the airport recorded an inch or more of snow. Let's hope this streak comes to an end soon.

Of course 18Z GEFS took it away, but I looked at the charts for the 12z run and p25 dropped the following totals in VA, MD and NC. Virginia Wallops Island: 50" West Point: 43" Williamsburg: 40" Newport News: 40" Hampton: 40" Tappahanock: 39" Accomack: 35" Wakefield: 32" Petersburg: 30" Chesapeake: 28" Suffolk: 28" Richmond: 25" Hanover: 25" Chesterfield: 25" Norfolk: 22" Franklin: 22" Virginia Beach: 22" Maryland Salisbury: 53" Cambridge: 41" Lexington Park: 37" Ocean City: 30" Ridgely: 25" Easton: 25" Clinton: 25" North Carolina Edenton: 24" Ahoskie: 22" Elizabeth City: 10" Currituck: 10"

Yeah, RIC only recorded 7.2". A pretty boring event, just very light to only occasionally moderate snow. The super cold temps are what saved it. Got another storm a week later (2/26/2015) where about 5-6" fell in only a few hours, more in the Hampton Roads area. The snow started around midnight and quickly became heavy up until it ended around 6am. Officially, 5.0" fell at RIC and 5.6" at ORF. I thought I had saved more images from that storm, it could be because I was still living in Seattle at the time, but tracked from afar.

@JFLETCHER, This is from the snowstorm on February 16-17, 2015. It was a very cold snowstorm for all of Virginia, one of the coldest snowstorms, at least in my lifetime, and one of the rare occasions where the entire state was under a winter storm warning. RIC was in the low to mid-teens for most of the snowstorm. Hoping to see something like this again.

It's sad, but winters like this one and last year are becoming more routine. We will still get cold and snow (maybe even a HECS occasionally) with the right pattern and timing, but it will become more challenging, and cold will be more limited in intensity and duration. Winters in Richmond and the mid-Atlantic overall have declined since about 1990. Our oceans are torching, which is part of the problem.

The most QPF I saw was maybe 0.60" on ONE of the runs about 24 hours or so out. Most amounts were in the 0.20 to 0.40" range, and the coldest temp I noticed on the models around DCA was 32°F-33°F. And it was always supposed to be a rain-to-snow situation with temps dropping from the mid and upper 30s, which causes you to lose QPF. Given the marginal temps and limited QPF, I don't understand why up to 3-5" was even in the forecast anywhere nearby. @Stormpcno, but I was up for the bust to see the weenie tears. When DCA was still 40°F at 1am, I knew it was over. Even at 1am, the forecast still called for "heavy snow" and 2-4" (see below). They ended up recording 0.1" of snow and only .10" of QPF.

Wakefield is still pretty bullish for @JFLETCHER's area and toward the Northern Neck. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 VAZ064-075-076-509>511-521-170430- /O.CON.KAKQ.WW.Y.0004.240217T0300Z-240217T1200Z/ Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa- Western Hanover-Western Essex- Including the cities of Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, and Tappahannock 319 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please call 5 1 1. For the latest road information in North Carolina, go to http://DriveNC.gov.

Also, @JB Fins Duncan started a YT channel. I know he had freelanced at some stations since his retirement from NBC12. https://www.youtube.com/@weatherspin

My honor. I went all in because of the El Nino. Yes, we got the moisture but couldn't get good cold. And when we finally got a decent cold airmass, it was centered a bit too far west, and that 1/15 storm tracked just west and north of us along the boundary giving places like Chattanooga and Nashville 6+" of snow. I am not active during the summer and not a severe weather fan since thunderstorms are so routine around here that it's hard to get excited about them. I track hurricanes, though, so I'll chime in if there is a legitimate threat. But, it's been a while even for that, maybe in 2018 when Florence hit NC and spawned some tornadoes nearby. Hopefully, next winter delivers. Whether I will live here for the entire time remains to be seen. I might be moving away again, but not certain where yet. I will probably know at the end of the year.

Euro was also lower for DC proper. Looks like the best places to be are MoCo and toward BWI, parts of the Delmarva.

Yeah, I'm monitoring. I won't be leaving until 6pm or 7pm if I even leave at all. I have a ton of things to do this weekend so going up will set me back so it's also something I'm weighing.

I am having second thoughts. I might drive up to Arlington later today. Will make a decision soon. I can't help myself.