WhiteoutWX

This storm may have started out looking like an ice event days ago, but I think the true story will be heavy deformation snows on the backside of the system. NAM is painting quite the potent band, and while it's temperature are marginal verbatim, just looking at the synoptic features and applying conceptual models, it will be a heavy, wet pastejob of a snowstorm for someone over western OK, possibly extending into northern/central OK depending on the track. This would likely continue on east from there. I think the GFS is total trash at this point. NAM and Euro all the way. But JMHO...

Really would depend on the track of the upper low. But usually more amped equals further north. Until the other models start showing it though I'm not quite biting yet.

NAM hangs the energy back and is slower like the Euro. But it’s also more consolidated and amped with the upper energy. Closes off at 500mb and looks to have quite the backside snows. Really this is a much different storm depiction altogether than what was being shown yesterday and previously. Models were then showing mostly a warm air advection/overrunning scenario and open wave. This is a more consolidated storm. Long range NAM so beware but the Euro was also slower so this could be the start of a trend.

GFS just seems unrealistic to me. However, the keys here are the surface wind direction, as well as keeping steady precipitation falling during the day. I think this may be what is contributing to the warmer solution on the Euro. It brings the precipitation in much later, starting Friday evening really. Without precipitation falling/wetbulbing processes...the marginally cold surface temps will be able to warm sufficiently during the day on Friday, regardless of wind direction. The NAM is really the perfect scenario if you want to lock in the surface cold layer.

The NAM just locks in that surface cold layer and never relents with a lot of freezing rain and sleet across central OK. Looks like it wants to drop some heavy snow on top of that just after the end of the run too. Seen many times where the global models scour out the cold air too quickly in these types of events. Even though it is long range NAM, meteorologically speaking, there's no reason for the temps to warm at the surface like the GFS is showing if we keep a continued northerly surface wind and attendant cooler/drier air feed. The NAM just seems more realistic to me.

Not really buying the GFS temps at the moment. But it comes down to how quickly the high to the north moves east. NAM keeps it more overhead and therefore keeps a more northerly component to the surface winds, and hence colder temps. GFS moves it out quicker and winds come around more easterly.

Much warmer across Oklahoma too on the Euro. Went from being the coldest model to the warmest.

I can't speak for the whole area but I can tell you that for Oklahoma City the period from 2015-2018 had the lowest three winter snow total on record there. It's been rough out there for snow lovers.

I've always thought the idea of a chasecation seemed pretty risky. Even excluding this years absolute trainwreck into a pile of dumpster fires of a season...during a normal season a week of poorly timed troughs could mean the whole vacation is a wash. Maybe I'm just not a "dedicated" enough chaser though lol.

With quite the stout cap to go along with it. I think Saturday the only hope is further north with stronger forcing. I haven’t looked to closet though tbh.

This is mostly in jest, but when the long range GFS has been consistently showing hurricane landfalls in the gulf in May you know the overall pattern is total crap.

I’m hopeful that either one of the days, Tuesday/Wednesday, will end up being a decent chase day. The synoptic pieces are there so that gives some confidence at this range. But I’m also trying to not get too excited given the 6/7 day lead time at this point. That said, Euro is really nice looking.

Just the simple fact it’s showing a legit ridge on the east coast for what seems like the first time this year has me encouraged.

The 00z Euro looked to be a nudge towards the GFS regarding more significant troughing over the west starting around day 7. Let’s see if we can get some persistence now.

Euro doesn't look anything like the GFS unfortunately with relatively weak flow across most of the plains. Still like 10 days out there and definitely a period to watch (the only thing to watch at this point).

As a local in Oklahoma who also enjoys winter weather I think the biggest source of frustration has been we have now had to endure two consecutive almost record breakingly boring and snowless winters which sandwiched last spring which was rather meh from a chasing perspective. And now this spring looks to at the very least be dead for the first half. It’s hard not to get antsy as a weather enthusiast when you’ve gone this long without any real stretch of interesting weather. I know the season ain’t over but it’s a real exercise in patience waiting for *something* interesting to happen.

There always the chance for late May magic, I’m reserving calling the season for at least another few weeks, even as bad as things look at the moment.

Can you elaborate on why the GWO phase space plots have you concerned? From everything I’ve read Phases 1/2 are the best phases for tornado activity in the US. The current GEFS forecast has us solidly in phase 2 in about 5 days, with the long range taking it into high magnitude phase 2 territory. Is there something else you were seeing?

I guess I should have been more specific as to which part of Texas I was referring to. I meant more in the Big Spring to Wichita Falls area which is at a much lower elevation. On closer inspection though the dryline will likely be much further west and you’re right those dews would go further at higher elevations. And agreed on the much needed rainfall! Will help with ongoing fire fighting efforts in some of those areas as well

GFS and EURO with sub-60 degree dewpoints even in west/central Texas has me underwhelmed for Friday. The low-level shear is good but that’s some pretty meager moisture for this time of year. I’ve been following this for days waiting for this aspect to improve but models have been very consistent. I find it hard to expect anything more than a low end threat exists at this time. Eventually the gulf will stop getting bombarded with crashing cold fronts but doesn’t seem like that will stop for the foreseeable future.

Problem is the front late this week plows south basically to the equator...will moisture recover quick enough for whatever next system may approach?

Gfs and euro are worlds apart with the timing of the wave ejection end of next week. Gfs says late Thursday, euro says Friday. Severe potential much greater on the Euro with better moisture and shear.

Low amplitude can work but I’d be worried about moisture return this early in the season if systems are spaced too closely.

Will be nice if we can actually get some decent ridging for an extended period in the east. The general pattern since November, with a few exceptions, doesn’t lend much confidence to that.

All I can say to that is wow...