Buffalo Bumble

Late for this but been meaning to jot down some post-event thoughts on the WNY lake effect storm last weekend. We spend so much time looking ahead sometimes I like to hit rewind...

* Models started showing a sizable event at least 5 days in advance. It held...so good to know that model dreams sometimes do come true. 
* The idea for several days leading to the event was for a predominant SW/WSW flow event off Erie. That changed to more of a WSW event the day or so before, causing widespread panic for the northtowns crew. 
* One thing on modeling that didn’t change was fairly deep low pressure over Lake Superior that either held it’s ground or moved slowly N/NE. This is a classic position for BUF and points north lake effect post arctic cold FROPA. It ultimately played out that way and BUF points north were “banded” for 8+ hours. 
*. Patience is key in lake effect events but it’s hard...Lots of bust posts on Saturday morning from the immediate BUF crew when the event was really just starting. 
* Strong winds limiting accumulations is real. As good as the event was the snow came in pulses, switching from blinding 3”+/hour to an inch or less per several times. This kept accumulations in check but did provide the “wow” factor when vis dropped to zero (as so nicely documented by BUF Weather. 
* 3-4”/ hour snow is a thing of beauty...duh. 
 

Memorable event for the BUF northtowns!
 

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

I think it's too late for me...wife won't make another big move to a whole new area...unless it's Florida or Virginia. lol

She's quickly making her way up at her job and is doing great. As much as I love snow, I want to encourage/support her in her professional endeavors. She certainly does for me.

So...I've got to find somewhere more local for a more consistent snow high. (Thought N. Onondaga County would be doable, but man...these past 2 winters have been rough.)

Volney is a great spot (in-laws lived in Fulton up to a couple years ago). But...having spent a lot of time over 20 winters in that area you have to temper snow expectations. Very much boom/bust. When it hits it hits in a big way. Best events in my life have been a few 4”+/hour long duration storms in Fulton (north side of town).  30-50” totals, no problem. But winds have to line up perfect on the WNW vector. And no help from elevation. So you’re still subject to some relative ratters there. Unlike a place like Springville that gets hit from multiple wind flows and gets a nice boost from elevation. 

41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Huge fluff bombs again here in Williamsville 

Snow begets snow 

Nice burst of moderate snow here this morning. Radar looks solid for a couple hours. 

Amazing videos Rich!!  You captured the worst, I mean best, of it perfectly. Well done!  Glad the northtowns produced a chase-worthy event. 

Just now, ayuud11 said:

Chase the eastern tail end of the band towards Medina/Albion area bro i guarantee you some 3-4"/hr rates towards that way.

That spot has been “in the yellow” for hours. Might crack the 20” mark in that area. 

Heavy snow here again 

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I just got the best video of all time 

On the edge of my seat in anticipation...

Couple pics from the neighborhood during some of the heavier snow this morning.

Flipping between light and heavy snow here for last 45 min. Getting tough to measure with wind but estimating 6” new since this morning. About 8” storm total. 

2 minutes ago, WNash said:

That’s near Smallwood, right? You and I basically live on the same heading relative to the lake, about 2 or 3 miles apart.

Yes, I’m about 400 yards from Smallwood elementary on corner of Burroughs and N Burbank. You’re right, same heading as you for lake effect. Been holding steady here at about 2” per. 

Well then...About 45 minutes ago radar showed heavy returns JUST to my south. So I did a little foot chase down Burroughs Dr to Main St (about 3/4 mile from my house to Main). Left house with a nice gentle 1”/hr snowfall. Rate nicely increased to about 2”/hour when I made it to Main St. Then it got real fun...Wind picked up and rate doubled. I would compare it to being caught in a torrential downpour. Just an absolute wall of white. I walked by a house with people in the garage and heard someone say “is that a person out there?”  Just arrived back home to about 3”/hour here. Sweetness. 

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Has increased here in Williamsville should be getting into those returns soon

Yeah, just on the north edge of the band here right now. Face west, look right, light sky. Face west, look left, dark sky!  Steady snow though. 

Walden Ave exit on the 90

31 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Getting smoked here!

 

Nice!  She looks quite healthy right now. 

3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Can anyone else see breaks in the clouds above? Still snowing but a weird look for sure

Yep!  Big patch of blue sky overhead with snow still falling. 

About 2” here overnight, fresh inch in last 30 minutes. Fantastic morning with giant flakes pouring down and barely any wind. 

5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Absolute blizzard conditions here in Williamsville...even if it doesn’t last long...damn...

Right!  Long fetch Lake Erie bands rock (even if they don’t like to last very long). 

15 minutes in on another wicked “pulse”. Heaviest snow of the season IMBY. Tough to see across the street stuff. Great flake size too. 

Pounding here now 

25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I would take the gfs next weekend and beyond 

Doesn't drop the PV on us as much this run, keeps it a little north..

Hopefully the Euro follows suit. Odd evolution on 12Z with a storm sitting in place over the northern Rockies for like 72 hours. But yeah, the coveted triple lake connection made an appearance next weekend on the last few GFS runs. 

Snow starting to pick up here as the northeast end of the lake is filling in. Wind really just started to crank too, maybe the “edge of band” wind effect that’s common. I’m guessing I’ll see cellular bursts for a while so don’t expect it to pile up too quickly. 

Looks good on Grand Island at the moment. Pretty dark returns there. Seems to be ripping on webcams, tough to tell for sure in the dark though. Hoping for a slowwwww crawl south so everyone gets a decent hit. 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah our long duration LES event is more intermittent now as several synoptic systems are on the table..Gfs wants to phase in the PV next weekend..So it may be hit or miss on the LES front..

Interesting model battle there for next weekend. Like you said, GFS drops the PV on us while Euro has it about 1,500 miles northwest over the Canadian archipelago while we mild up a bit.  Let’s see which way Euro goes at 12z. Such a huge difference at that lead time though is pretty remarkable. 

Snow is already firing in Michigan off the lake and looks quite robust. Good sign for whoever scores in WNY.