ers-wxman1
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Everything posted by ers-wxman1
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Primary is stubborn to fold this run, likely to have implications on the coastal.
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Primary is further north and slower to transfer this run of the NAM.
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Miller B storms are just plain complicated. No way around it. Anytime you are relying on a transfer of energy from one system to another aligned along a baroclinic zone you are asking for trouble at this latitude. The 500 trough is not all that impressive and there are a number of other factors involved to make this work. I think the model envelope is shrinking but it’s those finer details that still need to be worked out in the next 48 hours that count. These track and snowfall maps will change every run.
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DT first crack...
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Nam 12 looks pretty good through 84. Solid WAA with the primary running out of gas over KY. Looks like it would have been a healthy transfer to the coastal.
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GFS showing euro-ish trends makes one believe things are coming more in line with the EC/CMC scenario. GFS is struggling with its bias of overdoing the northern branch and underdoing the southern. Warm dry air just rockets in on this solution then cold conveyor just turns on for 12 hours of wrap around? Pretty extreme scenario at this latitude.
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Strong front end thump on the 12z icon but the primary is too strong and north which brings in warmer air and the dry slot. Coastal is too late. Waa thump is 3-5” for most.
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Improved
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Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow.
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But I personally lost 12” of digital snow are you going to come here and console me, wipe my tears, help me throw digital punches and sue the Europeans? Fight this out in banter? PBP of euro at 1 am ET. My next briefing is in 6 hours. Great having you on here bro.
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Let’s see how the Ukmet trends.
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Miller B’s are very tricky at this latitude regardless. March 2014 snowquester was a Miller B. The toughest part is getting the primary to transfer at the right time to the coastal. If it’s delayed it will mess up the whole process because warm air comes in and so does the dry slot if the primary remains dominant and tracks north of us...we downslope on the back side. Coastal gets going but the 500 is open and a mess. That’s the #1 concern. Fortunately it’s not March, but same process exists.
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Earlier tonight I watched Bernie Rayno, whom I personally respect. He went toward Euro and DT also. DT had a good explanation that the GFS overdoes the northern branch and under on the southern. It’s showing here. That high to the north is strong, must be a better CAD.
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At day 4/5 it’s been bad.
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It’s going to be warmer with SE flow. Fast changeover especially the cities given that scenario. Some of this would be overdone.
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Just posted this to an earlier comment. Looks so subtle but big difference.
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It all has to do with the primary low. Euro weakens it faster, it dies over KY and the coastal transfer is faster. Flow turns more NE which locks the cold air in, 500 low cuts off and the low phases on the Euro. GFS the low is stronger and tracks more north which pumps in warmer air, gets a dry slot going and delays the coastal and 500 closes much later. Looks subtle but huge difference!
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GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly.
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72 hours from onset
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72 hours from onset. The overall pattern should be locked in minus nuisance details.
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24 hours from now we’ll have better run to run consensus across the guidance on the overall pattern setup...within 72 hours of onset.
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Euro is a textbook pattern for a classic heavy snow event west of 95. Nails the track and strength of the primary to coastal transfer and capture.
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
ers-wxman1 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Euro is textbook. Classic heavy snow solution for the suburbs. This will all come down to the track and strength of the primary and transfer of the coastal. -
January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
ers-wxman1 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
This is a model discussion for day 3 to 7 weather threats. This type of message just clogs up the forum. -
January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
ers-wxman1 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hardly a win on the 12z GFS. The snowfall totals are strung out over an 18 hour period and with warmer air working in off the Atlantic. Ratios likely not 10:1, so 3-6” area wide is questionable. 500 energy is open as it comes across, phases too late and the Midwest low as mentioned is further north of where we’d like it. A lot of moving parts, still time for things to come together, but by Thursday I expect the overall pattern to be locked in with all guidance minus the smaller details.
