ers-wxman1

Commuter advisory for rush hour impact.

Squirrel and stray cat advisory

Commuter advisory

Steady light snow in Warrenton at the office. Coating.

The biggest run of our lives!

Here comes the 00z NAM tease

You’re on!

If I get 3 inches in Reston I’ll take 5 of you to Ruth’s Chris for steaks!

18z GFS will keep the toughest of weenies in the game until 00z.

Bust: P6SM FEW050 Boom: P6SM SCT030 BKN060

Elegance of words. Masterpiece of American literature

You guys are beating a dead horse. This is great for trying to keep a business alive, not for snow. Even if the NAM throws a snow swath over us it’s never going to reach the ground! It’s bone dry. Would take half the day to moisten the column let alone fringe bands. It’s a dead deal!

And how about the times it gives the solution you want 7 days out then verified! What do you make of the model then?

It’s not the model that’s important, it’s the pattern recognition. Models are just simulating possible solutions, taking into account a variety of features. Understanding what drives a 1-2 foot storm in our area is more important than models spitting out a HECS at day 7.

Synoptically, there is not a single feature that supports a Mid Atlantic event. Everything is in the wrong place. We are hanging on by a needle thread with the fantasy driven NAM. I’m not even sure we will see enough cloud cover to block the Sun.