ers-wxman1

24/17 here in Snowshoe, WV. First weekend of skiing.

We don’t have that pattern in place.

Strong southeasterly winds off the deck coming off a mild Atlantic will erode that airmass quickly.

The pattern is missing key features that would generate a solid winter storm not just for the MA but for the Northeast as well. How many arctic intrusions with wind chill headlines and sub zero air masses over the northern Plains and Great Lakes this season. None. Very abnormal to see this over an extended period like we have. Bass boats were being launched on the lakes in Minnesota on 12/27, on a lake where cars normally drive on with thick ice. Something is amiss and yes it would take a larger scale phenomenon to get it to shift. No mechanisms in place to both drive arctic air in and keep it. Pattern is not amplified like needed. No blocking, no ridging out over the western U.S. we get cool passages with modified air. Not going to get it done. El Niño is only one factor. That just guarantees more southern stream energy, drought going away with ample moisture but it does NOT necessarily mean more snow. No cold air to produce. PSU is correct in his assessment. Going to take a more persistent change or else it’s more of the same.

Guidance did this on the Wed 00Z run, closed off the 850 low tracking to our south and frozen went up dramatically.

Wrote about this yesterday. It is a mistake just to look at the model output, QPF etc. Analyze the scenario from the top down. 500/700/850. Are you seeing any features that align with known weather patterns that generate heavy snow across our area? Ridging out west, 850/700/500 energy is closed, deepening as it swings to our south? Strong high to the north? Blocking? Also with the CAD…what kind of air mass is being dammed? Nowhere in the northern tier do we see wind chill or extreme temperature headlines. These are flags. It’s been mild. The big difference last night on the 00z I saw was the 850 low became closed and stronger with the vort passage, while the high became stronger, and more dynamics, ridging hinted over the western U.S. that amplifies things enough to deepen the surface low in the right spot, however this isn’t slam dunk. It’s all marginal and not dealing with a textbook winter storm here, so any minor shift in these subtle features will significantly alter snowfall amounts. That is what is happening. It’s simply not the ideal pattern. It would be a heavy front end thump then hope for wrap around as it winds up offshore before subsidence kicks in. Many moving parts. Strong SW upper flow makes this fast moving system, rely on front end WAA. Thermals also marginal, no good source to fuel this. These types of systems are a nightmare to forecast, especially with regard to headlines and where to put them.

There has never been anything in place to support such a storm. Guidance in the long range is simply trending toward climatology. The features that were being modeled weren’t even in the U.S. It gets closer then reality settles in. There is not a single cold temperature or wind chill headline out anywhere in the Plains or New England. That is very telling of the airmass we are dealing with. Bass boats were going out on the lakes in MN late Dec where normally you would find cars driving out on the ice. Different patterns driving weather. It’s important to know the patterns, analogs, so you know the type of setup that is textbook to this area. If a model is dumping double digit snows here but doesn’t align to a pattern known to produce then you have a red flag right off the bat.

12” totals will be over the higher terrain for this event. CMC likely overdone, even into the far NW suburbs. Model doesn’t account for temps effectively. It could be 36F and snow with no accumulation efficiency, but the model still adds up the total snow in general ratio. Essential to analyze the pattern unfolding and projected vs the dump of snow in the more amplified solutions. What in this pattern would actually drive double digit accumulations? You’ll be hard pressed to find the features.

The warmer, less amplified solutions are likely trending toward the proper setup for this pattern. Not to say the area won’t see a slug of moisture, likely will, but BL won’t be supportive even in the immediate suburbs.

This is not the pattern setup you want for significant snowfall in the MA. 500mb pattern is progressive, lack of ridging over the west and weak high to the north retreats with airmass not overly cold. “ Cold airmass” in place will not be cold enough for most areas east of the mountains. Need upper energy to be deepening to our south, GFS coming more into reality now with the progressive weaker system.

All depends what you are interested in. Sagrada Familia if you go to Barcelona.

Digital snow wars have begun. Move em to banter.

San Sebastián is amazing. Stay near the beach.

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while.

It’s everything nowadays.