showmethesnow

Just hunting for positives here for the DC crew and here you go throwing cold water on them.

Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north.

Low isn't doing us any favors as it doesn't ramp up like the NAM 00Z. Seeing a 1003 mb vs. a 996 mb off OBX. But we are seeing continued weakening of high pressures to the north, especially earlier in the run, which is allowing an expansion northward of the precip field.

Sure does. DC is only a 25-50 mile shift out from somewhat decent measurable.

There were a couple of good things seen on this run. Besides the improvements to the west with the 500's and the slower progression which gave more time and room for more strengthening we also saw the confluence relaxing a little quicker. It was a good run and a step in the right direction at least for VA. But we are talking the NAM outside of its comfort zone so I would still probably defer to the globals.

Very good improvement at 500s and the surface for the potential in the VA area. By hour 57 we see the low just off of Hatteras @ 994 mb vs. the 12z which had the low @ 1003 mb and running OTS at a farther south latitude.

Actually seeing a decent response/look from the 500s to the west at 54 as to where we might keep the low tucked in a little closer to the coast as well as maybe a little bump north of the lows northward progress.

By hour 54 we have seen a slower progression of the low as well as a fairly healthy bump north of precip. eta: Putting central Va back into the game.

I knew what you meant. Was just being a smarta**. Of course later on I might go back and double check my thoughts but just going by memory I would probably go with the EPS for the mid and longer range. GFS may have been more right with the southern solution but that was more by luck then anything else as it was horrible with the 500s. EPS had been fairly steady during that time and will end up having a more accurate representation leading into the storm. If it weren't for that NS energy diving down into SE Canada we would all be celebrating the Euro at this time.

North Carolina?

Didn't think it was possible but the GEFS is even farther south with the snowfall means. Northern edge of the appreciable accumulations is now just north of the VA/NC line.

No help from the overnight EPS. Won't lie, I will keep tracking this to the bitter end hoping for a Hale Mary but at this point I have all but raised the white flag. Models have a hard time with NS energy and just a couple/few days ago when we were seeing our farther north solutions they weren't handling this one feature correctly. The culprit is below where we see a piece of energy rotating down through southeast Canada. What this is doing is reestablishing the confluence that had just begun relaxing from the piece of PV that is now pulling up through the 50/50 region. Take that feature out and and chances are good we have our snowstorm up into DC/Balt. What we are seeing is ridging into Greenland (bootleg -NAO) with a 50/50 at both 500s and the surface. The confluence is relaxing in time to allow a northward movement of the low in the SE. Ridging developing in front of the trough that is dropping in behind the southern low. Also are seeing ridging in the west in a prime spot for developing eastern lows. A very good and almost textbook look for scoring in the mid-Atlantic. But what we are seeing is that energy in SE Canada doing is putting a monkey wrench into the works. For one it kills the ridging in front of the trough in the southeast which in turn does not allow it a negative tilt which is more conducive for capturing/ influencing the southern low and pulling it northward. Two, it is effectively putting a wall back up over top the surface low which is blocking northward movement as it amplifies. Pretty much a double whammy. So what changes in the coming runs could we hope for to see a farther north solution short of getting rid of that NS energy? First we could hope for a quicker departure of the piece of pv that is now running through the 50/50 region. A quicker departure would tend to drag the energy rotating around it farther north as it swings through SE Canada which in turn pulls the confluence farther north as well. Second, we could hope for that NS energy to be slower as it swings down through SE Canada. This would allow the storm to gain some latitude during the relax before the wall comes down again. But let's face it, at this point we are just fighting for the miles to get DC into the northern fringes of possible measurable. The timing differences needed to get DC/Balt back into the game for a snowstorm are probably close to insurmountable as both the Euro and the GFS are pretty much locked in at this point. So seeing a 6 hr timing difference maybe, but a day+, that is a tall order. Now I admit, this is becoming a big disappointment for me because I have had high hopes for this time period for 10+ days now just to see it wrecked at pretty much short range. But I wouldn't let this discourage you whatsoever for this winter. This storm, even though it looks to be a fail, is further cementing in my mind of what I expect to see this winter. That we are potentially looking at a block buster season. What we are seeing is both a juiced active southern stream as well as an active northern stream and they are converging in the central/Midwest portions of the CONUS as evidenced by this coming storm as well as several other storms we have seen recently. Now like a home run hitter, this setup will have its share of strikeouts but on the flip side it will have its share of home runs. Here's hoping that we see this home run hitter on a tear this year and not in the midst of a strikeout slump.

BANTER!!!! 18Z @84 hrs is a close match to the 12Z, any differences at this point are pretty much noise. Precip might be a touch south.

I agree the bigger problem is the PV itself. But if we could get a little better timing and/or separation between the energy rotating around it it might give us enough relax at a crucial time to at least get DC into some half decent action. As far as up in my neck of the woods I have all but given up on it.

GEFS pretty much in lockstep with its previous run.

06Z was a pretty good match to the 00Z run. Pretty much the same results with a W NC jackpot.

A little more of a relax on the confluence over the NE on the 06Z GFS @ 60 hr. But that is more then likely nothing more then noise at this point.

The models have been all over the place with the energy rotating through eastern Canada so there is hope. But at some point you would think they would get that nailed down and I am thinking that time is getting near. A day maybe? Two on the outside?

Overnight EPS wasn't pretty. We are seeing energy rotating down reinforcing the confluence to our NE just as our storm is in the east. If that feature is a phantom then we are probably still somewhat in the game, otherwise...

Everybody's a hater these days. Guess that is what happens when the models take away their pretend snow.

Part of my evil plan to take over the world. I don't get too hung up on 1 cycle of runs or even a days worth but glancing over yesterday and the trends were not pretty I admit. About to look over the overnight runs to see if there are any positives but until/if we can get rid of or see a quicker release of that NE suppression we are probably SOL for those north of DC. Still think DC will luck into an inch or two at the least though. Have 4 days so let's let this play out another day or two before we call TOD.

What's this I hear about a drought? Meh. Get back to me when the pendulum swings and we get flooding rains. Would like the heads up so I can go out buy lumber for my Ark before they sell out.