showmethesnow

Where are you seeing their latest forecast? All I see is the one posted from 9:45 last night.

NAM twins are in and they continue the theme of what I have seen over the last 24+ hours on guidance and what I sort of expected to see. The tendency on guidance has been to amp (buckle) the flow a touch, away from the flat somewhat zonal look we were seeing on previous runs as the storm runs underneath us. So what does that mean? That means we would see the initial low take a more southern track (blue line) to our south initially as there is a better press at 500's behind it vs. the more zonal look (black line). But then you notice that we see blue track start hooking north as it hits the coast in what is typical of a Bench Mark track (track quite often seen with big east coast storms) vs the black track which is running more OTS. The reason for this is that with the slightly better buckling at 500's the low has more room to grow so it strengthens quicker and stronger vs the more zonal flow. This strengthening will have a tendency to pull the low pole-ward adding a more northerly component to the track. And this is what we have generally seen over the guidance the last 24 hours or so. This is a good thing as it allows our region to be under the influence of a stronger low longer vs. a weaker low that is running for the most part OTS. What is a shame though is that we don't have high pressure extending over top of us. Throw that into the mix and we more then likely have a MEC or even a KU from DC up into the NE. Now at this point most of our precip (rain/snow) is related to WAA (warm air aloft) as the low runs to our south and very little of it is related to a CCB (cold conveyor belt) transport of moisture from the low off the coast. With a quicker stronger low to our south you will see a better response with precip totals but you are also seeing a more aggressive push of a warm nose at mid-levels as well. And this can be seen with the latest NAMs. The question at that point is, are the increase in rates enough to balance out the stronger push of warm as they mix it out? In the NAMs case not so much as they do shift northward somewhat with the rain/snow line. Now one thing I will be curious to see. The NAMs are just now picking up on strengthening the low sooner as they see a more favorable 500 setup. And this is happening within 12 hours of game time. But after that initial quicker strengthening they then slow done that strengthening as to where we see roughly equivalent pressures when the low is off the coast compared to our flatter runs. I question if that will be the case here if in fact they are right with the stronger low to our south. I would tend to believe that we would see a stronger low off the coast then what the NAM's currently show (again, if the models are correct with the lows earlier solution). The implications could be that we actually see a somewhat organized and stronger CBB flow setup soon enough as to have a somewhat meaningful impact for our region. This would favor areas more so in the east/northeast portions of our region.

Just started looking myself. But here you go if you want to look for yourself, though it doesn't have the Euro. Will glance at the Euro in let you know in a minute or two. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Not the foot or so I thought we had a shot at just a couple of days ago. But I won't throw this away.

And yet Eskimo Joe will still complain and down play it.

$200 bucks and I can almost guarantee you won't see rain.

I'm with you. Any snow falling is a win in my book even if it doesn't lay. Nothing worse then 32-33 degrees and rain. eta: Actually I lied, 95+ degrees and 70+ humidity is worse.

Not really going to dive into it right this second but glancing at it I would say the improvements we are seeing on the snow maps are in relation to the better precip/rates we see. It is helping to knock down the warm nose we are seeing poking in between 750-850 mb. That said, though I really hate the +snow depth maps because they are pretty much POS's, I would say it probably is far closer to reality for the cities and S/E then those 10:1's.

GFS just came in with under .5 inches. Any further cuts and you have to start questioning if rates can overcome the surface temps to give us anything more meaningful then a sloppy inch for the cities.

Never saw this as a heavy precip event Setup just a few runs ago argued for a somewhat high precip event and I do believe the models were spitting out 1-1.5 inches. But with the progressively flatter flow we are losing that.

Just one left. Thinking about it I better run to the store and see if they have any left. Kind of sucks they are a seasonal beer.

Think you are in a rough spot no matter how you look at it, besides a possibly brief flip as the storm exits stage right. You would need the OBX exit solutions with a much more rapid intensification of the low then any model is currently projecting. Then you would have to hope that the low doesn't hug the coast. I guess that isn't impossible. But it is probably unlikely as we are within 36 hours of the event. But there is hope. $200 dollars for a room for the night as well as all the hot dogs you can eat. I will even splurge and spend the big bucks for the all beef ones. Can't ask for a better deal.

06Z GFS was a step back in the snowfall. Biggest issue here was it cut precip totals through the cities (DC/Balt) to under .5 inches. Farther south with the low across our south and exits the coast in a good spot (OBX) but it is slower to ramp up. Much better temp profile through the column with no indications of issues with a warm nose at mid-levels. Would be mostly or all snow through the cities. Throw a little quicker developing low as it exits the coast into the mix and I think those in the cities and N/W would be very satisfied.

Actually a somewhat significant difference between the 06z NAM twins on how they handle the low to our south and when it is off the coast. Which is somewhat surprising considering we are getting into such short lead times and about the only major difference between the two is on resolution. 3K is running the low 50-100 miles south of the 12k as it runs to our south and also is much slower on amping the low up. By the time it is off MD's shores we have a 1000 mb low on the 3K vs 996 mb with the 12k. This weaker low results in the low being 100 miles or so farther east as it is slower to make its turn northward. Winning combo here would be a blend of the two. Southern track through the south on the 3k with the quicker ramp up of the 12K as it is hitting the coast. One other thing to note is that the 3k is drier then the 12k. Looking at roughly an inch+ through the DC/Balt corridor vs. .75+". We will need these rates as going by the 3k soundings we will be fighting a warm nose in the mid levels (850-750mb) even into the NW burbs.

Might have seen a stray flake or two here. But then again that may have been my dandruff.

Been up most of the night myself. Our puppy (actually 6 years old but still our puppy) had surgery yesterday and did not take well to the Cone of Shame. Very uptight with it and I was afraid she would hurt herself. So stayed with her and she spent most of the night bugging me for sympathy. Needless to say if I got 2-3 hours of sleep I would be surprised. Have about a pot of coffee in me now in the last hour and it isn't really doing the trick.

Guessing they lowered them? No matter. Really don't follow them anyway. Still like my thoughts about what we see snowfall wise.

Kind of like what they have showing for the DC/Balt corridor and central MD as it pretty much mirrors my thoughts over the last couple of days. (2-4) up 95 from DC to Balt. (3-6) north and west burbs. (4-8) around the PA line. And as far as the discrepancies between the 50% and the high and low ends? I have to question if that may be because the 50% is generated by both human input and computer vs. the other two being generated solely by computer. Just a thought and could very well be wrong.

Balmy 45 here... in Vegas. Wishing everyone the best for what is looking to be a modest snow storm region wide

Has to be my favorite as well. Most on here are too young/not born yet to understand what they missed. Insane rates, wind, thunder snow. Had drifts that I haven't seen equaled since. Was a surprise storm as well where they were only calling for flurries the night before. Woke up to maybe 6 inches on the ground with white out conditions. Was a few days before my 15th B-Day and was by far the biggest snow I had ever experienced up to that point (the 70's were total crap). Added bonus was that it was on a Monday and they called schools for the whole week.

Slight dosent cut it Ya think?

So you are saying onward and upward and lets start tracking our Christmas Eve/Christmas storm? I'm down with that.

Think what gets my goat is that piece of energy that screws up the initial system also screws up the secondary low that develops off the coast. Gives us a strong positively tilted trough to the west of our second system that runs it OTS. If that energy to the NE were to maybe exit sooner we would possibly be looking at at least a neutral trough, if not possibly a neg, to the west of the that second low which would help tighten the low to the coast and bring it up somewhat.

Slight bump north of the precip on the 06Z GFS.