showmethesnow

That has to be considered as well though I think that will play a bigger role downstream through our region. Would be curious as to what the source region (SW, N Mexico) for the central US looks in regards to precip anomalies. They were running wet as well? If that is the case then yeah, I think that would cap any meaningful heat through the plains.

The weather actually has been ideal for seeding this spring so there probably are no worries about watering twice. Just mentioned that because I believe you said something about reseeding again later in the summer when you might have to actually deal with heat and dry. Most people put straw down which helps to mitigate the soil drying out which you probably are already doing. The two times I got burned I did have straw down and I was watering twice daily. But like you my second watering was in the evening. But what happened was the heat and dry killed the couple of day old grass in a matter of hours around noon into the early afternoon. Talk about a grown man crying.

Shift the cold anomalies east and put above to well above into the central us and you have my thoughts. Also think the deep se (Florida, Georgia, s Carolina, and possibly n Carolina) all see some bouts of somewhat significant heat.

Know many don't have the luxury of doing this but I have found for myself that instead of drowning the seed and young grass in the morning that watering twice daily, morning and early afternoon seems to work the best. Especially on those hot dry days where the surface can dry out quickly and kill the fragile grass before it has a chance to establish any meaningful root system. I found this out the hard way. A couple of times no less.

Back at our trailer in the mountains for 4 days and it looks as if the weather will once again cooperate. Spent 5 days up here 2 weeks ago and I don't think we have seen such a great stretch of weather in the 4 years we have been coming here. Besides 2 quick hits of rain we pretty much had all sun with temps in the mid 70s to 80. Temps at night were in the low to mid 60s which is great sleeping weather. It was a far cry from what we were used to where we were seeing rain 75+% of the time.

Still thinking below average summer temp wise. But starting to believe that late summer into fall we see an extended period of above to well above temps relative to average for that time of year. That would mean well below avg for most of the summer and we are seeing a good start in that regards. But as you said summer is just kicking off so there is plenty of time to see things change.

After fighting with my lawn for 15 years I have found my favorite grass seed to be the Penn State blend. Does well in both semi deep shade and full sun and seems tolerant of Heat/cold and dry/wet conditions. Also like the look of the carpet it lays. Father in law recommended it 4-5 years ago and haven't switched since.

Think Highrisk mentioned this as well? These are kind of my thoughts as well as far as the heat. Of course it also means higher humidity as well so that would offset the somewhat cooler temps. One thing that all this moisture might also mean is more fuel for Thunder storms/severe as well. With the trough setup in the east the higher moisture is another reason I think we see an active severe season deep into the summer.

Really haven't delved into tropical yet this year. Probably later this month into July is when my interest will start perking up. But I will say early indications are somewhat promising for a somewhat active season. Not so sure I am enamored with the pattern we see as far as our chances for our region though. Even when the pattern breaks down and goes zonal later in the summer during prime climo for canes. But it is very rare I am enthused with the pattern so that is nothing new. If we see something of substance it will more then likely occur because of good timing and not because of the mean overall pattern. I will say I do like the chances for deep SE (Georgia, Florida) coastal hits into the gulf states. Think the setup is a good one for them.

Not really sure what they showed last summer as about the only thing I somewhat followed was tropical. As far as following the models or not that is up to the individual. But I am not so sure I would be so quick to throw them out especially when they make sense and somewhat follow one's line of thinking. In this case they mirror my thoughts on what I expect to see this summer so I myself am giving them some weight.

Just looking over the climate models for the summer months (June-Aug) and they probably suggest avg to below avg temps for the summer. Below we see the CANSIPs which shows ridging into the central US with troughing down the US seaboard. This setup would suggest heat would be mostly confined to the south central US over into the deep SE. The troughing in the east would suggest cooler then avg temps for our region. And looking at the temp profiles reflects this. An aside here, but that setup would probably favor land-falling tropical systems through the gulf states into the deep SE coastal states. That said you can not exclude the possibility of something farther up the east coast if something gets timed well. This is not the latest run of the CFS but the one from May 31'st so I could do a 3 month avg. CFS is very similar with the broad overall wavelength at 500's. So what was said above stands here as well. But the one thing that I do question is the temp anomaly profile. I just don't buy it. Showing cold deep into the south central US runs counter to what the 500's show and the above anomalies running up the east coast just doesn't fit with the mean trough being located through that region. Looking at both Sept and Oct we see the eastern trough break down and we go into a zonal flow across the US. So if the models are correct our best chances for heat/prolonged heat probably reside in the late summer into early fall time period as the rest of the summer would probably be avg to below avg temps. One other thing of note is that the setup probably argues for a fairly active summer for Thunder Storms/Severe through our region.

GEFS long range would imply that it would be fairly active through our region (especially northern areas) for the first half of June. Shows a tendency for NE troughing. Couple that with bouts of Central US as well occasional SE US/Atlantic ridging and that puts our region in the cross hairs. If this were to verify we would probably see a continuation from May of the battle zone for storminess/T storms setting up through the region, though the MD/PA region would probably be favored at this time. Southern and coastal regions of VA down into the deep SE might want to keep an eye out for a stretch or two of decent heat though the temp anomalies don't show it at this time. Euro on the other hand is more aggressive with building ridging into the East later in the period (at least through 240 hr and looking at the setup would suggest a continuation of that theme beyond). The Euro is the warmer model for the entire region in the extended then the GEFS. Maybe even much more so then the temp anomalies now being spit out might suggest as I think they may be underdone. The Canadian favors the GEFS for the most part as it holds the ridging farther west and we do not see it build into the east as we see on the EPS. At this time I favor the GEFS. At least until I don't.

Thought I would be the first to get my snowfall predictions up for this summer. Call me a Nostradamus if you like but I do feel this will be a very tight competition between the contest participants. BWI: 0" DCA: 0" IAD: 0" RIC: 0" Tiebreaker HGR: 0"

BWI: 97 DCA: 99 IAD: 98 RIC: 101 Tiebreaker HGR: 96

Good luck with that. All I can say is if by chance we do see those numbers then I am moving the hell out of here.

Nowhere near the experience and knowledge of those on here when it comes to severe but this coming Friday into Saturday has my interest somewhat.

Looks as if the biggest culprit with the storm yesterday was that we saw less qpf and rates through central MD into Balt then expected inserted into an already marginal temp profile. Had a domino effect to the north as the warm nose was not getting mixed out as well as it continued north. So despite having better rates around the MD line they were combating warmer then expected mid-levels.

Measured 4.5" at 3:00 am here in Hanover just across the MD line. If I would have snow boarded was probably talking nearer to 6 all things considered. Went to bed at 7:30 so didn't witness it for fact but looking through the layers of the snow fall I see no indications we ever turned over to sleet or rain. So it looks to be an all snow event. Except for a brief period of time in the late afternoon where the snow got somewhat icey for the most part we were probably talking around 10:1 ratio snow and probably closer to 12:1 by the time I went to bed. But the ratios don't mean a thing when a light to somewhat moderate snow is falling into 33-34 degree temps and the ground is being heated by the deadly March sun. Temps did finally hit freezing at sundown and then that was when decent accumulations started occurring. So final call here of 4.5".

12K is coming in wetter and farther north with the max strip of precip by hour 12.

Ratios once you get out into the farther NW subs will probably be 10:1 possibly 12:1 around the favored locals around the PA line.

Just don't get arrested for indecent exposure. Or do. Would make for a great conversational piece on these boards for a long time to come.

Keep us posted for when they hoist the flood warnings for you.

I noticed that. Snow maps are pretty useless on the southern edge as much of that was actually showing sleet. And that was fluctuating from run to run depending on precip being shown. So though it looked as if we were maybe getting a shift southward of the snowfall in fact that was nothing more then it just showing an increase of qpf totals. If you actually looked at the soundings you could see there has been a shift in the temp profile northward run over run, more so to the east then the west. Right now the battle ground in my mind between mostly conversational snow and/or sleet and shovelable snow is probably just north of DC running east through Balt. Now how that adjusts will probably be determined by what amount of heating we do in fact see on the ground as well as what dews are looking like when the precip does move in. If we do see a spike in temps and/or dews then we can probably shift that battleground northward as we will see deeper low level warmth that needs to initially be overcome. That lends less time where the temp profile will support snow before the warm nose pops in over top. Conversely less heating/lower dews and you can shift the battle ground south. At this time I am liking the potential for 10-15 miles N/W of the cities especially the favored locations around the PA line. Seeing a general increase on projected qpf and tend to believe we will continue to see that increase. Thinking at this time there is a decent shot we see some 10"+ reports somewhere up in that favored local as I would not be surprised if we see some 10-1 to 12-1 ratios as we see some good lift through the DGZ at times in that region. The only limiting factor will be ground temps in that case. Keep the temps around freezing for the majority of the event and they may be golden.

Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass for many of us if that were to verify. The problem is, is it is more aggressive with warming the surface and raising the dew points then other guidance. This in turn is creating a much deeper warm layer at the surface that is much more difficult to over come. You can see this if you compare the 3K NAM soundings. Guess it could be right but I highly doubt it, I just don't see that sort of response occurring with the flow it has on the surface. Don't follow the HRRR at all so I don't know what issues it does have. But taking a stab at it maybe it is overplaying IR in heating the ground? Underplaying the cloud cover and its effects on limiting the IR? I guess what I am saying is, is the HRRR the DEB of the model world and telling us we have no chances because of the infamous March sun angle?

Not too bad, sort of mirrors my thoughts though I would tweak it a little. Probably go with a little more of a SW to NE axis of snow fall. So move the western snowfall south a touch and the eastern northward a touch. Also think there will be a tighter gradient of the snowfall north of the 2-4 zone. So shift the 4-8 southward into most of Carroll and into northern Balt county. Think just north of that we will see 6-10 around the PA line. eta: Also wouldn't be surprised if NE MD does a little better then projected if the low is a little stronger off the coast.