showmethesnow

I'm cashing in my Mulligan Card. Here are my new numbers. BWI 100 DCA 99 IAD 100 RIC 100

Just saw an article yesterday that said the seaweed was everywhere down your way. Enjoy your swim.

I am all pins and needles in anticipation.

It's because you are a bitter man.

Just starting to see pumpkins now? Did you plant late or is this where your handy tip comes into play?

Lived through the 70's in Harford county and then Owings Mills. I didn't realize then how bad it was because I had no previous experience to compare it to so I thought it was the norm. The blizzard of 79 was a wakeup call to say the least.

Used to follow him religiously years ago (1996 through early 2000's). Now I only occasionally glance at JB's articles when I have weatherbell during the winter. If you can get past his hype and his tendency to stick with his forecast until they are dead and buried then he is well worth reading. He is very knowledgeable and I learned quite a bit from him as a newbie especially when it comes to winter time weather.

Meh.... Who cares. ***Observations of a disgruntled contestant that no longer has any skin in the game.*** eta: Who would have guessed a Hurricane (Barry) would screw me over by pumping up the heights in the east.

Really don't know whether a +NAO normally correlates to cooler weather or not during the summer. Will take your word for it. But I am not even sure we do see a +NAO, looks neutralish maybe very weak positive at the end of the extended looking at the maps. Brings up the question, what is typical for a neutral state? But besides that I generally focus on long wave patterns and indice values are of secondary concern. Pulled these out of my other post in the tropical thread. As you can see below we are dealing with a strong -NAO through hour 120 which is backing the flow inducing a deep trough in the eastern US and cooler temps that come along with it. Now this is the last 5 days of the extended. We now have a neutral to maybe a weak positive NAO from just eyeballing it. There is no longer backing of the flow so we are seeing the flow flatten and withdraw to the north which is allowing higher heights and ridging to build in from the south along with the heat that should come with it. Right now the heat anomalies at the end of the extended are minor but the look at the end of the GEFS is suggestive of building heat. I go into a little more detail in the tropical thread if you care to read it.

Looking over things I think heading into the end of the month month may get a little interesting. It will all be dependent on the -NAO breaking down in the coming week or two. See that and I think we could be looking at an extended heat wave (compared to seasonal norms) as well needing to keep an eye on tropical (post in the Hurricane thread detailing my thoughts).

Looked at the temp anoms as well. Besides the temps jiving with the long wave pattern through the CONUS it also matched well with the higher heights in the upper latitudes which are scorching.

Was there mention of what the issues were? Curious as to whether it was in relation to the height anomalies, which seemed crazy, or whether it was in relation to the long wave pattern which actually looked pretty good. Or actually both for that matter.

Know they are rough but I thought Nina's were more like 1 out of 5/1 out of 6 that reached around avg to above avg snowfall around the dc/Baltimore corridor? Majority of them being of the weak nina state. Our last nina a couple of years ago I think most attained around avg snowfall with some exceptions of course. And if we had had a semblance of a negative Nao it would have been a somewhat notable winter as the coastal scrappers would have been adjusted westward. Don't get me wrong though, I would much rather see a neutral to a nino enso every winter.

How quickly we forget when the seasonals nailed the la nina pattern a couple years back. My basic philosophy anymore is if the seasonals are predicting a crap winter then odds are strongly in their favor. A good winter then odds are strongly against.

Damn, walking out the door now for our trip and just took a quick glance at this. CANSIPs is on steroids with the higher heights/blocking in the upper latitudes for a very long duration. We see this verify and I would put good money on our having a very nice winter. Not only that but it would be wall to wall Nov-March. Hell, if not even longer for the favored/colder/elevated locations. But what do they say about the boy... errr.. the CANSIP's that cried wolf?

@WxWatcher007 Nah, wasn't bit. Nor the dogs but they have their rabies shots anyway. Probably not so strange though. Have quite a few bats here especially that time of morning before it gets light out. And with the lights on inside I wonder it they were attracting bugs and in turn the bat followed the bugs inside.

Forgot to mention it earlier in the day but my dogs and myself had an interesting morning. At 4:30 this morning I had the dogs outside to potty and I left the patio door open while doing this. Brought the dogs back in and sat down only to look up as a bat dive bombed me. Needless to say I spent 5-10 minutes with a broom trying to steer this bat back out the door all the while the dogs were racing back and forth through the house trying to catch it. Like I said, interesting morning.

Haven't even put any thought to this coming winter yet. ENSO forecasts are so fickle through the spring/summer it isn't even worth the trouble. Come Sept is when I will start gearing up.

And you still won't catch me.

Spent to much time doing a post in the Hurricane thread so I don't have time to do up a post at this time. But since I have started this thread the last couple of months I figured I might as well now. Will try to get something up tomorrow morning before we leave on a weekend trip. Until then here is something to keep you entertained. (Figured those that live in our local deserts would enjoy this )

Yeah, somewhat quick hitter here. Not much wind and a little thunder. Probably picked up a half inch or so.

Damn, knew I forgot to do something. Sorry about that. Don't worry though I will be shipping my multitude of mosquitoes down to you post haste.

Not sure I would want to be living in the house if a strong storm surge was coming in at high tide. Would give a new definition to the term boat house. Areas gorgeous. Would love to have a home on the water but the homes are a little pricey. Wife took tons of pics some of the better ones of which I might try to throw up a little later. We are seriously considering moving up here in 2 1/2 years. Probably look a couple of hours inland for a place. If we do I will be sure to post pics of all the snow for you all.

Mentioned a couple of weeks ago while on vacation in Maine that they experienced 9-11 foot tides. Here's some pics. Below we have the cottage we stayed in. A house beside our cottage

Wouldn't be the same without him. Of course his, 'Hurricane this and Hurricane that' seems a bit obsessive. Don't understand why he can't obsess/meltdown over snow like the rest of us.