showmethesnow

Yeah, I caught on to the gallows humor. Now I am not saying I don't believe the MJO depiction and the PAC look. But I am also not necessarily saying I believe them. Just saying I don't know and am in wait and see mode. Some things I am seeing are leading me to believe that we could possibly see that troughing setting up farther east more towards the plains. If that is the case we potentially see the SE ridging morph more into a WAR look which would be more favorable for our cause.

Just a week or so ago the MJO had it exiting out of COD into 4 and transversing up through the warm phases through Christmas. Looking above we see that never occurred with it exiting into 6 and moving into the cold phases. So I would probably take what it is showing with a grain of salt. We have to remember that the same models that generate our pretty little maps that we follow and complain about never being right also generate our MJO forecast.

Not quite as bad. Interestingly enough, or maybe not so much considering the time of year, the 850 line presides for the most part in southern PA throughout the ridging. So it isn't such an insurmountable mountain to climb to get us on the favorable side of the boundary. eta: Of course any system amplifying will cut to our west with that look. We would be dependent on weak systems.

This is what we are seeing on the surface at the above time frame. The low to key on and with the most potential is sitting down around the Florida Panhandle, not so much the one in WV. The above trough and the surface pressure anomalies below would suggest that this would travel up towards at least OBX if not farther north. But we are talking an op at 10 days so it isn't really worth much.

Maybe, maybe not. Seeing a quick turning of the trough axis which would favor this coming up the coast to a point.

GEFS actually showed some promise. We are now seeing separation with the neg anomalies. Note the greater neg anomalies through the 50/50 region and those dropping down into the Plains. Also now seeing the slightest hints of ridging between these two features (red circle). One thing we don't want to see in this setup is NS energy running in between these two features (yellow arrow) through where the ridging would setup.

But SE ridging would be in response to troughing into the SW. We are not currently seeing that. At worst we see the GEFS a little heavy handed with the trough favoring through the Plains. And as far as a -PNA we actually have a neutralish to a slight positive leading into the day 9/10 period. Now could we see the models flip as far as what we are seeing in the West? Sure. But given the progression I am seeing within the NS, carving out the trough farther and farther East, I strongly doubt it. This is a pretty good look setting up for us at this time (eta: when you consider the response we would see if a 50/50 is inserted into this look of which the models are starting to key on, especially the EPS) and it has been improving run over run to boot. I have a sneaky suspicion that we are going to start seeing the models hitting fairly hard on the potential if this look continues. But that said it takes more then a favorable wavelength pattern to score. Much will be dependent on the timing with trailing energy after the initial NS push through the region as well as if we see the NS drop in prematurely and wreck the setup by suppressing the trailing energy.

Saw your to my post. I take it you disagree with me? I am just not sure how you see a cutter with any amplifying system with the look all 3 models are throwing at us at this time on our possible day 9/10 storm.

Really not feeling a strong west based -NAO at this time as the models seem pretty insistent on placing the PV in that general local. But it is still workable. Give us some form of central/eastern based -NAO to help shove that pv farther S/SE then currently depicted and we will see the NS suppressed farther south pushing the boundary along with it. The potential is there for a gradient pattern setting up and all we need is to be on the winning side.

That's one way. Drop the PV a little farther to the south/southeast is another. Also suggestions of cooperation in the N Atlantic as well. Really wouldn't take much in the way of tweaking with any or all these features to put our region into play as it shifts the boundary a little farther south. Those in the SE (central/southern VA and south) though are more then likely SOL because we are more then likely going to see that SE ridging rearing its ugly head for them.

Think I would disagree with this. 500's being depicted at this time would suggest any amplification of a low would occur in the East vs. OV. Bigger fear in my mind would possibly be suppression.

Thought for the last couple of days that the period, what is roughly now centered on day 9/10, had some promise on the ensembles. From what I am seeing the models are starting to pick up steam on that idea. The EPS, GEFS, and the GEPS all vary somewhat on the general setup leading into this window (in particular the initial NS drop, placement and timing) but they all agree on two key features that open up this window. And that is rotating a low, induced from the initial NS push into the east, through the 50/50 region around day 8 as well as trailing NS and Pac stream energy. Now all 3 models vary somewhat on the evolution but they all show potential none the less. Now at this point the smoothing we see at the somewhat longer ranges on the ensembles is somewhat muting the look here but the fact that we are now seeing the ops with their finer detail picking up on a storm is very promising. Thought I would throw up one map from the EPS that showed what I thought was the most promise though I am not taking away from the other two models that showed promise in slightly different ways. Now what we have is the vort map at 500's here. Notice that we are seeing strong returns in both the 50/50 region as well as to our SW. Now this is where the smoothing/conflicting signals comes into play as we are also seeing somewhat strong returns just off the coast (blue circle). This is some of the ensemble members seeing a storm (probably some form of a Miller B from NS energy riding on the coattails of the initial NS energy and blowing that up). Now this suggests that the EPS is seeing two camps here. But take the Miller B camp out of the equation and instead of the smooth height lines we see running through the east and off the coast what we in fact would have is an amplification of the pattern with ridging developing between the 50/50 energy and the energy to our SW. We would also probably see a deeper drop of the trough associated with that SW energy. Needless to say that look would be a very promising one for the mid-Atlantic. Now seeing as some on here want predictions (ahem.... @leesburg 04 ) I will go out on a limb here, at least as far as one can go on a day 9/10 forecast. If we see the models continue with the idea of a 50/50 rotating through on the lead up as well as PAC/NS energy lagging behind I strongly believe we will see a storm here in the east. Now whether it is a Miller B earlier in the period or a southern/coastal low later is still up for debate. BUT..... if we can keep NS energy from running interference between the 50/50 and the energy running behind a day or two later there is potential here for a fairly significant storm for our region and up to our NE as a low to our SW has the potential to go Coastal. ***Just a quick aside. I know some on here are panicking when they are seeing looks like this at the end of the extended. Maybe hold off on that for a few days because I don't think it is as dire as one may think. Though at this time they may favor 40N they are by no means what I would consider a shutout pattern for us especially considering the time of the year. I would also like to add that it wouldn't take much in the way of adjustments with some features to actually turn this into a somewhat favorable look for us. Will try to post something later today or tomorrow explaining what I am talking about.

Haven't looked hard into it, would rather play my slots , bbut I like the improvements we have seen at 500s compared to the 12z at the end of the extended. Eta: as far as the pac, PV positioning around Green land degraded some what though.

Know this is banter but what the hey. Merry Christmas to you as well. I am at the rocky gap casino in western md and it is freaking great. Slots have been paying out great. Casino is clean, hotel is very nice and the food is good. Already decided I will make this my destination if we can get a good weekend snowstorm this winter.

Not hating the look the gefs is now throwing at us in the extended. Definitely a workable pattern as long as we stay on the right side of the boundary that will set up with that ridging in the se.

Despite the 00z gefs clocking in with probably a neutral epo that is a cold look in the extended. Neg temp anomalies it is currently depicting are probably even understated.

Heading out for the week to hit up family and a couple of Casinos so I won't be following as much as i normally would. But when we get back Sunday I have a very strong suspicion that what we currently see projected for the 10-15/16 day period will bear little resemblance to what we actually see next Sunday. Especially in regards to the PAC. Currently we are seeing a flat PAC flow into the West and I just don't buy it. Think we are going to see amplification with the long wave pattern through that region and it will just be a matter of where the troughing and ridging sets up and that will be determined by what pv presence we see around Alaska and its placement. By Sunday I strongly believe we will be looking at either a very sweet look for the PAC if we see the pv feature in that region rotate out around the Aleutians. Or conversely we could be looking at an absolute dumpster fire if that feature sets up shop on top of Alaska and we see a subsequent western trough extend down into the perpetual weakness we have seen in the SW these last few years. I see arguments for either case so which plays out is a coin flip in my mind. As far as the NAO? Who the hell knows. That will pretty much depend on where we see the major pv set up shop when it shifts eastward. Right now both models place it in one of the worst spots possible. They could be right but then again they are just as likely to be wrong and it wouldn't take much of shift to drastically improve the look.. So I guess what I am saying is, take what we are currently seeing on the models with a grain of salt because more then likely this is not what we see in a weeks time and the differences between a sweet look and a crap look are just a matter of some minor adjustments/placements of a couple of features.

Never said it would. Just trying to find something positive to say about some crappy overnight runs.

Just glanced at the latest EPS. Pretty rough looking in the higher latitudes but we did see some slight improvements here and there from the 12z. That said the look in the extended is workable given the time of the year but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for snow.

Waiting on the EPS to finish running to see what it has to say, but yeah the GEFS was pretty rough looking. Starting to hit hard on having a pv influence in/around Alaska and the latest run is following the EPS idea from yesterdays 00z run of planting that squarely into Alaska where we do not want to see it. Good thing here is that it doesn't take much of a shift with that feature (westward) to get a good look. As far as the NAO it won't win many friends. PV planted squarely in the western NAO domain and its influence spreading across Greenland down into N Europe. The run was pretty much the 2 worst case scenarios from my post yesterday. Won't say recent trends aren't somewhat concerning but I will reserve judgement for a few more days. Wouldn't take much to turn this look into a pretty good look and it probably all keys on how it handles the main piece of pv as it rotates eastward towards Greenland. See a farther southward drop and I think we see a good response in both the PAC and the NAO domains. As it is the current look being thrown up isn't what i would call a high probability look for our snow chances, far from it actually, but it is one that can be workable considering the time of the year.

Where the pv is currently depicted in the extended on both models it will be hard to maintain any sort of -epo/-nao regime for long, if at all. How it is evolving on the models at this time our hope is probably that both models are under playing the southward drop of that feature. See the models start placing that closer to Hudson Bay and I think chances are pretty good we see the upper latitude blocking showing up in both domains with even an outside shot of seeing a possible attempt at bridging between them.

The possible favorable changes to the pattern concerning the PAC are initiated Day 8-10 (Roughly day 8 GEFS, Day 10 EPS) as we start to see the PV make its move eastward towards Greenland. The models have shown for awhile that the pv's influence in the N PAC around Alaska would be substantially reduced as we would see everything mostly shifted eastward. But what I have suspected for while now (because of the ambiguous looks the models have been throwing out in this region) is that we would still see a fairly significant pv presence in this area even after we saw the shift of the main PV eastward. That said I believe the models may now be starting to pick up on this. If we look at the EPS below note that we are now starting to see strong negative anomalies and weak troughing extending westward through Alaska. This implies to me that the EPS is now possibly moving towards at lest pv associated troughing through that region, if not a piece of pv actually residing in that region. Now the current look is still workable despite the flat flow we are seeing coming off the PAC given the time of year. The problem here is that is probably not the look we get if we do in fact see troughing/piece of pv located close to or through Alaska. Chances are good that we would actually see is a repeat of the troughing extending down the west coast as we are now currently seeing and will see over the coming days. Needless to say this is the last thing we want to see for our snow chances Now the GEFS is also picking up on the idea of a stronger pv presence/influence around Alaska as well. But note we are seeing a difference where the stronger anomalies and troughing are compared to the EPS. These features are running north of Alaska and hooking down into the Aleutians. This is a much more favorable location for this feature and one I want to see. As a result of this we are now seeing the ability for height builds/ridging to extend up the west coast into Alaska. This would go a long way in improving our snow chances. Pretty amazing when you think about it, what just the small shifting of one feature could mean in regards to our snow chances. Now the PAC is just one part of the equation when it comes to our snow chances. Let's see what is occurring in the N Atlantic as the pv shifts. Interestingly enough, the EPS has a better solution then the GEFS. Note that the stronger neg height anomalies/troughing are situated mostly north of Greenland. This positioning is allowing the ability for stronger height builds northward into Greenland. Considering that we typically see smoothing at this range on the ensembles we would probably see a greater amplification of the troughing and ridging as it neared in time considering what is being presented at this time. Which would be a good look for us as it would place blocking in the central and western portions of the NAO domain. But if we look at the GEFS the neg anomalies and troughing run directly through Greenland (strong +NAO). This is effectively squashing the flow and not allowing the greater heights to build northward as we see on the EPS. And given the look I don't think we could count on seeing an improvement with the heights/ridging even if we consider smoothing. Again we are seeing just a minor shift of a feature that can have a fairly significant impact. Now if we could see a combination of what the GEFS is suggesting in the PAC as well what the EPS is suggesting in the N Atlantic I believe we would end up with a very good look through the CONUS as far as our snow chances. But we are still 8-10 days away from when all this get jump started by the pv's eastward migration so much can/will still change.

BWI: 11/16 DCA: 11/26 IAD: 11/16 RIC: 11/26 Tiebreaker: 8”

I hear rock/gravel lawns are easy to maintain.

Just starting to see pumpkins now? Did you plant late or is this where your handy tip comes into play?