showmethesnow

Good one. Nah, We're due index.

Love the look the CANSIPs throws at us Nov-March. We get that and our winter would be rocking open to close. Can't recall ever seeing such a large expansive red ball of higher heights in the upper latitudes not to mention the length that it holds them. Sadly, I am tossing this run though. Saw a very dramatic flip from the previous runs and have to question whether the heat and sea pack melt in the arctic regions may have had some influence/skewed the run. That said, we see something similar come the Sept 1 run... By the way, you forgot the biggest index of them all. WDI.

You wouldn't have survived tracking pre-2000 when models quite often couldn't be trusted at 3 days let alone 7+. The advancements we have seen since have been extraordinary. By the way, I am sure the programmers of these models don't sleep at night knowing you don't trust their product.

Not sure we can go by initialization times. Initialization is not so much about when the model was run but more so about the time the met obs and other pertinent data were collected. So even if it was rerun I would think they would go with the time of data collection and not the run time. And if you look at the CANSIP's Dec 500's from the tweet it is showing 8/1/2019. So either he misposted or the updated one will show the same initialization.

?? Just curious how you think it would be obvious?

Just got back from camping and went to pick the dogs up from the kennel. Just 3-4 miles north of my home got hammered with winds yesterday evening. Big limbs down everywhere and the one country road I took I was lucky to get through as the were multiple huge limbs down across the road where I had to drive on the shoulder to get around.

Great December look but I would be curious what the rest of the months show (Nov-March). Not sure the CANSIPS has been updated on Tropical Tidbits though the above matches what TT is now showing.

Just popped open a Sweet Baby Java from the Duclaw brewing company. An espresso bean infused chocolate peanut butter porter. Take out the peanut butter and this would a winning beer in my book. The pb just doesn't fit in.

Had a ton of rain here but the main event was a couple of miles north where the core of the storm went through. Here at the trailer we stayed on the northern edge of the inflow/updraft so there was minimal wind to speak of. But just north (mount holly) they got hammered. Trees down everywhere, streets closed, even had a couple of staging areas for the electric company one of which had 20+ trucks sitting there as we drove by. Storm with the wind and non stop lighting were the topic of conversation between the clerks and customers in the beer store I stopped at. Kind of glad the wind missed us considering our trailer is in the forest. Last thing we need is a tree coming down on our heads.

Euro has a pretty potent vort max that runs up from the south. Stays over land, though it does run the coast down around Georgia and south carolina. Get that over the water at least down there and we might have a little something especially for the coastal areas of our region. Gfs has some potent energy as well but it is more strung out and disorganized. Gfs also has a follow up vort max after the first. Not overly excited at this point but at least it is something to follow.

And now it looks as if we are going to get hit again. Everything was slacking off and now it is picking up again. Looked at radar and we had another cell pop up on the tail end of the first.

Trailer so we should be good. Rain moved in about 10 minutes ago and its been pouring since. Nonstop lightning and the power shut off about 5 minutes ago. Not much wind to speak of though. And as I am typing this the rain is increasing in intensity. Probably one of the better storms I have seen this summer. Eta: looking at radar and the core of the storm missed us 3-4 miles to the north. Can only imagine what kind of rain they had considering what we are seeing.

Looks like we are about ready to get a good storm up here at the campground just south of Carlisle. Hearing constant thunder just off in the distance.

Not really sure I buy the long range cool down either. Felt a week ago that that period of time would feature some fairly impressive heat relative to norms and I still am leaning that way. Guess we will see.

It just started raining. So quite obviously I must have just pulled up to our campsite.

The 2000 storm was a fun one. Remember hearing how we wouldn't see another storm sneak up on us like the 79 one due to advances with the modeling and yet... Was watching that storm on the radar throughout the evening thinking that it was coming up the coast and yet the Mets were insisting that it would turn and head OTS. Finally on the 11pm news they caved but even then I think they were still talking a glancing blow. As they say, the rest is history.

Thought I would revisit my post from the 7th to see how well the GEFS is handling the extended so far. Below is the 5 day mean for the end of the extended from the 7th. Now here is the latest run for that same period of time 8 days later. Not to shabby. Still shows the breakdown of the strong -NAO, withdrawing and flattening of the flow through the CONUS, and the height builds from the Atlantic through the south and into the SW. The PAC isn't too bad either though it does have the Pacific NW troughing and the Alaskan ridging/higher heights both shifted somewhat west. If you notice the weakness (circled in gulf) that split the higher heights through the south that we do not see on the previous map. That may be indicative that the GEFS sees the possibility of tropical through that region and in fact we do see systems popping up here and there on the op runs. Now with this shift of pattern (IMO all the result of the breaking down of the strong -NAO) we are seeing temps begin building once again through the region after a short cool down to normal to below normal temps before hand. But unlike my thoughts previously of this possibly being a long duration event with the heat ever increasing the GEFS has other plans. And if you guessed it might do with the NAO you would probably be right. We once again are seeing height builds and ridging moving into Greenland (-NAO). Thus we are seeing temps cooling down as the SE Atlantic riidging/higher heights are being knocked down once again as the mid-latitude flow shifts south in response to the blocking.

129 days until Met Winter. Less then 100 for realistic chances for snow for those not Altitude and Latitude challenged.* *This public message is brought to you by a disgruntled and bored weather nerd who is sick of the heat and wants to know where all the damn Hurricanes are that wxwatcher007 promised us.

Have a sneaky suspicion that the 78 storm was one that I was kind of pissed off at because others not too far away were getting double if not triple my totals. Might explain why I don't remember it because I have blocked it out of my memory. I missed out on the 83 storm up here. Was down at Georgia Tech for that one. Wasn't a total wash though as they did see a couple inches and had a good time playing sandlot football in their stadium in the snow. eta: Speaking of storms that I missed out on. The Storm of the Century in 93 was one. Lived in California at the time and remember watching the weather channel nonstop for almost a week following it. Seriously considered flying back the day before when it was looking like a sure thing. I cringe to this day when people start discussing it on these boards.

Pulled out my Kocin book to look at this storm to see if it brought back any memories. Nah, nothing. Did notice on their snowfall map that there were some notable differences in snowfall (heavy to substantially lighter) just in short distances down around the bay and up through Balt and Carroll counties. One report over in Carroll has 7 inches and another just over to Mappyland shows 17". Have a feeling we may both have been on the losing side on the battle between the heavier and lighter snows. Had another storm that year in January of that year that may have actually dumped more snow on us then this one.

Had 3 or 4 foggy mornings when we were up in Maine for the week. Guess at least Maine will have a stellar winter.

Can picture you as a D & D guy... but Pokemon?

At this moment I am enjoying my severe....... Showers.

And here I thought you were going to Mehhhh... it. Don't remember that one at all. Looking at the snowfall maps it looks as if Owings Mills got maybe 8-10 inches which was probably somewhat exciting at the time but it wasn't near the slap in the face that 79 was. Funny what you remember though. Remember one year (sometime in the mid 70's) mother took me out to visit one of her friends in Randalstown. Had a snow squall roll through for maybe a half hour or so that dropped snowflakes easily the size of golf balls and laid down 4-5 inches of extremely fluffy snow. For years afterward when they mentioned the chance of squalls I would get excited. Took me a while to realize that what I had experienced was actually pretty rare down in the low lands. Did I forget to mention that it was an early B-Day present?

What was so neat about PD1? I know you probably jest but just about everything. My favorite all time storm with only the two storms in 09/10 dumping close to 4 feet of snow in such a short period of time coming close (and that is mostly noteworthy just for the sheer amount of snow that was dumped). Lived in Owings Mills at the time and the last forecast I heard (probably Bob Turk at 5pm) had us getting Flurries to maybe an inch for our area at best. Woke up to total whiteout conditions, winds howling and probably 6+ inches or so of snow on the ground. Have never seen such rates (upwards of 5" an hour per articles), sustained to boot, ever since. Probably have seen higher gusts in a winter storm at some point but for sustainability of high winds I don't think any other storm I have experienced comes close. Drifting was the best I have ever experienced. In fact we had a steep hill in the neighborhood that we were jumping off of into a drift that was probably 10+ feet. The frequency of lightning during a time far surpassed anything I have ever experienced in a snow storm. 2 feet of snow became my benchmark afterwards as we just missed it by an inch or two. And the fact that schools were closed for the whole week was a novel experience. Also consider that this was my first experience with a significant winter storm after living my childhood through the snow drought we saw during the 70's. So for overall personal experience nothing comes close in my book. eta: After reading FDR's article I realized I forgot to mention the cold. Probably the coldest storm I have ever experienced and combined with the winds it made for a somewhat painful experience when walking out in it.