showmethesnow

I don't get it either. Nothing in the extreme whatsoever as far as precip and it's nothing unusual to get heat into September.

Anyone else having problems with the twitter coming up on the posts? Starts to throw it up for me but then stops and just leaves me the users comment. Been having problems with it for a week or so now.

Using that criteria for previous seasons you could probably redefine 1/2 to 2/3 of our good/great seasons as bad ones.

Is this your equivalent of training camp/preseason games in getting ready for this coming winter?

You all do what is convenient for the majority if you do have a get together. Of course if I can't make it I expect some of the good brew you all come across sent to my house with 1 day shipping.

Could have sworn you mumbled something about how snow sucks here in the mid-Atlantic and you you were getting the hell out of Dodge to somewhere where snow actually falls. My bad though, guess not.

Are you still in town? Thought you had moved. I might be game for a get together as long as it isn't too long of a hike. Maybe PSU?

Here's something you don't see everyday. A hurricane wedged between two very deep cutoffs (534 mb, 537 mb) blocked underneath some impressive height builds in Canada. Omen for this winter?

Some people wait to see Geese flying over their heads heading south to know that winter is just around the corner. But not I, I wait for you to come out of hibernation. Once I see that I know we are good to go. Nice to have you back.

Why am I always the last to find out about these things. Now I am at a loss at what to get her. How about Elvis, is he still around?

So does that mean the concert tickets I bought for my wife's B-day aren't good anymore?

Roughly 2 months until we can start to somewhat realistically follow our snow chances especially in the favored areas. Sorry @C.A.P.E.that doesn't include you.

After our vacation this summer Maine has now hit the top of the list in two years when we move. Couple of hours inland off the coast where property values drop a good bit is where we are now considering. Other consideration is the Laurel Highlands (western Pa) where the higher elevations average over a 100 inches a year (had over 300 hundred inches just a few years ago). The laurels also are only 1 1/2 hours out from my wife's childhood home so she has quite a bit of family and friends there. But they don't have a shore line like Maine does and we both love the ocean. Probably come down to general overall taxes and cost of living when all is said and done.

It's just one tool to use. Sometimes they do well, sometimes not so much. You really need to look at everything and form an opinion and not just one tool. That said, IMO the climate models did very well two years ago especially the CanSips. But we were talking a Nina at the time and it behaved like a Nina and not a Nino that didn't act like a Nino that we saw this past year. So take from that what you will.

Anybody that follows winter in the Mid-Atlantic needs therapy. Heck, it's almost as bad as following tropical.

Okay, let's quite talking about last year. I am still butt hurt from the whole thing and don't want to discuss it anymore.

Getting the PAC to cooperate is a good deal of the battle as it is much more forgiving when it comes to our snow chances. If we are bucking the PAC then we are counting on so many other things to go right for our chances. Doesn't mean we can't score, because we have, it just means we are playing with a stacked deck and the dealer is holding all the cards. That said I am liking what I am seeing despite the ENSO state that looks as if it is flirting with Nina status. Climate models seem to be coming on board as well to a cooperative Pac. But it is still early and we saw how last year went. Everything looked golden early on with the potential for a blockbuster winter where we were going to get cooperation from all areas. But the PAC for the most part baled on us though it had some brief moments where it cooperated. Also we only had brief periods of cooperation from the NAO and the AO despite the promise there as well. And then we had meltdowns board wide. One thing to note, if I remember correctly, the only time we scored was when the PAC cooperated. Just goes to show how important that feature is.

No, actually what we are seeing is most likely a good thing. Below we have current SST's in the PAC. Notice the cold pool in the central/western Pac. This cold pool is surrounded by a horseshoe of warm water around Alaska, down the coast to Mexico and into the central PAC. This is actually getting close to an optimal look for the east coast. We will probably see this cold pool expand in the coming weeks. Though we might see some expansion towards the east my money is on us seeing that expand west to off the coast of Japan. This is a good look for us. Now I circled the ENSO region. Notice we are pretty much looking at a neutral state at this point, possibly moving towards a Nina. I will explain shortly why I am bringing that up. Now below I have the different PDO states. The positive which is similar to what we are seeing with the current SSTs and the negative which is the polar opposite. The positive is the one we are searching for as we tend to see the heights set up in a favorable location to see dumps of cold into the central US and move eastward (-EPO/+PNA). This results in a cold east. The negative on the other hand tends to raise heights farther west off the coast and send the cold shots into the west, move them into the central US and then withdraw them before they get into the east. So what we see is a warm SE and normal temps in the NE. Below is a much clearer representation of a +PDO. Notice that we have a much more expansive cold pool and that it is riding up into Japan an eastern Asia. We also have the horse shoe of warm anomalies surrounding it. This is the look we are probably shooting for. Now as you have seen I have circled the ENSO region on all the maps. Notice what is missing on the current SST map compared to the textbook horseshoe +PDO? A Nino, as we are currently seeing a neutral. So what does that tell us? That we are probably still seeing Nino forcings in the Pacific as we head through fall into winter. We continue to see that cold pool, hopefully expanding somewhat and we are good to go knowing that the PAC will probably cooperate. On the other hand, we see that diminish/disappear and we know that we are losing the Nino forcings and will have to depend on other areas (NAO, AO, etc...) to compensate.

Who took it? I bet it was that @EastCoast NPZ dude. Just because he lives in a desert and it sucks he has to ruin it for the rest of us.

The PV is now in the process of setting up. Current 384hr

What I am normally looking for each year is a warm neutral to a moderate Nino. Generally speaking a strong Nino is normally the kiss of death as well as a Nina though we can sometimes score with a weak one. But yeah, give me a moderate Nino with a Modoki any day of the week. Oh and a -NAO if they still exist.

Not going to go back and check at this time but I could have sworn we have seen several winters in the general DC/Balt region that have experienced 25-50% +winters during a weak nino. Could be wrong though. There is no denying that the ENSO is the probably the #1 indice to focus on but you just can't ignore the others because they quite often have a say as well.

Pretty much wall to wall winter (Nov-March). Jan-March has a particularly cold look (EPO-cross polar flow) though I don't think the anomalies give the look justice. Some form of a -NAO every month. Looks to be a weakened PV (-AO?). If that were to verify for the winter I don't think there would be any complaining on these boards. Well except for the usual suspects (JI, you out there?)

Just started looking over it now. Quick glance and all I have to say is, 'Oh my'.

Besides what has been posted on here about the only thing I have looked at so far for the coming winter is the SST's in the PAC and that was 2 or 3 weeks ago. Will probably start looking into things in a week or two though. Will be one of the latest starts for me as far as that goes. Guess last year still is leaving a bitter taste in my mouth.