showmethesnow

Like seeing that setup being thrown up in the longer ranges though to be picky I would like to see it a little farther SW. Was also noticing that though we are seeing a fairly strong pv in the strat (10 mb) centered over the pole it is taking a noticeable slant top down through 500 mb to the surface towards western Alaska/Aleutians. Nice to see and will help to mitigate the strengthening of the pv.

Been looking over the PAC the last week or so. Tending to favor a warm neutral to a borderline weak nino at this time. Now whether we see a Modoki style setup with the SSTs is still up in the air at this time though I do lean in that direction somewhat. Think that will become much clearer in the next few weeks. Wild card may be the IOD and its interaction with ENSO and I don't know nearly enough about the interplay. Want to look at some analogs between those two in the coming days to get a better feel.

Not really sure the 3 years you threw up (04-05, 14-15, 18-19) are a good match. Just looking at the 3 month mean (dec-feb) they differ quite a bite. If you look in the key areas, the domains (NAO, AO, PNA, etc..) we are seeing some extreme differences in values. And these differences are even more notable when you compare month to month. So I am not so sure what value blending the 3 years together really has especially when it is such a small sample size. While I agree focusing on the Pacific is key as in most years it is the main driver, I am not so sure that just the general overall SST look through the whole basin is where I would begin or even base my whole outlook on. There is a good reason that people focus first and foremost on the ENSO domain. Now while the ONI values are somewhat similar between these years, notice the SST distribution along the equator through the ENSO region and how they differ. With these differing looks we are seeing different forcings that are affecting the Walker Cell strength and location within the Pacific (see modoki nino as an example). This Walker cell setup is probably the key thing that should be focused on. So if you want to focus on SST distribution I would probably start there and then work out to the secondary areas (warm blob, IOD, etc...) of importance and then use the general overall SST's as a fine tuning. Now considering that we are discussing the winter weather for the Atlantic I am not so sure I would also totally ignore the other secondary drivers downstream. Though not often, we do see on a occasion where they do trump the PAC (such as a strong -NAO). Even when they don't override the PAC they do add nuances to the pattern through our region that can make or break us as most years we are living on the edge.

Don't look now but the CFS is starting to throw out some pretty good looks. December through March no less and November is getting there as well.

Sometimes I look for the hard solutions when the easy ones are staring me in the face. Still would prefer not to have two browsers open at once (for memory purposes) but it will do until I figure the issue out.

Really wish I could see what you and others are posting from Twitter. Haven't been able to see any of them for over a month now. Can't figure out what the issue is. Tried disabling my ad-block as well as the Nortons Web Safe to see if they may be the cause. But no luck there. The fact that it does throw it up for a second or so before it drops it makes me wonder if it maybe is timing out on the download? Kind of pi**ing me off at this point.

Probably want to keep an eye on what we see off Japan when it comes to the IOD influence for the northern Pacific. Typically during a + phase we see warm anoms off the coast of Japan. Right now we do see mostly warm anoms there. But if we look at the 7 day change we do see the waters cooling at this time.

Curious as to why yesterdays rain gets thrown into October. Didn't come after mid-night did it?

Good to know. I'll be your taste tester. 6 bottles should be enough from each of you to get an accurate read on your product. I'll PM my address to you both.

@frd Not really sure what samsara is seeing that he thinks there is a potential split in the works. Especially if he is just going by the 10 mb map he is displaying. That is a pretty rock solid pv with very little displacement off the pole and with no indications of a major disturbance/flux incoming anywhere. Maybe he is seeing something at a lower level of the atmosphere and posted the wrong map?

You really don't want to see a strong and building pv early on, in the late fall heading into the winter. It just makes it that much more difficult to disrupt and displace. That said the above post was more an observation of what the GEFS was showing at this time. For all I know the EPS is going in another direction as I have yet to re up my weatherbell to find out. Or the GEFS is just flat out wrong. Now as far as what the GEFS is showing at this time, I would prefer not to see that but I can live with it because it is still early. But if it is spitting out those looks and tendencies come mid/late November then that is a different story.

BWI: 11/16 DCA: 11/26 IAD: 11/16 RIC: 11/26 Tiebreaker: 8”

Nah. At least not yet.

So it is.

Want to talk to you about a promotion (Jr Reaper has a nice ring to it) and a raise. I have spent many an hour over the last few years setting up the weenies with promises of snow riches just to dash their hopes in the end for your cause that I feel I deserve it.

Not really enthused with what I see on the GEFS in regards to the PV in the extended. Below is day 16 at the top of the atmosphere (10mb) and you will notice that the core of the PV as well as the coldest temps are centered on top of the pole. Also notice the the pv is quite rounded. This is not the look of a weakened and/or displaced pv but of one that is strengthening. Now lets step down to 250 mb where the jet is. below we see the current jet setup which is actually a good look for disturbing the pv. If you notice the jet streaks are snaking all over the place with intrusions into the upper latitudes (Circled). These intrusions are pumping up temps and heights around the pole which help to weaken the pv. But this is what we are looking at on day 16. We are seeing the jet taking on a more circular shape around the pv without intrusions into the upper latitudes. Also if you look at the wind barbs you notice we are also seeing the core of the pv centered over the pole. Not only that we are starting to see a strong Pac jet now popping up (circled) which is also a good indicator that we are seeing a strengthening/strong pv. This feature has bitten us in the ass on numerous occasions over the years including last year. This is really not the look I want to see as we are progressing through the formation of the pv. Now we will step down to 500 mb. What we are seeing currently are some great looking height builds into the pole and as a consequence the pv is split and displaced off the pole (2 major pieces circled). Also if we look at the general overall wave lengths that are circling the general pv we are seeing large undulations. Good look. But now we have day 16. We are no longer seeing large undulations with the wave lengths that circle the broader scale features of the pv as they are flattening out (black circle). We are also seeing the core of the pv strengthening, rounding and planting over the pole underneath the pv at 250 and 10 mbs. Now when we look at the temps at 850 mbs we notice all the heat around the pole presently. This is indicative of height builds through that region which are disruptive to the placement and strength of the pv. Again a good look. And yet when we look at day 16 notice much of that heat has now bled away as the pv is strengthening and building downward through the atmosphere. Now some of what I posted above can maybe be attributed to smoothing that we see when we get to the end of the extended but I think it is above and beyond what would be typical. Maybe as that period of time nears we will see the finer details popping out and giving us a better look or even maybe the GEFS is just flat out wrong. But at this point all the signs on the GEFS in my mind are pointing to a strong pv forming as we head into late fall and early winter. **** Want to try to get a winter outlook out by the end of October. Have started on it but have been so busy with other things (and that looks to continue) I am not so sure I can find the time. I will say that I am not getting the warm and fuzzies when it comes to the front end of the winter. As far as the middle and back end that is still up in the air in my mind as I do see some things that are promising. Could very well be a winter where we see one extreme to the other (warm/dry to cold/wet) as we see a major flip sometime in the middle of winter. But as I said I have just started looking at things so these are just preliminary thoughts.

Had to check. And yes it is easy as pie now. Have to give that a

ya think?

Think a big part of the early warning is to give a heads up to the ranchers. Don't know how many times in the 70/80's you heard about live stock out there getting decimated by these early winter storms. Now not so much as they are getting early enough warning to move their herds to safety.

And Showme adds to his collection.

Can't really get too worked up about the lack of rain. During the summer it's a different story because of the garden but now not so much. And the lack of rain during a warm fall is pretty standard (as I have seen time and again over the years) considering the long wave pattern that sets up typically to bring us that warmth (minus any tropical of course). As far as the height builds in the upper latitudes? I like what we have been seeing recently. Will it translate into the winter is a different story though. But so far so good as it should hinder the development of the PV. Give me a weakened and disturbed PV any winter and I will gladly roll the dice as far as the predominant long wave pattern that sets up.

Think I am taking the under on temps on the extended myself. Awful lot of amplification with the long wave pattern and though we are getting to that time of year where you come to expect to see that it is still a little early. That said, would love to see this come in as depicted despite the heat it would bring. Pump up the heat and heights in the upper latitudes that this sort of amplification would bring so early in the game (as far as winter) would bode well for disrupting the formative stages of the PV.

At camp myself. Was up and out around 5 and it was quite nippy. Normally will sit outside on the deck drinking coffee. But after a couple of minutes of watching steam billow out of my mouth and freezing my butt off I gave it up and went back into the trailer and cranked the heat up.

Per the gefs the PAC jet looks as if it will take a beating the next 2+ weeks. Latest run shows it looks fairly tame at the end of the extended. Quite a few previous runs follow with this general theme as well. Also the gefs is hitting pretty hard on the idea of a STJ setting up as well, a pineapple Express. Still quite early so let's see where we stand 3-4 weeks down the road with those features.

Any of the stouts you want to give a shout out about? Always hunting for new ones to try.