showmethesnow

There is one big difference between previous years and what we are now seeing. Previous years the models were hitting hard with a -NAO from the get go (day 15/16) in the long range only to weaken it and eventually (in most cases) lose it as it neared in time (under 10 days). What we have right now is that the models didn't start seeing this possible -NAO until it was inside of 10 days on the models and they have been strengthening it as it nears in time. You can see this if you go back and look through the last week of runs or so. Does this mean we will see a -NAO? No, but I sure am liking the tendencies now as opposed to then. Lucky Roller

Kuchera snowfall map is even more impressive then the 10-1 you have here. Showing a foot+ through DC/Balt.

What we are seeing on the ensembles the last couple of days are some killer looks. Fantasy snow thread will start hopping if these looks are for real. Will we see snow? Probably not (anything of consequence), but they will be fun to look at none the less. Mentioned a few days ago the PAC looked primed but the Atlantic wasn't there. But now we are seeing the models hitting hard on a -NAO. Really a great look at this time as we head into the snow season. If this is foreshadowing what we can expect this coming winter then there will many happy snow weenies on these boards in the east.

00Z GFS, Euro and EPS are in fairly good agreement. GEFS is the holdout with showing the maxes over southern MD into the eastern shore.

Yeah it would be nice to have a cooperative pac. Makes it so much more forgiving if we do see a lack of blocking. But I am not so sure I would give up on the idea of a predominantly -nao regime this winter. I am leaning somewhat towards this myself. As often is the case in recent years it may come down to the models not picking up on it until it is on our doorstep.

The years I did weed out went counter to what we saw with the years that had a somewhat comparable enso state. Not going to go back and check but I believe we saw a very strong +ao with two and the other three were showing the high latitude blocking popping elsewhere. But as you said we are talking such small sample sizes a lot of what we think we know about the qbo can probably be considered speculation more then anything else. I'm with you. I have no idea what to expect as well. As I mentioned in an earlier post there are quite a few conflicting signals at this time in my mind and depending on which direction you look we are talking either boom or bust or anything in between. Think the next month though should give us some better clarity.

Now that is a pic. Deer hamming it up for the camera. Guessing you had a saltlick there?

Cold enough, man. Ran out of propane overnight and woke up to 30's in the trailer. Brrrrrrr......

Now we are starting to talk. Models are starting to pick up on the idea of good ridging up the west coast into Canada. Also see hints of troughing/weakness undercutting this ridging in the SW in the southern flow. Western Alaska/aleutian troughing is also in the equation. Pretty Sweet look as far as the PAC and the flow through the CONUS is responding accordingly. Western Atlantic up into the nao domain still has some work to be done but we are seeing the East coast ridging/WAR breaking down and/or migrating towards Greenland which is a hell of a good start in getting the Atlantic to cooperate. For the beginning of November you couldn't ask for more. Hopefully we are seeing the base state of the PAC of which after any temporary breakdowns we will return to. If so I would like our chances for at least the first half of winter. But you know then drill, models at the end of the extended...

Got a little bit of rain? That should trigger your cacti to bloom. Send us some pics.

Ft McHenry? Cold here in the mountains of south central pa but no freeze. Currently sitting at 39.

Did my first sweep of the fallen leaves up at camp in the mountains (south/central pa just out of Mount Holly Springs). Amount of leaves were about what I would have expected at this time of year. One thing that is noticable is the lack of color. Maybe it will pick up in the next week or two but so far it is nowhere what I would expect to see.

Been pretty much MIA the last few weeks due to time constraints and that doesn't look to change much the next month or so. But I thought I would throw out some general thoughts while I am taking some R&R the next few days at camp. Haven't been particularly enthused with what I have been seeing with the current tendencies nor the longer ranges being displayed on the models. We are once again seeing the dumps into the west setting up the mean troughing in that local just as we have seen the last few years. And as I have said the last few years without consistant blocking in the nao region and/or down into se Canada we are going to struggle in regards to snow. In conjunction with the west troughing we are also seeing a tendency for strong ridging in the east. Again, not so good. And the nao, is it now doing a disappearing act? I also am not particularly happy with seeing very little to no disruption to the strat PV now nor in the forseeable future (next 15/16 days) allowing for that feature to continue to strengthen. I will say though that there are some indications at 500 mb that this may change come mid November as higher heights build over the pole and we see a displacement of the 500 mb Pv into northern Canada. Now whether this eventually translates upwards into 10 mb region only time will tell (if in fact we do see height builds). Now as far as the above, we are still early in the game and we are in the seasonal transition period so though I would like to see otherwise, in the long run it probably doesn't mean much. Now if we continue to see these tendencies without a potential disruption/weakening of the Pv come mid November then I will probably start to panic in regards to the first half of winter. Looking over things for a possible winter forecast on my part in a few weeks and I have more questions then answers at this point. I look in one direction and some notably good winters turn up. And yet when I look in another direction there are some real dogs. So to say there are some conflicting signals in my mind would be an understatement. If I do in fact post a forecast I may actually wait until mid-November. Think at that point some of mixed signals I am seeing now will become much clearer. The eastern Pac into the EPO region is beginning to raise questions in my mind. We are not seeing the clarity we once were seeing from the models as they are now getting wishy washy in regards to height builds and strengths within that region. Believe this may be due to the almost pac basin wide warm SST anomalies that the models are picking up on. There is nothing for the models to key on for possible forcings (lack of sst contrasts). One thing I will keep an eye on in the coming weeks will be the central pac. What we have seen in the enso region is a move towards a modoki style sst temp profile with some good neg temp anomalies migrating westward from s America and IOD induced cooling moving eastward from the western Pacific. And in the middle, 3.4 and 4 regions, we are seeing the warm water piling up. Now why this is important is that this will provide the contrast needed to provide the focus for our tropical forcings. In fact I do think we are probably beginning to see the effects of this enso forcing as we are now seeing what looks to be a cold pool beginning to form to the north in the central/western pac. This is what I would expect to see. From what I am seeing I think indications are pretty good that this modoki profile would last at least until the first part of winter. IF... I am correct on the above (starting to feel somewhat confident) that potentially bodes well for our chances for at least the first half of winter. Never want to second guess the weather, it's going to do what it wants to do after all, but if we see the above occur the natural response of the height builds in the eastern pac should be to shift eastward possibly/hopefully even into the western CONUS. Right now the models have been too far west with that ridging for my tastes which makes us highly dependent on strong blocking over top of us for our chances. But the further and further that ridging gets shifted eastward the less and less we are dependent on blocking. Now if there is any merit to my thoughts we probably won't have to wait long to find out. This should be something the models would begin to pick up on the next week or two.

Noticed the new setup is missing panels as well though not to the degree we saw last year. One thing that is aggravating about that is that when you are clicking forward through the hours on the panels when you get to a failed downloaded panel it stops the ability to click forward anymore. You then have to go up onto the bar and advance it manually. That will get old extremely quickly for me.

Think I would probably fine tune the years he has. At this time I think odds are pretty good we are looking at a warm neutral ENSO. So giving a spread of a cold neutral to a weak Nino that weeds out 5 of those years. 2003 is a moderate Nino. 2000 is a weak Nina that is coming off a strong Nina base state. 1996 is a border line Moderate Nina. 1965 is a weak Nina. 1956 is a border line strong Nina. So going with the remaining years gives us this. Not a bad look with plenty of blocking in the NAO domain. Also like seeing the lower heights in the 50/50 region giving us the -NAO/50/50 combo. Hesitate a little when I see the lower height anomalies in the SW but the western based NAO should hopefully help on occasion to keep systems underneath us. Not a particularly cold look and one that will probably mean variable weather for our region as the NAO waxes and wanes. Looking at the individual years the blocking in and around the NAO is a dominate theme. But we are seeing quite a bit of variability in the eastern Pacific (EPO, PNA, Aleutian low). Not really enamored with the general idea of the flow through the states on most members though. With the general look being presented our snow chances will be highly dependent on seeing good blocking in the NAO domain down through central/southern eastern Canada or a -NAO/50/50 combo.

You need to pull up the US map or US regions/States and they pop up. They don't cover all the different parameters but they do have most if not all the ones we saw last year (mslp, snow, etc...). One thing I am disappointed in is that they only provide 4 states to look at and MD or adjacent states are not there. So we are basically relegated to looking at the mid-Atlantic region so we aren't going to get the fine details as we did in the past.

Maybe watch caddyshack and get a few pointers on how to handle those varmints.

Didn't notice that. Hope they add them as well. Would be a bummer to lose the close up view. Right now the mid-Atlantic view is far to broad to get any of the finer details for our area when it comes to snowfall.

Just picked up weatherbell and have had a chance to look it over. Like the setup a lot better then the previous. Much easier navigation. One thing it is missing, at least I haven't seen it as of yet, are the individual members for the GEFS and the EPS. Really would hate to lose that so I hope I am just missing them or they will add it down the road a little.

Thanks. Getting to that time of year so have been considering reupping shortly myself. Maybe tomorrow morning.

Any issues with downloading? Know last year it quite often failed to download all of the GFS/GEFS panels which really became annoying.

I just attribute it to you being a bitter man wishing to spread your bitterness and anger to others.

I'll have to look into the PMM. Not really familiar with it. Out of curiosity, what years is he talking about?

So now we know where to lay the blame. Glad you fessed up.