showmethesnow

Great minds think alike. Of course it doesn't hurt that if I am wrong at least I have a fellow shipmate to go down on the Titanic with me. Pretty much agree with everything you are saying except differ somewhat on what the models suggest in regards to the AO (or at least I believe we see a much more robust signal). Looking at the mid and upper levels is suggestive to me that we see some fairly impressive height builds over the pole and polar regions (2-3 weeks). These same things are also suggestive of major fracturing and displacement southward of the pv at 500's, aka strong -ao.

To say I am less then enthused about the prospects at this time, especially west of the bay would be an understatement. As the snow maps suggest I believe the best chances for anything of substance will be confined to the eastern/southern portions of MD and NE Va as we do see a slug of moisture riding up from the south just in time to enhance moisture into the frontal passage. Up in my neck of the woods I think we are looking at instability snow and/or rain showers at best as the 500's swing through with very little to nothing with the frontal passage. And I am not really impressed with the 500's at this time but will reserve judgment until we get within 48-72 hours as the models should pick up by then on any possible energy rotating through.

Whether right or wrong the ensembles are advertising a mostly CONUS wide warm up as we head into the extended and somewhat beyond. Below we have the EPS (GEFS has some slight differences but generally has the same idea). What will induce this warm up is the PV that has generally been located around the Hudson Bay region will migrate westward towards Alaska/NE Russia. This effectively cuts off cross polar flow which has been sending and will send much colder air relative to norms into our region. With the withdrawal of the pv in central/eastern Canada we are also seeing the amplified troughing in the mid-west/east flattening as well. Part of the reason we were seeing good ridging in the west was due to the backing of the flow that was being induce but the amplified troughing in the east. Take that strong troughing out and we lose that backing and so correspondingly we see the western ridging breakdown as the PAC flow overwhelms it as seen below. Now we do still see an extreme northern based +PNA but it does us little good. What is happening is that the PAC Flow is overwhelming the CONUS effectively putting up a wall against the N Stream which is flowing around the extreme northern ridging. Now below we have the response in temps to this setup. Notice we have basically warmth through the whole of N America at the end of the extended (We do see below norm temps in the SW which are the product of weakness/troughing we see in that region.). As we can see, the N Stream is flowing off the N PAC around the troughing setup by the PV. With coming off the PAC these temps are moderated somewhat so they are showing as warm anomalies through Canada but they would be more then sufficient for our needs if they decided to give us a visit. Unfortunately there is no vehicle to deliver them. The extreme N based ridging comes no where near to providing the oomph to bust through the PAC flow that has setup through the CONUS. And the eastern trough that could have served us as well? That has become muted as well with the pv withdrawal. So the core of the colder air is basically locked up into Canada. Now as far as our region what we could probably expect with this setup is longer periods of warmth with brief intrusions of seasonal to slightly below temps as cold fronts would slide down into the Mid-west and slide eastward as they work around the very weak troughing we see through the region. The cold provided would most likely not be sufficient for our needs (snow) as we are still very early in the season. Now this doesn't take into account an extreme event that can manufacture its own cold (Bombing low, Bowling bowl across the south). So there is always that. Now I know there are some in here who will panic. I wouldn't. This will more then likely be a somewhat brief warmup (2 weeks maybe 3) as there are already signs of this look breaking down at the end of the extended. And we couldn't have asked for better timing as well as this early in the season we struggle mightily anyway (better then handicapping the temps during the heart of winter). This will also be a good test to see if the period we have seen recently is actually the base state (+PNA, -EPO, eastern troughing) that we can expect through the CONUS for at least the first half of winter, which in my mind would be a winner. And some of what I am seeing suggests to me that the models may in fact be beginning the process of reverting to this. There are actually quite a few things I like seeing even while we may be experiencing this relax. The stratpv is actually getting hammered. This pretty much coincides with the CFS projections that it has had for several weeks and what the GEFS has been advertising recently. Also we are seeing quite a disconnect from the 10mb pv down to the 500mb one. Another sign that the pv is under extreme duress. Still want to see a few more days of runs but the evolution I believe we are over/around the pole beyond the extended is one that will actually feature some great blocking (think big red ball) with a correspondingly strong -AO. As far as the NAO domain I am starting to lean fairly strongly on that becoming a player as well (I favor an eastern based one at this time). Let's see what the next week or so of runs give us and whether the current projections are somewhat accurate. If they are, we could be setting up for a very favorable look come mid-December.

Fringed. That's alright. I will gladly give up these nickle/dimers to you snow starved shore men just as long as I get in on the death bands from all the N'easters we are going to get this year.

Playing with fire with the pv migrating over towards Alaska like that. You can already see the cold getting bottled up on the other side of the globe as N America gets flooded with PAC air and warmth. With the trough/east/ridge/west setup we would get the occasional shot of seasonal/slightly below cold from Canada but at this time of year that won't cut it.

Have only put two others on ignore for the winter throughout the years and they were after the 1'st of the year. And yet here we are a week into November and I am already putting you on ignore. Says a lot about your quality posting or should I say, lack of.

Overnight runs were pretty rough for the Tue/Wed possibilities. Wouldn't give up on it at this point but we have definitely seen a degrade in the look. The make or break day for me is roughly Sunday when we see how the models handle the energy in the different streams in western Canada. The following Friday has a little bit of potential but as has been mentioned we will be probably be dealing with stale cold where we need a manufacturing of cold (bombing low) or a fresh supply that is not evident on the models at this time. Looking at the EPS day 10/11 period has my interest somewhat (The previous Friday event will have a big say, think 50/50 low). Truth be told the whole period day 10 onward interests me. But we are talking the extended and the EPS is somewhat muddled on specific details but overall the pattern is favorable and we are seeing multiple pieces of NS energy diving down through this period.

As some have noted the overall look and evolution with our system next Tue/Wed has changed from possible coastal development to more a glorified frontal passage. And here is why we are basically seeing these differences. Now for those who read my post over the weekend I had noted that what we were seeing was interaction between the PV and NS energy in western Canada which was driving a deep drop of the upper latitude trough southward into the US. We were seeing PAC energy riding underneath unmolested and in front of this trough. It was actually a pretty good setup for possible southern/coastal low development. But what we are now seeing is that there is a partial interaction with the NS energy with PAC energy in the NW. What this is doing is twofold. First it is siphoning off energy from the NS which is weakening its interaction with the pv energy. Thus we are not seeing as vigorous solution between the two (shallower drop of the upper latitude trough). Second the interaction between some of the NS energy and the PAC energy is now creating lower latitude troughing into the SW. So now what we have is a flatter and more progressive flow running in front of these systems. Not a good look for possible coastal development. Now some may cringe when we start talking seeing snow from a frontal passage, me included. After all those that have followed weather in this region for a few years know how well that normally works out for us with the cold chasing the moisture. Normally not so well. But as depicted now on the Euro it actually is a pretty decent setup. Note the 'As depicted now' though. I will run you through some things to show you what I mean. Below we have the 700mb heights and vortice map shortly after precip has begun. Now what I want you to note is where we are seeing the energy situated. This is where we are seeing lift. Also take note of the where we are seeing the 700mb trough setting up. Now lets look at what we are seeing at 500 mbs. ***Just an aside but notice that the 700 mb trough is strongly positive at this stage. Shows the progressive nature of the flow at this point that pretty much shuts off our chances for coastal development.*** Quite often with a frontal passage we will see the lift at 500s displace slightly to the west of the lift seen at 700mbs. But this isn't so much the case here. What we are seeing is a pretty decent displacement to the west at 500mbs. ***Again note the strongly positive tilt of the trough. A very progressive look.*** Now you may be asking yourselves why the displacement of the 700 and 500mb vorticity/lift matters. The diagram below shows why. On the first image we have the general profile of what we generally see at mid levels when it comes lift during a cold front (less displacement between the different levels). As you can see the precip associated with lift shuts off quickly just as the cold air at lower levels starts to enter the picture. We all have seen this, where it rains and rains while we wait for the cold air to bleed in only to watch a couple of water logged flakes plop to the ground just before everything shuts down. Now the second pic shows what we are seeing on the EPS now. This further displacement westward at 500s is allowing the moisture transport to drive deeper into the cold air giving us a much longer period of snow. Now the above diagram (second pic) can be seen when it comes to the cold air. This is the 850's shortly after precip has started to fall. Notice that the 850s have already cleared the metros and we still have a fairly long duration of precip to follow. Quite often times we get the 850's and yet the surface temps are slow to respond. This doesn't look to be the case here. We are seeing a sharp frontal passage on the surface as well as we see 10-14 degree drops in 3 hours putting us quickly into the low/mid 30's' Some have probably noted on the Euro snow map above that the heavier axis of snow is located to the south. Why we are seeing this is that we have a heavier slug of moisture feeding northward from the deep south/gulf just in time to catch up and enhance the snowfall in southern MD/N Va. This moisture is actually driven northward by the lower latitude trough initiated by the PAC/NS energy from the very first map above. Now the above is a winning scenario in my mind for seeing our first accumulating snow region wide. But will this general look last until game time? Maybe, maybe not. If I were to place money I would probably put it on us seeing further changes. There is a lot of energy streaming through the PAC and NS flows not to mention the energy flowing around the pv. And this doesn't even bring into account all the energy at different levels. It is a very active pattern and to think the models are handling these parcels of energy correctly is probably asking too much.

For those that live and die by each op run on our possible system that is a week out. Don't. You are far better off looking at the ensembles which will give you a far more accurate read to the mid and longer range forecasts. And the ensembles continue to show improvement in regards to the potential. Below we see the 12z run of the EPS from yesterday. Note the drop of the trough in the east as well as the higher heights ridging in the northern Atlantic. Also look at the orientation of the height lines (black line) running through our region and off the coast. This really isn't a bad look. But now compare the above to what we see with the latest 00Z run. We are seeing a deeper and farther west drop of the trough as well as a shifting westward of the higher heights in the northern Atlantic. Notice how the height lines through our region and running off the coast have responded? We are seeing a much sharper north/south orientation of this feature. This alignment is more conducive to tucking any low we do see form closer into the coast as well as giving more room for that low to intensify. It is also a more favorable setup for any potential phasing of NS/PV energy rotating around the trough with PAC energy riding underneath it. This is a pretty good upgrade from the look we saw above. Now lets look at the surface in response to the 500's above. What we saw yesterday was high pressure situated in the northern Atlantic with cold air dropping into the Midwest and moving eastward. Notice the temp gradient through our region which is somewhat flat, SSW to ENE. With the means it washes out the lower pressure but generally it is situated a distance off our shores. Now this is the latest run. Notice that we have seen the higher pressures in the northern Atlantic shifted westward. We are also seeing the colder air dropping deeper southward and its eastward progression has slowed somewhat. In response we see a sharper N/S gradient of the temp profile in the east compared to the above. This setup is allowing low formation much closer to the coast then the above. This look here shows a good deal of promise at this time. Haven't posted the GEFS but that has improved as well. What we saw there was a pretty significant change at 500's over it's 12z run that brings it much more in line with the EPS. Now though I like what I am seeing as well as the trends my expectations are low. It is November after all. BUT... I do see the possibilities.

I can't help but remember the olden days when the GFS came in suppressed in this time frame that we knew we were golden. Through the different versions we have seen since we have still seen the tendency to suppress but nowhere near to the degree we were seeing 10 years ago. As far as the newest version? Still trying to get a feel. Sometimes I think it shows this tendency and other times not so much. Last week when this period first started to broach the extended I felt it had some decent potential. Just the general overall look/wavelengths showed promise. Nice to see that it has held and we are now within 7/8 days. But as you said Nov temps/climo can be a killer, especially for the metros. But the latest Euro solution is so close (bombing low off our coast) that I highly doubt temps would be an issue in such a scenario. All that said, Isn't it about time the Euro starts thinking about dashing our hopes small step by small step? And the GFS starts giving us false hope?

06Z GFS took a decent step towards the Euro for the day 7/8 system.

Euro/EPS is still biting on this period of time that it hinted at last week at the end of its extended with a Coastal/Miller B solution on its overnight run. What we are seeing is a weak impulse of PAC jet energy sliding to our south through VA. 500's dropping in behind it initiate coastal development of this energy. 500's are closing off and dropping down through southern MD/N VA. We are seeing such a robust 500 solution due to interaction between NS energy and PV energy as they drop in through the Mid-west. Below we can see the different pieces of energy that are involved. We have the NS (north stream) energy that has ridden up and over the EPO ridge and is now dropping down into the Midwest. Beside it we see the energy that is rotating around the PV and dropping in behind the NS energy in a favorable position for phasing. Underneath these features we see the PAC energy which will slide to the south then turn up through VA and then the coast. The combined NS/PV energy is dropping down behind the PAC energy, again in a favorable position, but the timing between these two features is slightly off. Thus we are seeing a phase up off the NE coast, far too late to benefit us. This results in a modest coastal for our region but nothing I would call explosive. But... speed up the NS/PV energy or slow down the PAC energy to decrease the distance/timing between the two and we probably have explosive development, which would probably occur farther south in a much more favorable local for the metros. Now we are talking features (energy in the midlevels) that the models will have difficulty handling at 7/8 days . Timing will always be suspect as well as the fact that these packets of energy may only be a figment of the models imagination (I start taking the models somewhat seriously with these features when we get within 3 days or so). Below we have the 10-1 snowfall map. Looks as if @C.A.P.E. will be taking a trip to Bethany/Rehoboth again. Maybe @WxWatcher007 will split the costs of a room with him. All I can say to them is, post pics. ETA: Actually some pretty good support from the EPS for development of a low in the east and/or off the coast during this time.

Really a lot to like with what we are seeing on the GFS/GEFS/Euro/EPS through the extended. If the models are somewhat right and are showcasing the general base state (after any relaxes) as well as some key features being presented it bodes well for the first half of winter where I would not be shocked to see us reach our seasonal averages by the first of the year. Thought I would break down the things I am seeing at this time. Below is the 10 day mean (day 6-16) on the GEFS. This is pretty close to fulfilling my wish list for our snow chances. Trough in the east, ridging in the west. -EPO with an Aleutian trough. +PNA overcutting a weakness/troughing in the SW. Ridging into Greenland with an active PV centered over the Hudson Bay. Now this look is rock solid throughout the 16 days on the GEFS. This fact gives a strong argument that this may be base state we see for the foreseeable future. And with one exception the EPS mirrors what we are seeing on the GEFS. The one exception is that the EPS relaxes the pattern for 3 days or so at the end of extended. What is noteworthy about that though is that at the very end of the extended you can see the EPS snapping back quite quickly to the general look below. This fact also gives a strong argument that this look may be the base state. Now I thought I would break things down even farther from what we see in the general pattern above. Lets look at what we are seeing around Alaska. The -EPO and the Aleutian troughing are creating a split flow in the upper latitudes. This is creating a polar jet overriding and dropping down the east side of the ridging delivering cold. Within this jet we are seeing quite a bit of energy streaming down within it as well. Now when we look at the Aleutian trough we are seeing a constant stream of lows rotating around that trough. These lows are interjecting quite a bit of energy into the PAC flow as it enters the CONUS.These lows are also accomplishing one other thing that I will go into a little later. So what we have here is cold air delivery along with plenty of energy for possible storm development into a favorable trough/ridging setup through the CONUS for the east. Now let's see what we have in central Canada and into the NAO domain. We are seeing an active PV that has plenty of energy rotating around it and it is generally centered over the Hudson Bay which is a favorable local for the East Coast. We are also seeing ridging popping into Greenland. Now what is appetizing about this is that anyone of these pieces of energy rotating around the pv has a chance of blowing up and creating a NAO/50/50 block (that is if the PV itself doesn't rotate there because it is doing a lot of gyrations). Needless to say this combo can produce some of our bigger storms. Now let's move over to the PAC into the 250 mb region where the jets lie. This is just a snapshot of a period of time that shows several features going on. I used the GFS as to it gives more clarity/detail to the features that get lost with the watering down we see on the ensembles. Note that some of these features are popping up here and there throughout the 16 days. First off we have a strong jet straight jet entering the Pacific. Not really what we want to see if you recall last year. But we are seeing a significant difference here. This PAC jet is undergoing an onslaught from the constant stream of lows (one is circled in blue below) that are rotating around the Aleutian trough. These are effectively disrupting and diffusing the jets energy and sending it in all directions. Also of note though not shown at this period of time, we are seeing an on again/off again split flow setup in the SW and just off the coast as lows rotate/form in the general region where a weakness/troughing was noted before. This split flow provides the opportunity of a tropical jet popping up during these times (drew an arrow for where the tropical jet sets up but it is not present at this time). One feature I have been interested in and keeping an eye on for the last couple of weeks is what we are seeing in the Gulf/Yucatan/Mexico region. What we have been seeing is a pretty steady state anticyclonic rotation that has been planted somewhere through that general region for some time now. This is actually a very promising feature as it opens the gulf up to possibilities as well as helps to promote the lifting of any southern/tropical jet northward in the east. Also of note with this feature is that we have seen a tropical jet pop up several times already around this feature that has been detached from the one that we would typically see coming from central Pacific/Hawaii (Pineapple express). This jet is actually being pulled from the deep south (close to the equator) and being rotated up and around the anticyclone in the upper levels. Now one final map to hopefully drive home the potential we see with this pattern. Again will go with a snapshot of the GFS. Look at all the energy we see streaming everywhere. We see pieces rotating around the PV in Canada. We see them in the NS riding down the EPO ridge over Alaska. We see energy riding in on the PAC jet. We see energy coming in on the southern stream from the central Pacific and we see energy riding up from the equator around the anticyclone in the upper levels around the Gulf. And all of this energy is directed into a trough in the east. This look provides many ways to score from nickels and dimes to big ticket items and anything in between. Now if we were a month later in the season I would be somewhat confident putting good money on us seeing measurable if not noteworthy snowfall probably for a good portion of our region if the GEFS were to verify the next 16 days. As it is, I think many will see their first flakes of the year with the favorable locals maybe cashing in somewhat. Again, if the GEFS is somewhat accurate with what it is presenting at this time. I guess tracking season has now officially begun as far as I am concerned.

Been watching that for the last week or so. Almost posted something this morning on it. Euro (WB doesn't have 10 mb-50 mb for the EPS) has a similar setup at 240 hrs as the GEFS though the warmth on the Russian side is displaced somewhat farther south. So one could maybe guess that it would have a somewhat similar evolution beyond hour 240? Like seeing the top down heating as well as the wave two action and did find the placement of the heating in the N Atlantic strange as well. Not seeing much in the way of disturbance nor displacement with the pv on the models as of yet but would not be surprised as that period of time nears that the models start picking up on it and/or shortly after the end of the extended. Even if we don't see a response from the pv one can be assured that this 1, 2 punch is having an impact on the pv. Now what does all this mean for possible sensible weather for our region? No idea, especially with seeing the warmth over the N Atlantic.

GEFS is luke warm at best to the possibility of a coastal roughly day 14-15 that is suggested on the EPS. About the only clue that suggests the possibility is that we are seeing confluence setting up in the south during this time period. Problem is, is that we are seeing a fairly deep drop of the trop pv into central Canada which is suppressing the flow through the east. We see that relax some in future runs and then I would not be surprised if the GEFS started picking up on the possibilities. That said one member does show 6-10 through all of central MD from what looks to be a southern system pulling northward.

EPS is hinting at the possibility of southern/coastal low at the end of the extended (roughly a 1/4 of the members are seeing it). Really not worth breaking it down into detail but we are seeing neg temp departures at that time. Whether they would be cold enough is another story. Snow maps do have a handful of members or so that show something (mostly mood flakes) in the general region. One member would win the hearts of many in here as it is generally a region wide 6-10"s.

Solar factors into my thoughts, though as you said there is typically a lag time from the min. And the question there is when do we actually hit the min. Not to mention that it correlates more to general high latitude blocking (-AO) then to specifically a -NAO though the blocking tends to favor the NAO region. QBO and its progression also are factoring in. There are also other small things here and there as well as tendencies within the pattern that are influencing my thoughts. DUH! Wrote this up awhile ago and just realized I never posted it. Getting old sucks.

It has felt like forever where every second post of mine during the winter has discussed energy dumping/not dumping into the perpetual weakness we see in the southwest. There is only so many times you can mention that we need to see the west coast ridging slide eastward over cutting the weakness in the southwest. Or that we don't want to see a stronger trough because it will bump up the SE ridging. Or that we need to see a -NAO (and not getting it) to offset the PAC's influence with the CONUS flow. So when does it end? IT ENDS NOW, DAMIT! Because I said so. But in all seriousness I believe we will see changes within the PAC when we finally start realizing a legit -NAO regime during the winter again. When will that happen though? My money is that we will see that flip this year or next. Actually somewhat optimistic that we may see it this year though it may be the latter half of winter before it starts manifesting itself.

The EPS is actually a pretty good look when it comes to the EPO/WPO regions. Right now it is just missing but slide that ridging eastward 100/200 miles where it is over cutting the SW weakness/troughing somewhat (would mitigate the N Stream dumps into the west) and the upper latitude trough and the flow through the east notably improves.

The problem with the EPS is that any system that amplifies/strengthens to our west in that setup would tend to move poleward until it meets some resistance towards US/Canada border probably putting it to our north and west as it passes by. Now this look is suggestive of possible over running events where weak energy slides along the boundary kicking moisture into the colder air. But even then I think we would be fighting to see the energy slide under us. Even if we did see the energy sliding under us if you look at the pressure anomalies they would argue that any more noteable winter precip would be located towards the border where the stronger neg anomalies are located. This is where you will typically see the deeper colder air located. EPS has us on the northern fringe of the + pressure anomalies which is where you typically do not want to be in an over running setup (shallow cold, if any, quickly eroded) if you want more then a possible quick shot of wintery precip before a quick flip over to rain.

Nothing in your face about what the GEFS is now throwing at us but this is a very workable look during the winter (probably still a month too soon at this point though). Also a good example of why you don't just look at indices alone but you also need to see the bigger picture and see how all the pieces are interacting. Through this 5 day time period at the end of the extended we are seeing a weak -AO, a neutral NAO, a weak -EPO moving neutral, a moderate -WPO, and a neutral PNA. Looking at these indice values alone you would probably MEH our chances. And yet put them together and I would put our chances of scoring better then average during the winter. The EPS doesn't look as promising, in fact it probably favors the GL into the interior of the NE, but it really isn't that far from being workable look as well. Now the differences between the GEFS and the EPS on the flow through the CONUS are minimal at best so one may ask why one looks better then the other. So I thought I would throw up what is causing this slight difference. If you look at the GEFS below and look around Alaska we are seeing the upper latitude ridging setting up through the Aleutians with troughing to the east through Alaska. What this is creating is a flat PAC flow underneath that into the US. Over top of that feature we are seeing the N Stream dumping down into the US. This flat PAC flow is helping to divert any energy streaming down the N Stream to the east instead of allowing energy to move towards and strengthening the weakness/trough we see in the Southwest. Subsequently we are seeing the upper latitude trough setting up through the Midwest in a favorable local for our region. But look what we are seeing with the EPS. The ridging and troughing up around Alaska are flipped. What this is allowing is ridging to develop off of the west coast in the PAC flow which in turn favors troughing to develop to its east. Think of this tendency for troughing as an invite for any energy flowing down the N Stream to go visit the weakness we see in the SW. And in fact this is what we are seeing on the EPS. Now the ridging and troughing on the west coast aren't extreme so we are only seeing a partial dump of N Stream energy into the SW. But this partial dump is enough to strengthen the troughing just enough to see a subsequent bump of heights in the southeast CONUS (black circle) that we do not see on the GEFS. One other thing you will note is that this partial dump in energy in the SW is also skewing the upper latitude trough westward away from the Midwest that we see on the GEFS. This whole setup alters the flow in the east and shifts it northwards. Now as I said the EPS is close, it wouldn't take much to flip its current look into a workable look as well. Then again, it wouldn't take much to flip the GEFS as well. Just a little bit of energy gets dumped into the southwest from the N Stream and we end up with the EPS scenario.

Graph of the above is the forecasted zonal wind from early October through the present. But if you looked at what we actually saw, it came no where near to verifying (circled below). In fact after a mild bump up in speeds we saw a subsequent noticeable decline. Now the GEFS forecasted winds show a continuation of the decline for the next few days before we do see a bump up of wind speeds again but one would have to take that with a good deal of caution after its pretty noteworthy Fail on its last predicted spike. Now it probably isn't worth much, but the seasonal (CFS) actually shows a fairly significant drop in wind speeds through the winter in particular during the heart of winter. For those not familiar this probably would signify a weakened/disturbed/displaced strat Pv as well as hopefully a predominantly -AO regime through the winter.

??? I am already already seeing some differences/tendencies in the evolution from last year to this year. We may see 15-18" (not saying we do) when all is said and told but it probably won't be because it copied last year.

Latest NAM is showing 2+ for you. Also shows 2+ DC north and east with Balt. at 3.5. Really wet run. And looking at radar looks as if it might lend some credence to the NAM. eta: Fairly sharp cutoff to the N and w though where I am only looking at .5 inches. But that was to be expected.

What? Cold rain? We do that well in the Mid-Atlantic.