showmethesnow

So that's what a AO+++++++++++++++++ looks like? Would have never guessed. Was looking over the strat this morning and I have to wonder if we are on the doorstep of a SSW. The extreme warmth that we will see at 10 mbs which will be centered over the pole is now looking to propagate down to at least the 50 mb level. Have yet to find a site for the 100 mb or 200 mb level to get a read there.

Looks to be the same issue as the overnight Euro. NS is dropping farther south and to the west of previous runs so we are seeing the higher heights to the storms NE breaking down. Also doesn't help that the system is a little slower so that is giving even more time for those heights to drop. Doesn't help for our front end chances that we are seeing greater height anomalies within the ridge creeping southward as well. But we always knew that this one would be a tough one to bring home. Still 3 1/2 days to work with before the over running sets in so let's see where this goes.

Euro took a step backwards overnight. Very easily fixed problem though with a feature that the models mishandle all the time. Also shows the need for stronger ridging (greater height anomalies) located on the northern portion of the eastern ridge that I am sure some of you were shaking your head over when I mentioned it. ***Greater anomalies in the northern portion will not effect the flow through our region. But greater anomalies located in the southern portion will as they will push the boundary northward of us in advance of the system*** Below we have yesterday's 12z run. If you notice we have stronger height anomalies to the NE of the system running through the Midwest. These are important as they help to force the storm south as well as to help turn the trough axis the storm is embedded in. The stronger the better with this feature. These height anomalies are produced from the greater height anomalies we see earlier in the evolution in the norther portion of the ridge. As the ridge gets squeezed between the 50/50 and the incoming storm those higher heights get pushed northward.. Of note, also look at where the NS energy is located and pressing down (Black arrow). Now look what we have on the latest run. Notice that we are seeing weaker heights to the NE of the system. These heights were on par with the previous 12z run earlier in the process but now they are being beat down by the NS energy which is now dropping farther west. As a result we are nor seeing the system dropping as far south as on the previous run. Pretty much shows you how important that these heights are. But as I said it is a very easy problem to fix with a feature that the models mishandle all the time up to and even inside of 24 hours. ETA: Seeing the same issue with the NS on the EPS as well but not quite as extreme. Also seeing weaker heights in the northern portion of the ridge initially which is also translating to weaker heights to the NE of the storm later.

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Looks pretty toasty.

Models are trending favorably for the period shortly after the Dec 2nd event. Below we have the GEFS 500s from 2 days ago. Notice the deep push southward of the trough. Cold, dry suppressive look. Here is the surface. Pretty unimpressive for our chances. What sets this look up is that our Dec 2nd storm quickly ejects northward and reinforces the low in northern Canada. Now we have today's run at 500's. Suppression is gone. What we are now seeing is the Dec 2nd storm is taking it's time and rotating up through the 50/50 region. What this is creating is a small bump up of ridging in the east (red arrow) and in response we are seeing NS energy getting bumped southward (black arrow). And if you notice the surface we are now seeing low pressures dropping out of Canada and southward compared to 2 days ago which had high pressures. The GEFS isn't alone. The EPS has gone through same run to run changes these last couple days as well. Below is the current 500's Though not as pronounced you can still see the same features now showing up. Now I am not calling for a storm at this time. Just noting that the potential has ratcheted up a good bit from just the dry/cold and a possible clipper advertised a couple of days ago.

And did you hear the AO is going ++++++++++++++++++ as well? Fun times.

Seeing a pretty significant drop of the 500's compared to previous runs. I like.

GFS throws out the tease again for a couple days after the Dec 2'nd storm. Starting to get some somewhat promising looks on the models now for that period of time. Big player at that time is what we see the Dec 2nd storm do. If we can see a legit 50/50 from that system then it could possibly be game on.

The ridging (between the 50/50 and the incoming upper low) is a tricky deal. Might seem counter intuitive but we need that ridging initially to be strong in the upper portions of the ridge to help block the upper lows movement northeast. As long as the greater height builds are seen in the northern portion and the southern portion stays weak or even weakens we will be fine as currently depicted as it will not effect the flow through our region. Just follow the height lines from the Midwest into the east and you can get an idea what I am referring to. Now one other thing I haven't mentioned as of yet is that we are seeing the response that we see from the upper low (dropping southward through our region) because we are seeing this strong ridging. Take that out (weaken/squash/force south the ridge ) the incentive for the upper low to drop goes away. So the ridge is a necessary evil in this setup.

Whether some things or just noise or the real deal we are seeing improvements where we need to see them. We are seeing both the initial blocking over Canada a touch farther south and the ridging in front of the system is show better ridging in the upper portion where we need to see it. These are slight changes and could very well be noise but whatever they are they have slightly adjusted the upper low track when it gets handed off to the 50/50s influence. That is when we are seeing the biggest difference made. We are now seeing much more interaction between the NS energy (the energy that was screwing up the Canadian heights in prior runs) and the 50/50 (Saw this in yesterdays 12Z as well). If you compare this run to the previous you can see how this is impacting the flow in the N-Atlantic and it is a difference maker on the placement of the upper low off the coast.

Looking over things I thought the overnight models continued to show the possibilities for front end and/or back end snows for the Dec 3 system. There are a lot of things I could discuss on the setup but will try to make this brief and just focus on some things I think/would like to see in future runs. Really the key here is keeping that closed upper low in the west as far south as possible as it makes its trek across the country. So here are some things I will be looking for. Below we have the EPS at day 4. The Models have seemed to settle on the NS that is dropping down from the pole to play nice for the time being. Wouldn't be overly comfortable with that being the case as I have seen the models mishandle NS energy up to and inside of 24 hours. But for the time being let's assume that this will be the case otherwise nothing else that follows will mean anything. So notice without the NS breaking them down we are seeing height builds/blocking over top of our system which will counter the systems tendency to move northward through its initial eastward movement. Now what we would like to see on future runs is that feature come in stronger and/or further south. Now if you notice the ridging in front of the system that will play a key as the system enters the central US. There are several things I am looking for with this feature as the system begins to get handed off from the initial blocking over top. Notice that we are seeing the higher height anomalies in the upper portion of the ridging. This is important, see these greater anomalies in the lower portion or even spanning the whole ridge from North to south and it is probably game over. One other feature with this ridging is notice that is making an attempt to hook over the top of the approaching system. These two features of the ridge will fight against the system gaining latitude as it begins losing the initial blocking over top. So what I would like to see are stronger height anomalies in the northern portion as well as a sharper hooking over top the system (hopefully we see a distinct hooking of the greater anomalies as well). We also want to see this feature hold on longer, the longer the better. The final hand off with this system and probably the most crucial (if we haven't already lost the low because of too much latitude gain) is what we see when the ridging hands off to the 50/50 influence. We lose that ridging too quickly and/or it is weaker and we will see the storm gain too much latitude in a key area before the 50/50s can take over. There is one last thing I will be watching and that is the 50/50. Right now the models have been pretty steadfast on a strong system in the general area now shown. So let's assume that will be the case otherwise different placement/strength and it changes the equation. Now the one thing we are seeing with this low is it is departing NE as the system is approaching the Midwest. But have that depart 6-12 hours later (assuming we have a decently positioned upper low) and things become very interesting very quickly. ETA: Or the storm moves in quicker before the 50/50 can depart. Anything that closes the gap between those two is good. One last comment. The roughly day 8/9 period has had my interest for several days now despite the suppressive look we have been seeing quite often on the models. I will just say my interest jumped by a couple of magnitudes after seeing the overnight runs. But day 8/9, enough said.

Saw this and all I could think of was, 'I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a Hamburger today'. Wonder how many of the younger posters know where this is from?

If you look at the very end of the run you see the possibility of ridge bridging across the pole between the EPO/NAO, EPO/Central Russia, NAO/Russia or even possibly all three. Not a bad place to be for our winter chances. Of course this look will probably be gone the next run.

Looking over the Dec 2nd time period and you couldn't tell it by just looking at the surface but the EPS did improved. Saw an improvement at 500's. Still having the same issues as before though. Ns energy is still dropping down on top of the storm breaking down the heights. As long as we continue to see this occur this period of time is pretty much dead in the water. GEFS was pretty much a wash. Some improvements, some not so good. Same issue though, the NS energy drop.

Know where you can pick one up.

Like the EPS better but at the very end of the GEFS is very promising. eta: In regards to the AO/NAO. Haven't really looked into other areas as of yet.

Just a few small changes on the overnight EPS. Good ones @MDstorm so you can keep reading the post. Maybe they will get some to back off the ledge... until the next run. As I mentioned yesterday for various reasons I look at 500's to get a read on the AO state on the surface. I find the 500's tend to give me a more accurate read on what to expect then just looking at surface pressures especially when we are beyond the short and mid ranges (7+ days out). Now admittedly I cringed a little when I got a chance to look over the mid day runs early yesterday evening. Spent some time earlier in the day trying to calm some fears only to come across this. Not what I really wanted to see. Consolidated PV where the EPS was now downplaying the possibility of a portion of the pv migrating over to our side which I feel is key. The only positives I see here, if you want to call them that, are the fact that the pv is displaced a little bit off the pole, the stronger neg anomalies are not centered over the pv and that we aren't seeing extreme neg departures with those anomalies. To me this look suggests a strong 2 or even possibly a 3 SD +AO. Now we have had some projected 4/5 SD +AO thrown out over the last few days. This look isn't close and I have yet to see a look that comes close over these last few days. Believe me, when you see it you will know it. A huge deep purple blob and circular pv located squarely over the pole. It is a look that has left me whimpering, lying on the floor in a fetal position on occasion over the years. Okay now lets look at the overnight run. Notice some changes? We are now seeing the ridging into Greenland I had mentioned the possibility of yesterday. The EPO is once again there. We are seeing height builds up to and over the pole. The EPS is once again hitting on a piece of pv rotating over to our side and now is throwing in one over towards the Aleutians as well. Note also that the neg anomalies are now situated off of the pvs to their south. This look here suggests to me that we would see a nuetralish looking AO on the surface. Let's look at the surface of the above. Yesterday 12 Z is looking pretty rough. Lower pressures are consolidated and located squarely under the PV depicted at 500's. Only somewhat saving grace is that are displaced off the pole somewhat. And when you look at the AO index we are seeing 2 SD that is suggested from the 500's. Now look at the latest run. We now are seeing a split of the low pressure anomalies with the departures not as strong as the previous. Just eyeballing this I would say this is probably a weak positive. Looking at the index though has this as a weak neg. Looking at the AO progression we see a brief spike (3/4 days) to a +3 SD before it drops again into the -AO category. And I think this spike is the result of the migration over the pole of a piece of PV. One other thing I would like to show. Notice the configuration of the pv and where the pieces of the pv are located as well as the ridging shaping it? Now look at what had believed was a rough idea of a possibility yesterday knowing the tendencies/ bias' of the models so far this year as well what the tendencies with actual verification were. Not too shabby. We are seeing the EPO ridging as well as the Greenland ridging. Seeing a portion of the pv on the other side of the globe. Even seeing a piece of the PV towards the Aleutians that I thought was possible. The one thing we aren't seeing as of yet is the pv dropping much farther south that I believe is a possibility.

My bad. And you do it so well. I believe you are almost to my level now and with far fewer years of practice at it. That reminds me, when does @WxWatcher007send out the checks? Have a feeling I am going to get a big bonus coming my way after all the weenies start piling into the panic room when it becomes obvious that the AO is going into the crapper the next 2 months. Oh wait, I think I have said too much. Better get back to posting how things aren't that bad and are actually looking pretty good. The weenies seem to buy that so it works for me... and my wallet.

Don't tell me you just went there? You of all people should know SWEs should never be mentioned until at least January and only as a last resort. Wonder how many people you just triggered and now are piling into the panic room.

Couple of things here in regards to the AO state. As I have said quite often I am not a big fan of just looking at the indice values as quite often they don't tell the whole story. So over recent years I have focused on the physical look on the maps to get an idea of the different indices. I also am not a big fan of following surface pressures especially at longer leads because they quite often fluctuate wildly run to run. So I pretty much focus on the 500's where you typically see much less variance run over run and are more likely to being closer to correct then the surface representation over the longer leads. So what I am saying is when I am trying to get a feel for the AO state I am actually looking at the physical representation at 500 mbs unlike where the indice values are produced at the surface just from pressures at different latitudes. Admittedly the current surface representation at the end of the extended is pretty drastic but when I am looking at 500's they are not representative of what I consider an AO at +++SD. At least a +++AO that looks to have any staying power whatsoever. It's a look I would associate with a somewhat strong AO but nothing to the degree we are seeing on the indices. The look also is one of a possibly weakening AO towards the end of the extended but that is still somewhat up for debate in my mind. I don't believe it is any coincidence we are seeing the AO go strongly positive just as as we are seeing the 500 mb PV, or portion of it, makes its move over the pole towards our side of the globe. I think rightly or wrongly the computers are thinking the natural response to this in the current setup is to plant a big Blue Ball of death underneath this pv while it is moving over the pole and leaving it there. Now I just spent 10 minutes trying to write out my my thinking as to why they may be doing this and why they could potentially be wrong and after rereading it it didn't make any sense so I deleted it. So what I am trying to say is, I am not so sure I believe them and I have no good way of explaining my reasonings for that. Two other things. Typically in a +AO we see a colder Strat above it, the stronger the AO the colder the temps. What we are seeing is the exact opposite projected. We are talking extreme warming occurring at the same time we are seeing the AO pop. Also looking at the 10 hPa 60* zonal winds we are seeing the exact opposite of what we would expect. In a stronger AO state we typical see stronger zonal winds and again the stronger the AO the stronger the winds. Yet what we are seeing with the GEFS and the CFS is that after a brief spike (once again occurring with the pv move over the pole) where winds reach avg to slightly below avg we are seeing a very significant dip in wind speeds. The models could very well be spot on with the projected +++AO, I won't deny that. But there are too many things that I am seeing that run contrary to a typical strong AO. They just don't add up. So what we are possibly looking at here is nothing more then the boogieman in the closet scaring us that we come to find out never did exist.

How about a small, teeny, tiny step backwards? eta: after all these years you would think I would know better.

I know some on here are panicking about what we are seeing in regards to the PV, NAO and the AO in the extended. Maybe hold off on that for awhile. With all the turmoil and abuse we are seeing in regards to the strat PV there really is no way to know with certainty what to expect in the upper latitudes. Now below we are seeing some indications of a possibility I can see occurring (Something I have mentioned off hand several times in the last couple of days). Not particularly favoring this solution at this time but it is one I think has some merit. Below we have the EPS that is now starting to pick up on stronger/higher heights developing in the northeastern Atlantic. We are also seeing some ridging into Greenland as well. Also note that we see the PV extending a little farther south onto our side of the globe from previous runs as well as the stronger neg pressure anomalies on the southern edge of this extension. I will tie this all together a little later. Here we have the GEFS. Now the GEFS is lagging behind the EPS somewhat but we are seeing some signs here as well. We are seeing stronger heights/ridging in the NE Atlantic over prior runs. But there are no indications as of yet of ridging into Greenland. BUT... what we are seeing run over run recently is that the strong Neg anomalies over Greenland/NAO domain continue to weaken. We are also seeing the extension of the PV on our side of the globe extending farther south as well. We are also seeing the stronger negative anomalies migrating southward in the southern extension of the pv. Now to tie all this together. We have seen a tendency for the ensembles to under play or even not see the ridging/higher heights within the NAO domain in the extended only to start picking up on them more so as the period nears in time. We have also seen several times already where the verified height builds over Greenland are initiated/reinforced from the NE Atlantic. Putting these two things together and seeing the tendencies on the above ensembles it probably isn't too far a reach to think that in fact we may see, if not a -NAO, at least a weak positive or neutral when it comes to verification vs. the strong +NAO that they have been forecasting. Now as far as seeing the pv extension extending farther south vs previous runs that is pretty much a no brainer. Shows that the piece of pv that more then likely gets planted on our side of the globe will probably be located somewhere south of Greenland as opposed to sitting squarely on it or just to its west (+++NAO). The farther away from Greenland/NAO domain the better (weaker +NAO if not a neutral or even -NAO depending how far south it drops). One last thing. I like to see where the greatest neg anomalies are occurring. Often they will give you a clue as to where future runs may take a trough. The closer they are occurring to the base of a trough can be indicative that we will see a deeper drop of that trough in future runs. As you can see on the EPS we are seeing the stronger neg anomalies showing up in the base of the upper latitude trough/pv extension. Now remember that the piece of pv will be embedded within this trough. The farther south the trough drops then more then likely the pv follows (farther away from the NAO domain). Now what we are seeing on the GEFS is a little different. What we are seeing is the greatest anomalies are sitting squarely within the middle of this extension. The way this is shown these greatest departures are probably giving us a clue as to where the piece of pv will be located (quite often in the northern sector of the greatest anomalies). Needless to say if the above is true this would place the pv somewhere in the vicinity of just east of the northern Hudson Bay region and not over or just to the west of Greenland. This is the difference between a +++NAO vs. a Weak + or neutral. One last thing is that we have been seeing these greatest neg anomalies migrating southward over the last few runs from being squarely over Greenland to where we are now seeing them just to the east of the Hudson Bay. Again, an indication that the GEFS is seeing a farther south movement of the PV. Now what could all this possibly mean? It means that those of us freaking out over this are freaking out over a possible model induced illusion. Now I am not predicting this at this time but below is one possibility I think has some decent odds of occurring. Just a rough idea and nothing more. We possibly see stronger ridging into Greenland. The ridging is more important here as opposed to seeing a -NAO value. Considering all of this will be occurring on the periphery of the NAO domain there is a very real chance we see a neutral or even weak +NAO and yet that won't be truly indicative of what we have. With this ridging we should see a pinching and elongation of the broad based PV to where we have one distinct piece of pv on the other side of the globe and one on this side. The placement of ridging in Greenland should force our piece of the pv farther southward then currently projected into central or even possibly southern Canada. Now what occurs in the Pacific could come into play as well. Currently we are seeing weaker heights/ridging in the EPO region. I tend to believe that feature is probably being under played at this time. Think that will come in stronger and that will force an extension of the pv southward towards the Aleutians in a favorable position. We have been seeing a tendency for lower pressures occurring in this region so this idea isn't far fetched at all . I will mention one other possibility in regards to the PAC as well. If we in fact see the EPO ridge axis more west/east vs. north/south I can see the scenario of a distinct split of the 500 mb pv as we see a ridge bridge between the EPO and the Greenland ridging (If in fact there is greenland ridging). Now the above could very well be nothing more then the models doing their thing dancing back and forth. Then again maybe not. One other thing that leads me to believe the above scenario has some merit is what we are seeing in the stratosphere. We are seeing some extreme warming coming up shortly in the upper levels of the atmosphere that will be sitting squarely over the pole. Now the question here is do we see these propagate downwards somewhat into lower levels (100 mb, 200 mbs) where they can become an influence at 500 mbs. These warmer temps tend to induce higher heights/pressures. If we start seeing this migration downwards of this warmth in future runs I think that will probably be a good indication that we are going to see a much deeper drop of the pv (or even a split) on our side of the globe as we see stronger height builds in the upper levels over the polar regions. Again, not a prediction just noting something we can keep an eye on. One last comment because this is long winded enough. With how all this looks to play out you probably need to eyeball what we are physically seeing occurring in the upper latitudes and not just the indice values and declare we are screwed. There is a very real chance that these values won't look favorable and yet they won't tell the whole story.

Snow has picked up somewhat here (probably 60/40, snow/rain at this time). Now have quite a few quarter sized flakes in the mix with half dollar sized falling every couple of seconds). Temps have dropped in the last 20 minutes from a steady 36 from 3:30 to where we are now sitting at 35.