showmethesnow

Light to almost moderate snow falling here in Hanover. Eyeballing a 1/4" on grass and elevated surfaces at this time with a temp of 33 degrees.

EPS is now fairly strongly picking up on the possibility of a deep dropping PV as well as the potential for a significant cold shot. Below is the run over run changes being seen. Note that we see a significant change in the heights. This is representative of the EPS now seeing lower pressures associated with the pv much farther south then previous runs. Thus we are seeing very significant run over run changes with the 850 temps which are also indicative of a deeper dropping pv.

This is what I call a cooperative PAC. Day 6 Day 10 1/2 Day 14 1/2 Have the initial troughing towards Hawaii at day 6 which bumps up the ridging into the Northern PNA and EPO domains. Before this ridging can totally breakdown we see another trough setup towards Hawaii at day 10 1/2 thus reinforcing the ridging in the general EPO/N PNA regions. And yet again, at day 14 1/2 we have troughing again as well as ridging.

It's an op at range so take this comment for what it is worth. I like what I am seeing on the GFS from the roughly day 8 cold shot and onward through the extended. Very active pattern, PAC is being very cooperative, eastern trough/western ridge and besides a brief 1 1/2 day torch at the very end we are generally looking at cold to very cold in the east. Day 8-16 has the potential to surprise.

GFS rotates the PV down to just north of the Lakes as it responds to the trough running through the central part of the country. Dishes out some significant cold into the Midwest and East..

GEFS really knows how to run a PAC torch of the N Hemisphere. Okay, maybe not so much. Euro on the other hand. Despair runs rampant in ville as the King has spoken. 's are picking their spots along the cliff as reservations have never been better for so early in the season for @WxWatcher007's luxurious resort. And yet... Off in the shadows Showme is pulling out his cold weather survival gear, just to be on the safe side, and looking speculatively at his snowblower and snow shoes. But alas, Showme decides to hold off on the snowblower and snowshoes for the time being but has made a mental note of where they are located for quick retrieval. 's are astounded by Showme and point and laugh mockingly at their fellow 's antics. After all the King has spoken and his decrees are absolute. Yet Showme ignores the ridicule as he is following the subtle clues left behind from the models like a Wintertime Sherlock Holmes. If he thought the 's would listen he would present his evidence thusly. *************************************************************************** Knowing the bias'/tendencies of the models as well as actual verification in real time weather this was something I speculated on 8 days ago as far as what we would see with the PV despite what the models were presenting at the end of their extendeds. Felt the odds favored a piece of PV over on the other side of the globe between N Russia and the pole. That we would see a piece dropping fairly deeply into central/eastern Canada. And that we would see an extension if not a piece of PV into the Aleutians. Note I also I felt we would see more pronounced ridging through the EPO and NAO domains. And this is what is currently projected through this same time period (day 7). We are seeing more pronounced ridging through the EPO and NAO domains and the PV's are located where I speculated on with one somewhat exception. Though the models have slowly moved the PV in Canada southward run over run it is still has not dropped as far south as I thought we may see. If the models are somewhat right with the other features the PV drop will be probably be the key as far as PAC flood through the CONUS/or not as well as a potential for a very cold shot of air into the Midwest and East. Now below we are looking a day later (Day 8) on the GEFS which is probably the key time frame for what we see later. Note that we see a full latitude deep trough through the Midwest. If you note the deep neg blue/purple anomalies running down from the PV into the Lakes this is an indication that this trough is having a decent influence on the PV which will tend to pull it southward and drag it eastward along with it. I will show you the results of this in the following days shortly. Now we have the EPS and its representation at day 8. Note that we are seeing the same general look with the full latitude trough but we are not seeing near the same influence from the trough on the PV as we saw with the GEFS. Anamolies aren't as strong and they do not extend nearly as far south as the GEFS. So interaction between the two features is minimal. So now we have the GEFS 2 days later (day 10) so let's see what the results of more interaction between the PV and that trough produced. What we see is that the PV has extended N/S towards the trough that extends into the east. So though we are still seeing the PAC flow through the CONUS we also have a mitigating North flow from the Arctic regions around the EPO. This setup puts a wall up against the PAC flow in the central US as a trough and the cold sets up in the Midwest and East and shoves the PAC flow down into the deep south. Now what do we see with less interaction between the PV and the trough? Below we have the EPS. Note that with less trough influence to drag it southward and eastward what we have is a broad W/E PV setup through Canada extending towards the piece of PV over the Aleutians. This is effectively shutting down the north flow from the around the PV so we are seeing the PAC air given free reign to spread eastward through the CONUS. The above and below are the difference between a CONUS wide torch and a torch in the west and cold in the East. Now which is right? I myself am favoring the GEFS at this time. GEFS has been stepping towards its current look for several days now. Though the EPS doesn't paint a pretty picture at this time it has also been stepping towards the GEFS solution though it is still lagging somewhat behind. Now I mentioned the possibility that we could actually see a major cold shot into the Midwest/East. I tend to believe we are going to see the PV farther south then currently projected on the models. And when I see some of the large height builds through the NAO domain and into Northern Canada and the pole on some of the op runs I believe that the models may be picking up on this. The question is, does it get far enough south as to where the trough's influence as it moves eastward is enough to draw it deep into the trough. If that is the case we would probably be looking at the PV rotating down into the Lakes or eastward delivering much colder anomalies then currently projected on the GEFS's above map. Now the all important question. What about snow? Right now the setup during this time is indicative of a storm in the Midwest/East potentially a strong one at that. At this time though I would probably favor somewhere to our west. Trough/PV placement as well as the WAR would argue for this. BUT... Some things I am seeing suggest it may not be as cut and dry as that. But it is to early still to focus on that aspect as I think there is a strong possibility we are going to see some significant changes within the models in the coming days if in fact the models do move towards a deeper pv. So in a nutshell. At the bare minimum I favor cold in the east in the extended despite what the Euro has to say. The question is, how cold and will there be snow?

Have snow mixing in here in Hanover at this time. Almost a 50/50 split at this time between rain and snow. Sitting at 35 degrees.

Started looking into things for the coming winter in later October hoping to maybe try my hand at a forecast. Got far too busy to do anything more then a preliminary look. The one thing I did notice was that there were quite a bit of conflicting signals both good and bad. But watching this November it seems that quite a few of these conflicts are tending to break our way. Been liking for the most the tendencies both on the models and in verification of actual weather. So as where I was maybe leaning an avg winter in early November I am now tending for an above one (+133%). Things I am seeing also make me believe a majority of this snow will come from our bigger storms (southern lows, coastals) vs. a bunch of nickle/dime events.

Some winters (most) it seems that the good looks in the extended deteriorate as they near in time. This winter feels different so far where the bad looks are improving. Not a bad place to be. Kind of helps sets my state of mind while others are melting down over a day 15/16 forecast. By the way, hope Texas is treating you well. We miss you up here.

BWI: 26" DCA: 20" IAD: 31" RIC: 15" Tiebreaker ( LYH): 20"

I would be perfectly content rolling through the winter with this general look. Though this isn't quite the full month of November (through the 27th) it is close enough to give us a good idea of what heights we saw at 500's for the month. Very sweet look IMO. PAC looks great with a -EO/+PNA combo over cutting a weakness in the SW. Aleutian low with troughing extending towards Hawaii. EO/PNA delivers the cold, Aleutian low delivers the energy for an active PAC jet and NS. SW weakness provides a split flow and energy injected into the southern stream. The higher heights over Mexico/Gulf help bump up that southern stream into the southern US. Atlantic looks good as well. Central/eastern based -NAO to provide blocking. Higher heights in the central Atlantic to help offset the suppressive nature of a strong EO/PNA combo. If you also note the weakness extending between these two features (lower heights) this provides a slot for storms to travel through the 50/50 region potentially getting trapped by the -NAO. Between the PAC setup and the Atlantic we are see the troughing being forced into the eastern US. Also note the lack of lower pressures over the Arctic regions (-AO). I would take this look every winter and expect at worst an average winter with good odds of it being above to well above.

Besides the WAR looks fine to me without any major red flags. eta: guess I should have kept scrolling.

Yeah, I saw that as well. UL low captures the surface off the northern Jersey coast. One of the better scenarios. But as you said. Wheelhouse. Outside of.

Mesos are definitely icier then the globals. But we have been burned too many times outside of 48 hours, if not even 24 hours, on temps especially when the globals don't agree. The money runs will be tonights and especially tomorrows 12z where I am sort of expecting that they will fall more in line with the globals..

Not particularly concerned myself. Temps aren't exactly scorching in our source region (marginally above) and we are entering the time of year where we don't need Canada under deep blue and purples with neg anomalies. Also considering that the models have been erratic in the longer ranges when it does come to what we are seeing over the pole in regards to the pv I think it is anything but a slam dunk that the models have things nailed down.

No surprises on the overnight runs. Still looking rough on the front end with our best chances with the UL low rotating through. Couple of things may help our chances as far as the front end though. Timing, which occurs in the late night/early morning hours and the fact that quite often the precip will come in several hours earlier then forecasted potentially catching the cold before it escapes. At this point best case scenario in my mind is the possibility of a slushy coating around the PA line with others seeing some snowflakes/pingers in the air at the onset. Still looking at roughly 48 hours so let's see what the temp profile of the atmosphere looks like inside of 24 when we get inside the mesos' wheelhouse. As far as the UL low the pass it makes through the region is a good one. There are a couple of things in play here. We should have instability precip popping up within the core of the UL low which chances are good the models are under playing at this time. The UL pass argues that DC and south through northern and central VA are in the prime spot for this. Then we are also looking at the possibility of wrap around precip as we see interaction between the UL low and the departing surface low. This wrap around will favor the NW sector of the UL low as it moves through the region. Knowing this we are probably seeing most of MD in play with those north and east in a more favorable locale. Now the one big issue we are facing at this time is that the surface cold is lagging behind somewhat from the levels above it. So though we are seeing sufficient cold at 850 mbs and above what we are seeing at 900 mbs and below aren't with the surface quite toasty. With such a deep layer of warmth and the surface temps quite warm (seeing upper 30's-low 40's through DC/Balt corridor) seeing snow will be highly rate dependent. Now taking all of this in consideration best case scenario is probably spotty snow showers in the heavier convective cells within the UL low as well the potential for a band of snow within the wraparound where the heavier rates are occurring. A slushy coating or even an inch or two, though I may be stretching that, could occur within the wrap around band that potentially sets up (favoring those to the north and east of course).

Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!!!

No major changes on the overnight runs (GFS, Euro suites) just pretty much noise from the previous. Did note that we were generally seeing a little better heights to the NW of the closed low as it was moving into the Midwest and then dropping down. May have played a part in seeing a slightly quicker solution seen on the Euro. Then again it could be nothing more then noise. Except for the possibility of a couple flakes/pellets for some initially, the WAA looks to be pretty much on life support. Best shot at this point (given what is currently shown on the models) is the pass of the upper low through the region which is favorable particularly for the N MD/Pa line. Could see instability snow/showers with that feature as it passes through for the generally region and the northern/eastern sections could possibly get into a little wraparound/CCB action as the low departs. That will depend on the placement of the coastal low and the upper in relation to each other and whether a decent NE flow can set up in time. For those looking for a little more the best shot IMO is to see the Coastal low lag behind a little (farther south and west closer to our region) where we can see a little quicker/better interaction between it and the upper low. We did see some improvements in regards to the possible follow up 1 1/2 to 2 days later. Seeing the NS energy/SW dropping farther west and a little deeper out of Canada. This helps to set it up a little better as it crosses through our region. Below we have yesterdays 12Z. What we have is the trough that has reached a neutral state through W MD/Panhandle of WV. Take note of the minor height builds in front. The latest run is now showing the trough reaching a neutral state through eastern Ohio/Western W VA. Also note that we are seeing stronger height builds in front. This setup produces a trough turning neg tilt through the region opposed to the above which features a neutral. As depicted it could possibly produce a period of light snow through the region as it passes through but any impacts from coastal development would be slim to none. Now for those that may be looking for a little more from the above. We probably would want to see a farther west and deeper drop from this SW as it enters the central US. We also want to see greater separation between this SW and the current system we are tracking to allow better height builds in front of the trough. The objective with these two things is to see a sharper deeper trough that is going neg tilt a little quicker. This would allow for better snows as the system passes through. It could also possibly put the coastal into play for at least portions of our region. This is something to keep an eye on but it will be very dependent on what we see as far as the departing system (speed and placement).

I am guessing this is what you would call a -AO?

With that upper low passage it is hard to give up on this. But the last day and a half runs have been a death by a thousand cuts. 3+ days so there is still time but...

Looking at the greatest neg anom 850 temps they actually scoot to the south of our region with the 500 low passage. We are left on the northern fringe with very marginal temps. Would be hard to overcome the lower level warmth even with good rates.

WAA precip quite often comes in sooner then projected so there is always that.

Have to question whether the GFS bias for cold recently is also coming into play. So though we may get a better looking 500's we still lose the temps.

Just curious why you consider the current warming minor (which I consider pretty significant) let alone the projected one in early December that is showing a huge expanse of temps that are off the scale so we have no idea the true warmth. I am looking at the GEFS are you looking elsewhere? Or maybe you are going by the 10 mb winds?

I was looking at that this morning. Not familiar with it so I didn't want to comment. But you can see the temp spike of the AO as we have the pv crossing the pole. I am guessing the period afterwards may be reflective of warming considering winds slow during a warming phase?