showmethesnow

Despite the 00z gefs clocking in with probably a neutral epo that is a cold look in the extended. Neg temp anomalies it is currently depicting are probably even understated.

Heading out for the week to hit up family and a couple of Casinos so I won't be following as much as i normally would. But when we get back Sunday I have a very strong suspicion that what we currently see projected for the 10-15/16 day period will bear little resemblance to what we actually see next Sunday. Especially in regards to the PAC. Currently we are seeing a flat PAC flow into the West and I just don't buy it. Think we are going to see amplification with the long wave pattern through that region and it will just be a matter of where the troughing and ridging sets up and that will be determined by what pv presence we see around Alaska and its placement. By Sunday I strongly believe we will be looking at either a very sweet look for the PAC if we see the pv feature in that region rotate out around the Aleutians. Or conversely we could be looking at an absolute dumpster fire if that feature sets up shop on top of Alaska and we see a subsequent western trough extend down into the perpetual weakness we have seen in the SW these last few years. I see arguments for either case so which plays out is a coin flip in my mind. As far as the NAO? Who the hell knows. That will pretty much depend on where we see the major pv set up shop when it shifts eastward. Right now both models place it in one of the worst spots possible. They could be right but then again they are just as likely to be wrong and it wouldn't take much of shift to drastically improve the look.. So I guess what I am saying is, take what we are currently seeing on the models with a grain of salt because more then likely this is not what we see in a weeks time and the differences between a sweet look and a crap look are just a matter of some minor adjustments/placements of a couple of features.

Never said it would. Just trying to find something positive to say about some crappy overnight runs.

Just glanced at the latest EPS. Pretty rough looking in the higher latitudes but we did see some slight improvements here and there from the 12z. That said the look in the extended is workable given the time of the year but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for snow.

Waiting on the EPS to finish running to see what it has to say, but yeah the GEFS was pretty rough looking. Starting to hit hard on having a pv influence in/around Alaska and the latest run is following the EPS idea from yesterdays 00z run of planting that squarely into Alaska where we do not want to see it. Good thing here is that it doesn't take much of a shift with that feature (westward) to get a good look. As far as the NAO it won't win many friends. PV planted squarely in the western NAO domain and its influence spreading across Greenland down into N Europe. The run was pretty much the 2 worst case scenarios from my post yesterday. Won't say recent trends aren't somewhat concerning but I will reserve judgement for a few more days. Wouldn't take much to turn this look into a pretty good look and it probably all keys on how it handles the main piece of pv as it rotates eastward towards Greenland. See a farther southward drop and I think we see a good response in both the PAC and the NAO domains. As it is the current look being thrown up isn't what i would call a high probability look for our snow chances, far from it actually, but it is one that can be workable considering the time of the year.

Where the pv is currently depicted in the extended on both models it will be hard to maintain any sort of -epo/-nao regime for long, if at all. How it is evolving on the models at this time our hope is probably that both models are under playing the southward drop of that feature. See the models start placing that closer to Hudson Bay and I think chances are pretty good we see the upper latitude blocking showing up in both domains with even an outside shot of seeing a possible attempt at bridging between them.

The possible favorable changes to the pattern concerning the PAC are initiated Day 8-10 (Roughly day 8 GEFS, Day 10 EPS) as we start to see the PV make its move eastward towards Greenland. The models have shown for awhile that the pv's influence in the N PAC around Alaska would be substantially reduced as we would see everything mostly shifted eastward. But what I have suspected for while now (because of the ambiguous looks the models have been throwing out in this region) is that we would still see a fairly significant pv presence in this area even after we saw the shift of the main PV eastward. That said I believe the models may now be starting to pick up on this. If we look at the EPS below note that we are now starting to see strong negative anomalies and weak troughing extending westward through Alaska. This implies to me that the EPS is now possibly moving towards at lest pv associated troughing through that region, if not a piece of pv actually residing in that region. Now the current look is still workable despite the flat flow we are seeing coming off the PAC given the time of year. The problem here is that is probably not the look we get if we do in fact see troughing/piece of pv located close to or through Alaska. Chances are good that we would actually see is a repeat of the troughing extending down the west coast as we are now currently seeing and will see over the coming days. Needless to say this is the last thing we want to see for our snow chances Now the GEFS is also picking up on the idea of a stronger pv presence/influence around Alaska as well. But note we are seeing a difference where the stronger anomalies and troughing are compared to the EPS. These features are running north of Alaska and hooking down into the Aleutians. This is a much more favorable location for this feature and one I want to see. As a result of this we are now seeing the ability for height builds/ridging to extend up the west coast into Alaska. This would go a long way in improving our snow chances. Pretty amazing when you think about it, what just the small shifting of one feature could mean in regards to our snow chances. Now the PAC is just one part of the equation when it comes to our snow chances. Let's see what is occurring in the N Atlantic as the pv shifts. Interestingly enough, the EPS has a better solution then the GEFS. Note that the stronger neg height anomalies/troughing are situated mostly north of Greenland. This positioning is allowing the ability for stronger height builds northward into Greenland. Considering that we typically see smoothing at this range on the ensembles we would probably see a greater amplification of the troughing and ridging as it neared in time considering what is being presented at this time. Which would be a good look for us as it would place blocking in the central and western portions of the NAO domain. But if we look at the GEFS the neg anomalies and troughing run directly through Greenland (strong +NAO). This is effectively squashing the flow and not allowing the greater heights to build northward as we see on the EPS. And given the look I don't think we could count on seeing an improvement with the heights/ridging even if we consider smoothing. Again we are seeing just a minor shift of a feature that can have a fairly significant impact. Now if we could see a combination of what the GEFS is suggesting in the PAC as well what the EPS is suggesting in the N Atlantic I believe we would end up with a very good look through the CONUS as far as our snow chances. But we are still 8-10 days away from when all this get jump started by the pv's eastward migration so much can/will still change.

Winter of 19-20 Running snow totals. ******************************************** Dec 4 (Early morning hours) .5"" Dec 11 (Early morning post frontal snows) .6 " Dec 16 (early morning hours, overrunning) 1.0" Dec 18 (late evening snow squall) .1" ******************************************** Total for season: 2.2"

Winter of 19-20 Running snow totals. ******************************************** Dec 4 (Early morning hours): 1/2" Dec 11 (Early morning post frontal snows) .6 " DEC 16 (early morning hours, overrunning) 1.0" ******************************************** Total for season: 2.1"

No luck on the GFS in regards to the possible storm this weekend as it suppresses it into oblivion. I miss the good old days when it comes to the GFS. 10 years ago it would show a big storm in the extended only to lose it through suppression in the mid range. Only to bring it back in the shorter ranges. It was pretty much money in the bank for that progression.

Think many on here are always hunting for the big one, including myself, but I enjoy all snow and track it up to game time regardless of amount. Even mood flakes put me in a good mood. So though I might not post much on something that is smaller and nearer in time doesn't mean I am not interested. It just means that I don't feel the need to post something that has already been said a dozen, 2 dozen times and/or I have nothing to add to the conversation.

Not worth much but at the end of the extended we do see it in a somewhat favorable spot on both the EPS and the GEFS with indications of a possible further drop south and east into an even more favorable location. Again it isn't worth much but it does show this at this time.

Growing up here and spending most of my 55+ years in this local I have learned to take any snow in December as bonus snow. Far too many years were barren with at best mood flakes to ingrain this in my mind. I know some can throw out all the snows we have seen in December but taken as a whole I have always considered December as a mostly non-snow month whereas Jan through March were our money months.

Haven't bothered posting about it because I am in wait and see mode but I have had a feeling about the possibilities in the extended for a couple of days now. Once that EPO gets reestablished I think a few days down the road may potentially be ripe. It all depends on several things. Do we see some energy dislodged from the SW with the EPO flip (I think we do)? How badly do we warm up in the coming CONUS torch (As you already know I am favoring seasonal temps). And does the N Atlantic hold with the backing of the flow (The consistent lower anomalies in the 50/50 region are promising). Get these things and I think there is chance. Going by the EPS the EPO starts getting established around day 12 so that roughly opens up the very end of the extended. GEFS is day 9 so that opens up the possibilities a few days sooner.

Not alone? Feels like it when I read the daytime commentary.

Maybe, though we are seeing these warm anomalies at 850 mb (stretches of up to +7 C or so on the EPS) this time of year is more forgiving. GEFS actually keeps the 0 degree 850s through our general local or just north through this stretch. Euro pulls everything too far north but by day 10 it puts us back in the game as 850's once again drop southward. Something pulling up from our south or up the coast could have sufficient cold to work with especially if the GEFS is more correct.

Have an inch so far in Hanover with temps sitting around 30.5 at this time.

There is definitely a light showing at the end of the tunnel on both the GEFS and the EPS when it comes to our torchfest. I know I am the only one so call me stubborn or just a fool, but I still believe when all is said and told the east (especially mid-Atlantic and north) clocks in with around seasonable temps through the coming torch. Of course the GEFS has pretty much crapped in my bed its last few runs on this belief so there is that.

We lose the Atlantic though Not really sure we are. Not that I take too seriously anything the models throw at us in the extended when it comes to the NAO domain but some of the things I see suggest we don't. Though we do see +heights anomalies disappear I think that is more a function of the PV rotating down through the western portions of the NAO domain at that time. Where that eventually ends up will probably determine the NAO fate. We see that further to the east planted over Greenland, then yeah we have issues. But besides that, the fact that we are seeing lower heights planted in the 50/50 region suggesting troughieness through there suggests to me that something is holding that feature in place. And if you look in eastern Greenland we do see slight ridging there as well as higher heights to the south of it. Get this setup nearer in time we probably see more distinct ridging there as that feature doesn't get washed out from the smoothing the models tend to do in the extended.

Run over run changes from yesterday's EPS to tonight's shows we are seeing better height builds (starts day 13 or so) through the EPO region.

End of the run actually looks half decent.

Overnight EPS now has ridging building into Alaska at roughly day 13 (eta: actually day 12). Have a decent -EPO by the end of the run. eta: GEFS is quicker establishing the -EPO then the EPS as we are seeing height builds around day 9.

Woke up to a coating here in Hanover with a temp of 33 degrees. Light to almost moderate snow falling.

Yeah I saw that. My mistake for posting anything from just a quick glance. A newbie moment on my part.

And this is why I don't make the big bucks when it comes to weather forecasting.