showmethesnow

<shrug> Not much to say. It pays well.

The squirrel is in the bird feeder. I repeat. The squirrel is in the bird feeder. One thing I will add to the above. Stronger system from a phase and we get better rates to overcome the lower level warmth. The question then would become, where does the phase occur? Right now as depicted a phase would more then likely pull that system to our west. But we see it occur farther to the south and/or east chances are we could see the system stay underneath us.

Sorry guys, My Bad.

The setup for Tues actually isn't far from being a stronger storm then currently depicted. Right now the shortwave in the NS is lagging behind the southern SW. But a quicker, deeper drop with this NS shortwave puts it in a prime position for dropping down the back side of the southern for a phase. Only problem with seeing that occur though is that the low is struggling to stay south of us as it is. Stronger system and we are tempting fate on seeing the system run to our west. So the question is, do we fell lucky?

Whoa, a little steep. Me being a cheap SOB not sure I could talk myself into buying one unless it was a very special occasion.

Hmmmm.... Keep talking. So how much are we talking price wise? Who would have thunk it. Leesburg the philosopher.

And lots of beer. Right now there is pretty good potential for those north of the boundary to do very well with the projected look (right now we are probably talking central/northern PA and northward). The question is, can we see that shifted southward enough for our needs. With how hostile the PAC is about the only quick fix I see possible to doing this is to see the pv displaced S/SEward by quite a bit as I posted above. Do I expect to see that? No, not really. But it doesn't mean I won't be rooting for that Scan ridging to start popping on future runs.

An op run so this isn't really worth much, BUT DAMN... And here I thought I was the optimistic one. You are a better man then me if you can see positives out of this.

I know many are seeing this 10-15 day ESP map and saying 'Oh Crap', I know I am though my comments are more of the R-rated nature. With very strong indications that the central PAC ridging and the Western trough will be semi permanent features for the foreseeable future it doesn't bode well for our chances as we see the heights pumped up in the east. ***GEFS is similar though the major features (PAC ridging, Western trough, Eastern ridging, extension of the pv) are shifted a little to the west.*** Our hopes at this point reside in what we are seeing around the NAO domain to hopefully trump the extremely hostile PAC. Right now what we have is the PV planted in the western NAO domain with it extending to the SE of Greenland. We are also seeing ridging nosing into Greenland. Now this look doesn't particularly give me the warm and fuzzys on trumping anything though I do see some indications that we could possibly work with this as well (I will explain later in that regard.). BUT..... throw stronger ridging and height builds into Greenland, the stronger the better, and it is possibly a different story. We see this and we should see the pv respond by dropping farther south dragging the extension of it along with it. Now the effects of shifting of the PV feature southward is two fold. First the PV placement farther south will help knock down the heights in the east dragging the mean boundary (cold air) south along with it. 2nd we would hopefully see the extension of the PV shifted to the south as well into the general 50/50 region which would imply a semi permanent 50/50 low in that region. This would favor amplification of the wave lengths/lows in a favorable location for our general region. Now a slight shift south just will not cut it for us. I am talking a somewhat major shift (central Hudson Bay region latitude), give us this and I would feel much better about our chances. Now though I would prefer the above scenario to play out given the hostile PAC (much better odds) I do see the possibilities given the above look presented at this time. What we are seeing on the models through the day 10-15 period is that they are driving storms through the 50/50 region on their way to the semi permanent low planted SE of Greenland which is key. Behind these lows the boundary gets dragged southward hopefully putting it in a favorable position for our region for any possible follow up energy.. And though the SS looks fairly dead at this time (wouldn't rule it out as of yet) we are still seeing quite a bit of energy in the mid-Latitude flow. At this time the flow/setup would favor seeing amplification of trailing systems, it would just be a matter of where we see this occur and that comes all down to timing/distance between the lead temp 50/50 low and the trailing low (otherwise we will see the boundary pull northward again as the SE ridging exerts itself once again). Were talking a more thread the needle type scenario vs the above example so we are talking lower odds. At this time both the GEFS and the EPS have fairly strong indications of this exact scenario playing out around roughly day 12 in roughly a favorable location for our locale. (I hope I don't have to repeat the usual disclaimers of talking about something that is 12 days out). So anyway, I guess what I am saying is, don'tgive up quite yet. There are still possibilities despite what the models are throwing at us.

The look at the end of the extended on the GEFS isn't too bad for central PA northward. Too bad we are south of there.

All jokes aside, I probably favor this running through or just to the west of our region at this time. But 4 days so let's see where it goes.

Was thinking the same thing. Pacific NW should get hammered over the coming weeks.

Really can't say anything because of my God like powers when it comes to my posting about our snow chances but I will say, 'The squirrel is digging for the nut'.

Check out the latest CFS extended. It disagrees with the seasonal (at least for the first half of Feb) as it delivers the cold at the end of January through mid Feb .

Since @Ji has pointed out my obvious Snow God status, where postings from myself control our snow fates, I have decided to speak henceforth in code. So get out your super duper snow decoder rings as we see what the latest EPS run has to offer us. ***Rings can be bought for $99.99. But wait!!!! That $99.99 not only gets you one ring but two so that you may share with your significant other!!! And there is more!!! Order now and we will also throw in a video montage of the 09-10 winter for you to enjoy while we suffer through another Mid-Atlantic Fail winter. Rings can be purchased at my souvenir shop located in @WxWatcher007(aka The Reaper) luxurious resort. While at the resort feel free to peruse the many offerings available to you as well as the rooms which are fit for a King and a Queen. And if the Resort pleases you feel free to use the coupon code, 'Showme is a snow god' on Groupon to receive an additional 20% off room rates.*** As far as our weekend prospects here is the code phrase. The Blue Ji has stolen the squirrels nut. I repeat. The Blue Ji has stolen the squirrels nut. Code phrase for Day 4/5 prospects. The squirrel is searching for the nut. Again. The squirrel is searching for the nut. And finally the long tern prospects offered up by the EPS. The squirrel meets the Semi. I repeat. The squirrel meets the Semi.

Yes Ji, tremble in fear. For I, Showme, can smite your snow with a single post on the weatherboards. I suggest tributes from you for now on, 6 figures sounds about right, if you wish to see any snow in your future.

GFS still not buying into the possible storm this weekend. Saw some slight improvements as far as the 500s as we continue to see run over run higher heights/ridging in front of the trough. Yet it degraded with the surface low as it is ejecting it eastward a little quicker then the previous run. For any hope for our region we need that low to be as slow as possible.once it gets off the coast (farther south would be a big help as well)..

Potential is here for a pretty good hammering for someone on the eastern seaboard but I would probably favor N Jersey up to Cape Cod at this time. Just hoping our region can get into the CCB somewhat before this storm pulls NEward.

Thanks for letting me know. Really haven't been following the off runs of the Euro so am not sure how well they are doing verification wise. Still 3 days out so much can still change, especially considering when we are talking small nuances here and there can mean big differences with on the sensible weather we can expect through our region.

Don't disagree with this at all. But with us staring down a pretty bleak looking extended and this being the only game in town (well besides our potential day 6 storm)...

I might add something here if you don't mind. A neg tilt is more favorable (vs. a nuetral/positive tilt) for a capture of a surface low. So in a sense it can be more favorable for slowing the surface low down to where it does stall or even retrograde somewhat waiting for the 500s lagging behind.

Actually are seeing the beginnings of a capture at hour 78. Still just a touch too far off the coast for our needs through the DC/Balt region. But.... See a capture at this point and we are good to go. Mind you this frame is only separated by 3 hours from the above. And as we continue to see the coastal low lag farther and farther behind as well as shifting southward this scenario is very much in play with the current trends we are seeing on the Euro. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles spit out on the snowfall maps.

LOL. I keep forgetting we now have a 06Z Euro. Several things I am seeing here. Seeing a slighter deeper drop of the trough. The trough is coming in quicker. Seeing better height builds in front of it. And the trough axis is rotating slightly quicker as to where we are almost on the verge of seeing a neg tilt as it runs through our region. Also the low continues to lag further and further behind. Really starting to like the look the Euro is throwing us. It is getting very close to seeing a capture of the low somewhere off the upper Delmarva/S Jersey Shores.

Not going to write a novel on it but our potential day 6 storm is still very much in play. Saw an uptick on the snow means from both the GEFS and the EPS for those that follow that.

06Z GFS continues it's move towards a Euro type solution for this weekend.