showmethesnow

Be careful with that look on the diving NS. That was the look that reeled me in at range for the system we are currently seeing run through now. As you can see now the NS ended up being more progressive and dropping into the States farther east then originally projected. eta: But I agree, I like the look as well if it can actually verify. Good drop placement and track to actually pop a good little event.

I was sitting at roughly 38 degrees at around 11 shortly before the sun made an appearance. So a 7 degree jump in roughly an hour and a half.

I heard through the grapevine that PSU is guaranteeing a reboot of the Storm of the Century. Hot damn, missed the first one because I lived in San Diego at the time. Can't wait to experience it first hand instead of just reading about it.. Signed assclown and occasional tool.

That's pretty amazing considering we saw the sun pop weakly out here for an hour, hour and a half around noon and temps jumped up to 45-46. A thicker cloud cover rolled in about an hour or so ago and we have dropped back down to 43 at this time. Can't get over the differences we quite often see between both our places considering our geographical closeness to each other. Just goes to show how important elevation (I am sitting at just under 600 feet here and I am thinking you are 1100? So 500 feet?) can play into ones snow chances.

I found it a couple of times in the past but it was by just shear luck. Anyway, my wife is chomping at the bit to go out and do something so I will shortly be leaving the thread in your capable hands for updates for the next few hours.

Where is the sounding from? WB? I know WB has some soundings I just never can recall where to go to bring them up.

Thought I did here as well. Then I went out and looked and it was nothing more then one of the heavier frosts I had ever seen. I am sure there is a correlation between heavy frost and coming snow. Like the Fog correlation presented by someone earlier in the season? Am I right?

Know this gets over played a lot and I will probably come off as a using rule #326 from the Weenie Handbook but I think cloud cover may play a factor for tonight. We won't have much of a benefit from evaporational cooling as the lower levels are fairly moist and the wet bulbs are above freezing. So any degree or two we can shave off in the lower levels to the surface from limiting solar radiation (heavier cloud cover) could go a long way. Right now I myself am seeing fairly thick overcast and am hoping it stays that way for the duration of the day.

Both the NAM twins have backed off somewhat on the precip for tonight. And the effects of this can be seen on the temp profile on the soundings.

Was actually talking for tomorrow afternoon with the NS energy and that probably has the best temp profile of the 3 periods.

Actually I think we might do half decent with rates. If the models are correct. I mentioned above that this would be a 6 hour event but it is probably more like a 4 hour event. So If some of us actually do get .2-.25'" inches of precip in that time that is some half decent rates. Now whether that is good enough to overcome the warmth 900mb to the surface is another story. Now if we can see the models juice up little more...

I am not really sure this belongs in here. Being this is the banter thread and all... But I actually can live with the look the EPS is now throwing at us just beyond the mid range. At this time we are seeing a couple of things I mentioned that I was hoping for just the other day. Getting a better look in the west with a shifting of the EPO eastward as well as the beginnings of a northern based +PNA. We are also seen somewhat of a shifting of the PV around Greenland SEward to help knock down the flow in the east. Still some work to be done but the look is more manageable then what we were just seeing a few days ago. eta: GEFS is still rough though. But we are seeing one thing I like with that as well. That has also moved to shift the PV around Greenland SEward.

There was one other thing I wanted to mention though I wouldn't expect it to be a big deal. Keep an eye out for the possibility of a squall or two (rain/snow) running through the region (favored more to the PA line) early Sunday morning as the NS energy comes pushing through. And once again Sunday afternoon/evening as we see even more NS energy diving down the backside of the trough. The mesos are showing some indications of this but may very well be underplaying it somewhat.

Bah Humbug!!! For you I predict 38 degree rain. And mud. Can't forget the mud.

Thought I would separate this from the mid/long range thread. Wouldn't typically start a thread/discussion on what would most likely be a minor event at best but this winter has been so crappy I need to keep in practice not to mention that I am bored silly. So here we are. Now when it comes to any system and precip it is all about generating lift of a parcel of moisture laden air from the lower levels of the atmosphere into the higher levels. So when looking at the possibilities tonight a casual glance at the maps the last day or two would have you scratching your head as to where that lift was coming from. But digging into it somewhat it was interesting to see how that lift was being generated. Lets start at the lowest levels of the atmosphere where the lift initiates. What we are seeing at the lowest levels of the atmosphere (roughly 800-850 mbs down to the surface) is that we are seeing a weak disturbance running through the region. This is the starting point of where we see a parcel of fairly juicy low level moisture air begin to be lifted. Now that alone would probably not get the job done but what we are seeing above this in the atmosphere does. Now we lose the lift generated by the disturbance roughly around 800-850 mbs so the question becomes, 'Where are we getting the lift for above that?' Well below we have the wind speeds for 850 mbs. What I want you to note is that we have a dead spot of air flow through central MD. But behind that we some fairly robust winds. What is occurring is that these winds that are trailing this dead spot need to go somewhere. ***Think a rock in a stream. The water can't go through the rock nor can it go downwards through the ground so it flows to either side and above it.*** So this is what we are seeing in the higher levels of the atmosphere. We have the air being shunted to both sides but we are also seeing it forced upwards creating lift. Now this lift being created this way is occurring from roughly 850 mbs up to roughly 700 mbs. So as we are see the influence of the lower level disturbance wane we are seeing this take over to provide the lift to above 700 mbs. Now one last piece and that can be found at 500 mbs. What we are seeing is a strong SWesterly flow setting up in front of our incoming NS energy/trough. This is providing a mechanism to evacuate the lifted air below it. ***Think vacuum cleaner that sucks up air.*** So the air that has been lifted above 700 mbs on the previous examples is now being lifted even farther upward. Now we can see the migration of this parcel of air on the sounding below. Now what we are seeing initially is that the lift is in the lower levels of the atmosphere. But looking at the follow up sounding we now see the lift has moved into the midlevels of the atmosphere. There is another thing that could potential be a wild card for some lucky souls. Look at what we are seeing at 850 mbs. Small packets of energy everywhere giving a very localized boost to the lift. We are seeing these packets of energy strewn throughout the lower levels all the way up to 500 mbs. Get some of these to sync up just right and some could experience a very localized strong short lived burst of precip. Now at this point I think indications are pretty good that we will see a roughly 6 hour period of precip tonight running through the general MD/S PA region dumping anywhere from .15-.25" of precip. The bigger question is, will it be wet or white? Right now we are looking at a pretty rough sounding for those through the general DC/Balt corridor and I have seen better for those to the north and west. What it will more then likely come down to is elevation, rates and latitude to a point. So for those that like predictions (won't name names ). Here's my preliminary one. Probably looking at mostly rain through the cities with snow mixing in with the heavier bursts. Just N and W of the cities I can see a mulch covering. And for the farther NW crew who also enjoy some elevation I can see a legit coating to an inch. Now those in the general jackpot areas are to be favored of course. I will throw one thing out there as well. I can see the possibility of a there being a very localized jackpot or two of 1-2 maybe even 3 inches if the stars align and we see some syncing with the different packets of energy within the atmosphere. And again those jackpots would more then likely favor those that enjoy some good elevation (won't name names errr... PSU ) . Now the above prediction is still somewhat fluid. I really want to see what the 12Z suite shows as far as total precip and soundings. I have a hunch that we may see this precip juice up even more during those runs which will have an impact on the temp profile in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Looking over the latest guidance for this weekend I think there might be a legit shot for some in here to see a coating to an inch tonight through N Va and central MD. Rates will play a big part and elevation may be the key (read into that the favored jackpot spots). I am still looking over things but may try to post something in a little bit in a devoted thread so as to keep it out of the mid and long range thread.

It irks me sometimes when I see your totals compared to mine. Just goes to show how much elevation plays a part.

Hard to tell here but might have some white rain mixing in here. My 587 feet isn't quite cutting it at this time.

Easier to see when you look at a sounding leading in (This is around Brunswick). If you follow the line I marked that is the freezing line. Notice that at 900 mb (pressures, hPa on the left) the temp is above freezing at it extends all the way to the surface. What hurts is we aren't getting evaporation cooling through that whole warm column (Green line meets the red line) as we have wet bulbed. So basically you are hoping for good rates to overcome this warmth without the benefit of evaporation cooling. Ninja'd by LP08

It's not so much the surface that is the problem its the fact that the warm layer extends up to around 900 mb. That is a deep layer of warmth to over come especially when the dews don't look to cooperate.

Seeing some weak signs of convergence at the lower levels of the atmosphere and we have seen the neg pressure anomalies building back through the region. I will look a little deeper after the overnight runs come out see if there may be anything there.

Interestingly enough the weekend may not be completely DOA. Looking over the GFS/Euro they look as if they may be hinting at the possibility of an inverted trough running through the region extending back from the departing coastal. This is in response to the NS that I have gone on about on previous posts that is now dropping generally through our region. Though I am not exactly doing back flips when I look at the profile of the atmosphere it is possibly manageable if we can see some half decent rates. And it does come at an opportune time, Saturday night which doesn't hurt. Some elevation would be a big plus as well. And as far as rates the models have generally been juicing up the last couple of runs. Probably wouldn't be talking a broad expanse of precip and any snow would probably be confined to a narrow region where the heaviest band moves through. I could picture some lucky souls getting a coating to an inch and would not be surprised.

Knew that was going to bite me in the ass one day. But we can fix this. I know some judges. And I can stack the jury. Let's do this.

Dang it Reaper. I keep telling you. It's time for a mass sacrifice. We need to appease the Snow Gods. They hunger. Of course it doesn't hurt my stock options either.

Dude, that is just so wrong. You know I can't unsee that. Right?