showmethesnow

I am in the 10-20% range. Yeah!???

Long range looks like crap. About the only thing I see is around day 10 or so if we can get a system in quickly enough before the 500's/trough pull out of the NE allowing ridging to take over. EPS is probably the friendliest look at this time for that possibility.

Really not much to like on the overnight runs for the roughly day 5-8 period that had some promise just a few days ago. We are just not seeing even close to enough separation between the front running SW and the dropping NS. At this point per the models about the only thing left on the table is the possibility of some NS energy dropping down the backside of the 500's after they pull through our region. And even that is looking rough as the mean trough look/placement is looking unfavorable for anything more then a very minor event. Now the period of time that sets up everything is roughly day 3 (NS drops interaction with the SW) so it isn't like we have loads of time to get that right. Hoping for the separation we need to see between these two features is probably a hopeless cause at this point. So that begs the question of what could possible shake things up to give us a shot? About the only thing I can see is that if we actually see the NS phase into that front running shortwave instead of missing it and washing out. Now this option would probably take any of our chances away for seeing snow as the 500's approach and pull through the region (they are looking very slim anyway) but it does improve the odds for another possibility. This would set up a different evolution, placement and timing of the 500's as they finally reached our area. A different look that very well could put us in a better position for any energy diving down the backside of the trough to amplify then we are currently seeing. Now do I expect any of this? Not necessarily. But it is the only thing I got.

What do you mean NAM range? We haven't even gotten anything into the range where the op runs of the Globals become somewhat useful.

I can't take credit for the Guinea Pig idea.

Looking at the latest Mesos (3K, 12K Nams) we are seeing slightly less dig from the shortwave. This is resulting less of a southerly component to the winds at 700 mbs and up which is what is driving the moisture over the colder air. You can see the results if you look at the FGEN maps as that has weakened. Hence we see a contraction southward of the precip as well as a reduction on snow totals. One thing to keep an eye on is to see how much dig we do in fact see with the SW at both 700 mbs and 500 mbs. More dig = more snow and farther north.

It was close. But if you notice we saw good separation between the front running wave and the NS running behind it instead of the front running wave being absorbed into the trailing NS. This allowed for better placement with the 500's and secondary low development on the dropping NS. That is the issue we are now seeing on the latest runs (less separation/absorption). Really not sure how we can make it work if that is the case. Probably be hoping for trailing energy after the 500's pull through at that point. Plenty of time to see that issue resolve itself though.

This is the first time I have seen a thread created for a storm projected on one op run of one model at day 8 no less. Oh wait. I forgot about Ji. Scratch my above comment.

The overnight runs were uninspiring to say the least. The good news is general overall look on the EPS and the GEPS is more conducive to the possibility of getting the 500's to drive through or underneath us then what we were seeing several days ago. (GFS/GEFS are handling the 500's different so that is another story). The bad news is that we are getting less and less separation with the front running SW and the NS dropping in behind it. The problem with that is two fold. First off this is not allowing the SW (and associated low) to progress eastward helping to knock down heights in the east. Second, we are now seeing all the focus on the surface low initiated by this front running shortwave instead of the possibility of a secondary trailing behind with the NS drop. In a nut shell, if we can't get that separation then everything is more then likely pooched. As far as after the 500's pull through setting up the trough in the East? Not liking the look at this time for the possibility of any follow up energy to do any damage.

Go to the upper right hand corner of your screen and click on your user name (Weather Will). Then click on the category attachments in the drop down. Brings you to the screen where you can delete previous attachments which will free up space to post more.

Is the AA meeting now being called in to order? Showme, present and accounted for. So who's bringing the beer?

The definition I read wasn't exactly a glowing endorsement of the behavior.

I had an idea what pedantic might mean, but I admit I had to look it up. It made me sad.

19/29=65.5%

If 2/3rds over is the same as just barely half over, then I agree.

I salute you. A man that freely admits he would steal others snow for his BY. Let's do this.

Definite move by the models to show the NS energy pulling through the Pac NW (day 4/5) to drop farther to the east vs. into the deep South West. Now that may change in future runs but the fact that we saw the models begin hinting at it around 7 days and the signal has only gotten much stronger is a good sign. This really opens up the options (much more snow friendly) for us vs. the alternative which was the SW dump. Now what it does afterwords is also key. Right now the models have that tracking this feature to our N and W. Not the best solution but one we can work with as it does open up the possibilities for any trailing energy. What we probably want to see is that energy/closed low?/500's tracking through or just south of our region. Not only does that put us into play with that feature but it in most likelihood sets up a favorable, potentially very favorable, setup for the period afterwords unlike what we would see with it moving into the Lakes/southern Canada. And it that regards (tracking through or south) the models have been steadily moving towards the possibility over the last couple of days. Now I am not predicting snow, all I am doing is presenting what IMO gives us the best odds to see snow and nothing more.

I think it is a very viable option as long as the NS drop behind it doesn't dump into the SW. We see that and with the height builds we see in the East it more then likely kills any chance of that lead SW being a player as the setup more then likely would get pooched. Actually have thought of quite a few scenarios since the models started moving away from dumping the NS into the SW and moving that eastward. But the odds of any particular one playing out will be dependent on exactly how far east (if in fact it does) and how deep a drop we see with that NS.

Okay, I want names! Whom in the Mid-Atlantic has pissed off the Snow Gods?

I remember the one time it was throwing 48+ inches out for many. That was a, 'Please God let this happen'.

As I have been saying (or nagging about ) for the last week we really need to not see the massive dump of the NS in the west. It's hell trying to make lemonade out of the big lemon of a look we would get with the huge height builds it would create in the East. Get that dump to bypass the west and dump farther east and good things are possible. And I think that SW we are talking about could possibly be a major player in that case. Models are really starting to show this feature stronger and progressing farther east then just a few days ago. Get the NS to phase with that somewhere in the east (as you mentioned above) to get a stronger system to setup confluence to our NE and our prospects look brighter. Models are also picking up on a little more active and more pressing NS as the closed low moves eastward then on previous runs all of which could make or break our possibilities with forcing suppression on that feature as it is moving eastward. But those things won't mean much, IF WE SEE THE NS DUMP INTO THE WEST. Guess everybody now knows where I stand.

I agree. Was sort of alluding to this in my brief comment from above. Probably should have gone into a little more detail but I was busy doing something and just had time to shoot off a quick comment. But the setup we now have being projected isn't really conducive for having both cold and a decent SW/surface circulation in place at the same time. Of course things may and probably will change with the setup with seven days to go but right now with what is being projected I am not really high on that period.

Agree 100%. Have to think the performance we saw with the models over the winter was one of their better/maybe best? efforts. The models just 10 years or even possibly 5 years ago weren't even in the same ballpark as what we saw this year. eta: cue the models to now go into the tank.