showmethesnow

@C.A.P.E. @losetoa6 Got a chance to try a few stouts while I was up at Mohegan Sun Pocono. Place called the Rustic Kitchen which had 6 to choose from, most of which I was not familiar with. An aside but the food was great here and reasonably priced. Starter was the Great Lakes Blackout at 9.9% and a price tag of $8.00. This is the first time I have tried it and found it to be a pretty good beer. I am guessing you both have tried this one because I vaguely remember some comments on it. The second beer I had was the Rusty Rail Brewing, Luminous White Chocolate & Macadamia Golden Stout with 8% alcohol and a price tag of $9. Had high expectations but needless to say it was a major disappointment. Not sure how they were even calling it a stout. Waitress tried a shot of it as well and she wasn't impressed either. She offered to exchange it out with another and I wish I had because my objective of trying all 6 stouts wasn't looking too good considering I already had a decent buzz from the first one. (considering 15-20 years ago I could drink anyone under the table it is kind of disheartening realizing that I am now a light weight ) The last beer I had was a Stone Xocoveza Hot Chocolate stout with 8.1% and a price tag of $8. It was a decent enough beer with a somewhat unique taste. Ingredients included coffee, Pasilla peppers, vanilla and nutmeg. Not sure I would spend 8$ on it again but I wouldn't refuse 1 if it was given to me. Tell you what, I had a pretty good buzz going at that point. Kept looking at the other stouts but common sense kicked in. And before you tally up the costs of the 3 beers ($23) and decide I am somewhat bluffing about being a cheap SOB... I went during Happy Hour where drinks were half price as well as appetizers. Add in a $15 dollar food voucher and I paid very little for my food and drink. Of course my wife had to ruin my frugal tendencies by ordering a $31 dollar meal and $12 drink that wasn't included in the Happy Hour.

59 posts and I have yet to see anything of value from you. It has been nothing but crapping on those that have been following the models and the possibility of snow for going on two months now. And now you are telling them they should quit following the models in a thread that is devoted to that purpose? Just a thought... but why don't you go elsewhere if this thread and what it is about offends you so much. Leave those that enjoy this hobby in peace. What you offer up is nothing more then a passive/aggressive form of cyber bullying which is kind of ironic after you called me out for just that recently over a silly meme. So to you (and your ilk) that don't have the decency to leave others alone to enjoy their hobby here's another silly meme in tribute to you.

You all are too hard on him. We were all once overly exuberant weenies at one time as well. Don't worry though, give him a few years and he will be just as jaded as we are.

Considering the long range pattern being advertised at the time I somewhat considered canceling last month despite having most of February left. Decided to hold off until this month. No surprise here but I forgot about it until I just saw both your posts. Of course as I am about ready to cancel this morning what should pop up in my e-mail but a receipt from weatherbell for this months payment.

The setup pretty much argues for an inverted trough somewhere through the general region though it probably favors to the north and east. For those that can possibly get underneath it they probably have a decent shot. Right now the temps look to be agreeable from 925 mbs and up. It's just the underneath it to the surface which is the sticking point. Get some rates and chances are good it can overcome that low level warmth. Know the CMC favors to the N/W of the cities at this time for the possibility of accumulating snow but I would not be surprised whatsoever if what we end up with calls of NE MD pummeling (if you consider an inch or two a pummeling. )

Just got a chance to look somewhat on the models after taking a break with a casino trip. After looking over them I will officially go on the record to say that I am mildly interested in the potential from possibly 6 days and out through the extended. What we are seeing is an active pattern with some decent indications of the potential of lows training through the 50/50 region. Not really seeing indications of blocking so we are probably talking transient 50/50's. at best That being the case we would be talking about timing with any follow up energy driving into the east. Now getting the timing can be a difficult task (not to mention we have to get the temps to be agreeable) but if we can get several shots at it you just never know.

Shame about late tomorrow into Saturday. The timing is just a little off. That storm is not that far off from actually being something for our region. Have generally seen some minor adjustments with the trough and heights in front of it the last couple of days that have improved the look somewhat though not nearly enough. Last nights run of the CMC actually had me going hmmmm..... for a moment. As it is, looking at the CMC would probably be suggestive of at least some flakes in the air for the area if not even a mulch covering/inch N/W of the cities tomorrow evening.

Nah, not at 7/8 days in a progressive flow. Get it inside of 3 days I might bite.

To give you an idea how likely the above GFS outcome is... Boston's highest all time snowfall record sits at 27.6". This storm dumps almost double that at almost 53".

Woke me up around 11:30. And yeah, the gusts were crazy. Almost went downstairs to move our dogs out of the family room because we have several big trees overhanging it. I found it interesting how the gusts played out though. Normally you see the winds build into the bigger gusts. But what we saw were the bigger gusts were hitting without any warning. Kind of reminded me of what you see with a down burst.

Haven't left yet. Still waiting for my wife to finish packing. If I had my druthers we would be pulling up by now.

Is gravity different up there? Seems like that snow is falling awful slow. Guess it would make sense though. Fake snow, Fake gravity whats the dif... eta: Don't mind me. I am just a bitter, jealous old man.

Says the man who spends $10 for a 120 min IPA to guzzle down.

The Reaper paid off the Snow Gods.

Saw a strange white substance falling out of the sky an hour or so ago and am not sure what to make of it.. Tried to report it to the authorities and find out if I was in any danger but they hung up on me. Can't understand why the called me a whacko before they hung up though.

The section from the beltway up to Owings Mills was completed in 85. I christened it the first week with a speeding ticket. Doing 75-80 mph when the speed limit was still 55. Lucked out, the cop only gave me a ticket for under 65 mph. The remaining section up to Reisterstown was finished in 87. Also in 87 we saw the OM subway completed as well. The OM Mall was completed a year earlier in 86. 795 in its earlier planning stages 60/70s was originally supposed to run all the way to Hanover. But as you can see it never progressed that far with the Hampstead bypass being the only concession towards that more northern route. Moved to OM in 75/76 and that area was nothing but corn fields, woods and cows. The transformation was astounding when 795, the subway and the Mall went in. Unbelievable amount of deforestation, grading, roads being rerouted or completely taken off the maps. The transformation within the communities was also tremendous as the area went from a somewhat sleepy rural area to a rapidly growing community as construction, housing etc... boomed. Of course with that congestion, crime, rent, real estate values, business ect... also boomed as well. Guess you could call me an old fogy but I miss the days before we saw all the expansion. I drive down through there now and I just do not recognize the place anymore and really haven't for 25-30 years now.

Oh great. And I have to drive to the Poconos Saturday morning. I hope they plow.

@psuhoffman Seeing as the mid/long range model thread has transitioned overnight into the Lawn and Garden thread I finally had a chance to look over this thread somewhat. Very nice work and very labor intensive I am sure. One thing I did notice with your Index breakdown for our storms is that what many consider the Holy Grail of our PAC look (-EPO, +PNA) for snow maybe isn't so much the look we really want to see for our best odds. Looking at the breakdown of the +PNA/-EPO regime we are only seeing 14 storms vs. 25 storms for a -EPO/-PNA regime. A +EPO/+PNA features 19 storms and even the polar opposite (+EPO/-PNA) is only marginally worse with 11 storms. But consider this. Maybe our ideal look isn't so much with what we see with the PNA index but more so on having an -EPO and where its placement is. Thinking it through I think if you looked at the -EPO storms in both a -PNA and +PNA regime we would find that a strong majority actually were very similar. And that is with featuring an eastern based EPO ridge that was encroaching into the PNA domain. What I often call a northern based +PNA over cutting troughing into the SW. Now if this is the case then many of these storms probably featured a weak +PNA or -PNA (close to a neutral state) depending on how far into the northern PNA domain the EPO was encroaching. Now I don't have your data so I can't really delve into this without quite a bit of effort but I was wondering if it was somewhat easy for you to do could you possibly throw up the number of storms we actually saw with a -EPO and a weak +/-/neutral PNA? Maybe a composite of those storms as well? One last thing. You didn't by chance get composites of the looks we were seeing 3/5/7 days in advance of these different regimes? If you haven't please don't spend the time. I will just make it a project over the summer when I get bored of tracking Fail after Fail with severe and tropical.

Going to be up at Mohegan Sun Pocono during that period. Probably would need a lot more help up there then down here.

Hmmmm.... Relax that suppression in the NE....

So you're saying don't bother looking at today's runs?

Yeah, I almost posted this one yesterday from the 18Z yesterday. I would give the winter a solid C if we had this verify over the next 2 weeks. But it won't and I won't.