burgertime
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Everything posted by burgertime
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Wow....just wow.
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What the models are putting out is pretty wild and with such consistency. I should be up for the Euro in the morning (I'm 6 hours ahead). If the 00z suite especially the NAM and EURO hold I think it's not absurd to go all in. Still gonna be a million dollar question of where snow/sleet setup is and where ZR happens because that could be very very bad.
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
burgertime replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I feel your pain! But hey at least it's warm where you're at. My climate here during the winter is a constant 34 - 38 degrees with rain and wind. Biking too and from work every day. -
Both the 12z and 18z bring a1040 high down to Indiana. We need to keep an eye on that. If we get a stronger high reinforcing that cold air it really is game on for those in NC.
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Thanks, can't seem to shake it even thousands of miles away
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This is what I was worried about earlier with the 12z runs. Someone is going to get a bad ice storm out of this. This looks like a strong CAD setup on the models...with a lot of moisture so someone will get the brunt of this in a bad way.
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Maybe it's me being a total weenie but it's hard to just call the NAM in fantasy land when it's damn near lining up with the other models. Still a few days for thing to go in the crapper but that's a lot of damn consistency across models. Surely someone is going to get crushed.
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Yep, wonder if I can talk my work into an emergency trip to Charlotte
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Thickness looks better though, that should support snow taken verbatim no? 540 line is going down to CLT. Usually that's a good sign.
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Hour 84 looks like a beast.....doesn't look far off from the EURO. Certainly enough cold air across NC to get the job done...but of course GSP to CLT is the line.
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Wait till you get to hour 75.
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Well NAM is doing it's NAM thing when it's getting far out. Has an ULL in the panhandle of TX.
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@75 nice cold air in NC with moisture starting to head towards SC/NC.
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Scratch that SFC temps are cooler this run but 850's are a little warmer across NC. Let's see where it goes.
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@66 our energy in TX is close to closing off. CAD looks stronger compared to 12z.
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I'm betting this NAM run is gonna look good at the end. It also isn't looking to far off from the other models as well which is a good sign.
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But it's still a few days away?
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Strong CAD on this run but not by much. More widespread precip out in TX compared to 12z NAM as well.
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NAM out to 54...looks a tad bit colder with more artic air coming south in the NE...if that continues over the next few runs that's a good sign.
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That storm also dropped a few more inches after an ULL passed by us. IIRC there was a colder airmass to our north but might be mistaken.
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Def agreed. My money would be somewhere between Concord and Charlotte is where that sleet/snow line sets and then probably between Rock Hill and CLT is the sleet/rain line. That's usually where it always sets up there. Whoever is on the sleet side of the snow sleet line is going to have a long weekend.
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I also like the idea of a thump at the end with a nice deform band setting up. To me that's where there could be a lot of potential. I'm worried about that WAA though, it always always always gets CLT. Hope it's a sleetfest for you guys but if say the Euro is right with how it gets you there, I still think there's a good chance of 3-5 inches before a switch over then another 4-6 with the aftershot...IF the Euro were to come to reality.
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Wow! How often do you see that?
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Yea this could be a scary storm for someone with so much moisture...It should def be a concern especially given how the models often downplay sfc temps in a CAD setup.
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Still looks good for you as usual. But into Monday and Tuesday if the Euro is to be believed that could be really interesting as a band sets up and just snows and snows and snows.
