burgertime

Big difference at 500mb vs the 00z is that it was a big cut off low. On the 6z it's not cut off yet. But it still looks like a monster setting up.

@108 this thing looks like a beauty. On the surface maps it's a big bad storm incoming.

Dig baby dig. @93 it's slightly SW of the 00z run. Gonna get interesting.

6z looks interesting. Slightly faster than the 00z GFS, northern energy looks a little stronger. For sure gonna be closer to the previous 00z GFS than the Euro. Who knows where she lands though. Energy is dive bombing at 84. Next few frames will tell the tale.

It's trying. This is the 00z run from last night. Good trend.

GFS out to 36. My early guess is this may dig slightly more but looks very similar out west with the 00z with the initial setup.

Better look on the ICON for sure. I haven't kept up but does ICON verify very well in the US? Even here it's mainly used for predicting weather for Germany and Scandinavian regions and best in the short range. It appears to be trending to the Euro/GFS.

6z is running. Let's see if the hot streak continues.

Again if the GFS is correct you'll do fine. Bullseye if this was taken verbatim would be probably RDU to GSO. But statewide with this solution you'd be looking at 6 inches I'd have to guess with many along and east of I-85 getting 8+. Take QPF with a grain of salt..yada yada yada

If GFS is right then basically anyone in this very crudely drawn nightmare of a circle I've made will get a good snow. The coastal areas would also likely benefit as it pulls away.

Sounds like GSP is leaning on the GFS which would is a good sign. 12z runs should be telling today.

Even a broken clock had to be right once? How is it every year I come expecting a different Brick and it’s the same old Brick?

Thanks! Haha I just love it here too much even if all winter it’s 36 and rain most years. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out. Even the UK Met trended in the right direction though it sends the low to the FL panhandle.

Yea I can see that for sure. EPS looked pretty damn close to the GFS with the setup. You guys are in for it I think. Makes me jealous haha.

Here is the 00z EPS snow output. It’s night and day compared to the control run.

Now that’s a backyard special right there. The dream. I think what’s even better is knowing the trends the Euro seems to be at least saying all the pieces are there for this. Drop the QPF in half and it’s still one crazy storm.

Euro and Euro EPS are really close to the GFS but stay suppressed. Actually not a bad look at all. GFS while an absolute crush job looks too good to be true. I’d still expect the Euro to start trending in GFS direction though. This has a very Christmas storm of 2010 look to me.

Thanks everyone! Wish we had a forum like this for Europe. Really miss the fun! 18z Euro EPS looks better to my eye at 500mb. Not the 18z GFS/GEFS but it's looking close to a nice ULL sliding across the SE with more energy than the 12z run. For now it's keeping south which is probably good given the NW trends as we get closer. 18z EPS spreads the snow line a little further south but with less moisture in general. Gonna sleep in tomorrow but should be around for the 00z runs the rest of the week if it's looking good.

All good here. Weather is boring in the Netherlands right now. Thankfully I'm six hours ahead which means I wake up just as the Euro is finishing its run...when I'm not up like tonight watching the Hornets game

Like this look for the south. Lots of energy rolling through and enough cold air. Even with the Euro solution from 12z it's a good look at this range. Split the difference and it's still a six inch snow storm! Can offer PBP for the Euro at 00z if it's looking good over the next few days.

Yea couldn’t believe it either. Next week should be better for us in the EU. Getting a good snow storm here in the NL would be perfect for this lockdown.

Yea that switch over will be crucial. It's good though on the NAM has a clear deformation zone is showing up, that's very promising. Also most are pretty north of the low. Someone will be left with a lot of rain while about 30 miles in another direction it could be all snow....but what else is new in the south?

Good luck with the snow everyone! Looks like a fun little sneaky one for NC folks though admittingly I've not been looking at models etc.

It's just crazy that ENC could jackpot near the end of Feb. It'll be super interesting to see the final accumulations out there. Gonna probably be a fun one where if you're just 10 miles away you get totally screwed while they get 2+. Looks good for you though. Gonna be a beaut on the farm!

Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling .