Random Chaos

I'm only getting 8.3" on that. Can you find a ratio that gives me more? I want to be in those 10"+ zones up over Baltimore. In all seriousness though, while I like what the GFS is showing, this setup for a storm historically hasn't produced well for us. There's a chance, and us weenies will be hanging on for dear life to that chance, but I'm not being overly hopeful until we reach Sunday and it still shows this solution.

Where's the CRAS. I want something that gives us more snow than the Euro!

Hey, Ichabod Crane's headstone is a nice stone monument point to base everything else off of! You should be glad they actually included something that wasn't going to decay!

Last night was #3 on record at 5.11ft MLLW in Annapolis. #2 was 1933 at 6.18ft MLLW. #1 was 2003 at 7.20ft MLLW. That's at least for the timer period we have records for.

My pier was height surveyed using NAVD88 for power (required in AA county) so that's what I used as a basis since I had that precisely at 6ft 2in to the deck of the pier

Nothing really exceptional about that video. Waves of that size are pretty common on the open bay - I get them many times every year with nor'easters. The fetch in that video appears to be from the east and the location appears to be somewhere near the Northrup Grumman facility based on the bridge angle, so only about 5 miles of fetch creating those waves, not the long southerly fetch that was expected to bring us 5-6 foot waves. They look around 3-4 foot there. It might seem rare for people that don't see the bay violent on a regular basis, but it isn't all that rare. What's rare is the 70+ MPH gusts that we were having on the bridge for about 4 hours straight. That's why the bridge was closed. But remember that the bridge deck is a few hundred feet up, winds at the surface may not have ever reached 70. My exposure is wrong to get the strongest winds, so I can't really comment on what the bay south of the bridge was seeing.

Annapolis is currently 4.67 feet MLLW (3.86 feet NAVD88). Forecast is for this to reach 5.5 feet MLLW for Annapolis in just over an hour (about another foot), then to stop rising. I am calibrated to NAVD88 and this is what my gauge reads just north of the Bay Bridge:

Staff guage indicates about 3.5 foot NAV88 Datum. This picture you can somewhat see the 4 and 5 markers on the side of my gauge. Also winds just switched from SE to W with a lull between the angles with almost no wind.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0007 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 236 PM EST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Central MD...Central VA...North-central NC...DC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 091935Z - 100135Z SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rain with some quick moving convective line further south, crossing saturated grounds likely to induce flooding conditions through the evening/ early overnight period. DISCUSSION...19z surface analysis and VWP network sfc to 925mb flow show warm front is starting to surge northeast under strong low level southeasterly flow transporting enhanced moisture from the western Atlantic feeder off the Sargasso Sea. CIRA LPW depict a sharp gradient in the lowest level in the vicinity of the the NC/SC line and generally where higher higher theta-E air and weak mid-level instability to help maintain quick moving convective line across currently from Rockingham to York/Union county NC. Combined with quick veering at the effective cold front, allows for total moisture flux into the column enough to support 1.5" totals in sub-hourly time frames (generaly 1"/15-20 minutes). This line of enhanced convection is starting to move into areas with reduced upper level soil capacity and lower FFG values across north-central NC into southern VA. As such, greater than normal runoff is likely to induce flooding, perhaps flashy initially before leading to a broader areal flooding that will impact more surrounding smaller/combining watersheds across the region, especially in urban locales. Further north, CIRA LPW values are reduced, but slug of 700-500mb mid-level moisture and favorable mid to upper-level divergence/diffluence should support moderate rainfall. Here, duration is going will be more likely to result in inducing broad areal flooding conditions across central to northern VA, central MD into south-central PA. Here, hourly FFG values are below 1" and are about .5"/hr in urban centers (which is likely to be exceeded as the main mid to upper-level height falls cross the area from WSW to ENE from 23-01z. Spotty totals of 1-2" are less likely to exceed 3hr FFG values, but still should be broad enough in exceedance to have solid confidence for likely flooding conditions this evening. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

Pressure down to 998.5mb; 22 hours ago I was 1030mb. Wind seems to have dropped back a little and shifted, had been east but now morw SE, supposed to go SSE. 0.89" rain so far.

They are also expecting 6-7 foot tides with 5-6 foot waves from the south at Aberdeen. Likely they will have roads covered and/or washed out with this storm.

Was that the October 30/31st storm?

Tide monitoring page from NOAA for the storm: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/East_Coast_Storm.html

If we get this height (5.5 feet above MLLW), yes. The next highest was October 2021 at 4.88 feet above MLLW. Isabel was 7.20 feet above MLLW. There were two other storms in the past 100 years to breach 4 feet - 1950's and 1930's Annapolis Isabel: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8575512&units=standard&bdate=20030915&edate=20030923&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=h&action= Annapolis October 2021: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8575512&units=standard&bdate=20211026&edate=20211104&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=h&action=

New tide forecast out. It's higher than the previous one yet again, by about 2-3".

Peak tide has been increased slightly with this morning's forecast: Source: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/cbofs/cbofs.html

There is an anemometer on the bay bridge. In addition my anemometer is near the bridge but exposure to winds during this storm will be slightly sheltered (wind directions are off shore for me, so mixing to the anemometer height is impacted by trees and houses a bit, especially after the winds reach south of due southeast) so I might not read peak. Link in my sig to my weather station.

Tides will be high enough (5+ feet) to flood out roadways near the water, especially toward evening. Prudent for them to dismiss early to make sure busses can actually get the kids home. Early closure also terminates after school activities which would be even more impacted by the tide levels. Tides over 3 foot will cover some coastal roads; tides over 4 feet will have widespread impact and make some roads impassible. Tides are supposed to break 5 feet. 0

If this comes to pass, severe erosion on southerly exposed shorelines (SE to SW exposure) on the bay. 5 foot+ tides north of southern AA County with strong winds and big waves. The closest analog to this tide level and wind direction is Isabel (6.5 foot tide). If a property was damaged in Isabel, likelihood is that it will be damaged in this storm. This is very different than the October 2021 storm (3.5 foot tide) that had northeasterly wind and damaged a different shoreline (those exposed to waves from a northeasterly direction) with 3.5 foot tides. Locations damaged in that storm will likely have less impact from this storm due to wave exposure being less.

Got to stay positive. There is still time for that behemoth rain storm to realize it’s better as snow

All aboard weenie wonder land! Why does the GFS keep teasing us with day 14+ snow? It’s been at this for weeks!

Dang, I was just coming here to post that! I’m ready for a HECS after the last few years!

Those are some pricy boats totaled too…

With Otis in the news, I saw this paper on rapid intensification was published earlier this month, detailing both the typical rapid intensification plus a newly discovered mechanism of rapid intensification. Article about the paper: https://phys.org/news/2023-10-scientists-ways-hurricanes-rapidly.html The paper (paywall): https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/151/10/MWR-D-23-0038.1.xml

I agree, but one of the coverage issues is the lack of information out of there. Even 1.5 days after the hurricane hit we are getting only a very few videos and pictures from the location. All the roads to there are inaccessible. And because of the short warning, media and storm chasers didn't have time to pre-stage near the landfall location. Until media is able to actually get access, I wouldn't judge too harshly the lack of coverage. If, once media can get access, lack of coverage continues, then I too will be appalled.