Random Chaos

Fire weather watch just popped: URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 213 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506- 010315- /O.NEW.KLWX.FW.A.0001.250301T1600Z-250302T0100Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- 213 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a Fire Weather Watch for strong winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * TIMING...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent. * IMPACTS...The combination of dry conditions, low humidity, and strong gusty winds may result in favorable conditions for the rapid spread of fires * FUEL MOISTURE...5 to 10 percent. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions may occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/lwx/fire

Some people are upset at the NWS firings being discussed here, but the people affected are some of those on this board we always await with glee their forecast comments, some of the red-tagged meteorologists who give us the best analysis of the next winter storm or summer squall line. Whether or not people here got fired in this first wave, they likely knew people that did, and they could be fired in the next wave or the one after that. These are our friends. I hate that politics has come to a weather forum, but it was pushed on us from the outside, not something we chose or desired.

Hit a 50mph wind gust not long ago. Bay bridge is closed due to winds over 55mph. https://bayheadwx.net/weewx/

It’s only a fail if you look at "snow in my back yard" measure. If anything this is a huge sucess for the models. We’ve seen remarkable consistency from 6 days out to 4 days out with only minor track changes, but because of the range minor changes result in significant differences in who gets snow and who doesn’t. We’ve been consistently seeing a southern eastern shore/Ocean City axis with models frequently, but not always extending the precip shield over the DC metro. We’ve consistently seen a coastal bomb cyclone but differences in exactly where the northern turn occurs that impact totals here but not Ocean City. We always sit on a razors edge here for max potential, and the models have been crazy consistent in that there is a storm to within a very small north/south zone at very good temporal range.

That includes today’s snow.

Fixed it for you.

I think I’m going to make a new model and call it the Ji model. It will take the output from all the other major models, average them, then remove all snow in a 25 mile radius around Ji’s house.

Every. Major. Model.

New advisory up, haven’t seen this one before that I recall: Freezing Spray Advisory URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 312 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543-200415- /O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250120T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.UP.Y.0001.250120T0500Z-250120T2300Z/ Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 312 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray expected. * WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island MD to Smith Point VA, Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA, Chester River to Queenstown MD, Eastern Bay, Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River, and Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EST Monday. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may result in some loss of stability. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare for ice accumulation on their vessel and consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous conditions. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

37.3F, SN, accumulating Ground must be colder than the air.

It’s less than the 43" given to me yesterday. Toss.

7" in fairly undrifted area. Measured drifts up to 21".

Been some nice steady snow for the last 2 hours. Not a ton of accumulation from in, maybe an inch. So hard to tell with the drifting I get.

Comparing the H5 vorticity to past runs, very similar to 18z yesterday.

And 43" on the run before that. If only lol.

Puking snow here in Annapolis:

I finally got outside to measure. I have a modest amount of drifting so had to walk to where I was both out of the wind and out of drifted snow. Measured 6" there. Rest of the area measured 0 to 8" depending on drifting. My deck is bare in places from the light wind removing the snow.

Eyeball estimate of 2" on my deck. Haven’t gone outside to measure yet. Heavy SN+.

Only the 5 foot radius around the DCA snow board. Rest of the city still getting 8+.

SN- where I am near Annapolis. Just started.

Look at KDOX radar. It’s because of beam altitude. Snow is falling but not reaching the ground. So the closer to the radar you lose returns.

33.5/15.9 near Sandy Point State Park, station is affected by the warm bay so expect it to drop once snow starts.

The "yes" icon is broken on mobile:

Gale watch just popped for the tail end of the storm: URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 712 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 ANZ531-532-060815- /O.EXA.KLWX.GL.A.0002.250107T0300Z-250108T0300Z/ Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- 712 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 2 to 4 ft possible. * WHERE...Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island MD to North Beach MD. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

I’m honestly hoping that we don’t get 43" in Annapolis. Not sure how well roofs will handle that much.