anotherman

Snow mixing in with rain in Mount Joy. 39 currently.

Why even come here if you reject science? The models are the sum of years of research and experimentation. I don’t get it.

This is like a treadmill. Things look better for a few days and then everything is crushed by reality.

6Z Euro for Friday.

Doesn’t it mean that it’s possible the +AO is synced with the strat warming and maybe it will snap back and allow more favorable conditions late in winter?

There was no 18z Euro in 2004.

SNOW?! We’re just hoping to get some flurries!

The problem at this point is we are at a "I've seen this movie before" portion of the winter. It always shows chances for snow in the long range and then pulls the rug out as we get closer. I'll believe it when I see it.

The problem at this point is we are at a "I've seen this movie before" portion of the winter. It always shows chances for snow in the long range and then pulls the rug out as we get closer. I'll believe it when I see it.

You’ve done it now.

I live just west of that area. I remember watching the band that dumped all that snow and just being so sad.

Here's an idea. Let's rename this thread. It's February tomorrow and maybe it will bring us luck. Certainly can't be any worse than it's been.

Coffee is not the same in the morning without your 5:30 posts!

What a shocker - JB referencing March '93.

Very true. I have been telling people I work with that this winter is like a winter in N. Carolina or Georgia. Even though it's a reality, it's hard to accept.

Thanks for those thoughts. Really adds a lot to the conversation.

All the fuss is caused by the fact that it won't snow.

In February 2003 I was in Mass. for a long weekend and had to stay over in Leominster and wait for the storm to pass. I’ll never forget coming home to Maryland. It was like a bomb had hit. Lanes on 695 were not plowed. Crazy stuff.

Why would anyone want things to be sugarcoated? Optimism is good but sometimes that can lead to misinformation and false hope. Give me the hard data any day of the week. It's science. There is no optimism or pessimism, only reality.

Man, that is ugly.

Larry Cosgrove weighs in... In what seems like an eternally bearish energy trading environment, a beacon of hope for more widespread wintry conditions... There are two issues to deal with for looking at the possibility of a back-loaded winter developing. One is the recurrent, broad, and strong subtropical jet stream, which continues to carry abundant energy and moisture from the equatorial regions into the western U.S. There is near-complete agreement from the computer schemes that this feature will eject three disturbances into the lower High Plains between now and Feb 5. The first, visible now on this satellite image, seems to be in the weak to moderate category. But the succeeding impulses look to have better dynamics to work with, and may trigger more and varied precipitation in the lower 48 states. Then there is the matter of snow cover. Despite repetitive cases of milder-than-normal readings in North America, the snowpack remains resilient and has actually pressed southward. If the storm sequence mentioned gets stronger, cold air pooling over the snow will be pulled southward. You will note that the CFS and ECMWF weekly outlines turn mild West vs. cold East as we move deeper into February. Yes, those schemes have had their issues so far this season. But there are reasons for a cold finish to winter.

Larry Cosgrove weighs in.... In what seems like an eternally bearish energy trading environment, a beacon of hope for more widespread wintry conditions... There are two issues to deal with for looking at the possibility of a back-loaded winter developing. One is the recurrent, broad, and strong subtropical jet stream, which continues to carry abundant energy and moisture from the equatorial regions into the western U.S. There is near-complete agreement from the computer schemes that this feature will eject three disturbances into the lower High Plains between now and Feb 5. The first, visible now on this satellite image, seems to be in the weak to moderate category. But the succeeding impulses look to have better dynamics to work with, and may trigger more and varied precipitation in the lower 48 states. Then there is the matter of snow cover. Despite repetitive cases of milder-than-normal readings in North America, the snowpack remains resilient and has actually pressed southward. If the storm sequence mentioned gets stronger, cold air pooling over the snow will be pulled southward. You will note that the CFS and ECMWF weekly outlines turn mild West vs. cold East as we move deeper into February. Yes, those schemes have had their issues so far this season. But there are reasons for a cold finish to winter.

A typical March event.....in January.

I’m terrified....