dseagull

Desperate times call for desperate measures. I'll call up my addict friends and tell them I'm sailing for a deep drop trip to the Hudson Canyon on Wednesday and Thursday for tilefish. Guarantee we get a tucked 965mb low inside the benchmark if i make these plans. I'll put 700 gallons of diesel in the boat first thing tomorrow morning. You can all thank me later.

Good god... only a 300 mile jump.

Good on you! Most would fear being labeled as a wishcaster, or delusional... or desperate... lol I just have a difficult time believing that all models would suddenly and accurately find consensus at this lead time before the cirrent storm has left the region. Generally, this (in my experience planning work on the water,) has resulted from similar data sets being ingested into all models. It's not to say they are wrong, but it's a bit peculiar this far out.

The whiplash is incoming. Im in so much pain from puting the CG on a hip tow solo today that I can't sleep. May as well tow the line with the incoming storm threat. I've read this book a few hundred times. I'm still confident that the king will bring this back in the next 18 hours.

Lets see if the high wind warning event verifies for Monday.... Would be nice to blow away all the ashes of the weenies that suddenly departed a storm threat 4 days out, solely on models.

Wow. Time flies. Bring the name back, STAT!

Was he Mets fan?

100%... especially not convincing since I have yet to see the exact mechanisms that lead to the shift for more than 2 consecutive runs. Current storm will loose interaction with the continent tomorrow afternoon.

It can, if spacing is being depicted incorrectly. This is where I would like to learn from the current maps. Is there a way to embed loops? Most are way too large in file size to post here.

Ah, common'.... im literally 6 weeks into my 9 weeks of non-24/7 work.... take one for the team and allow me one good plowable storm. ...then, bring on the heat, drunken boaters, bennys/ahoobies/googans, thunderstorms, sunburn, and crippling insomnia.

Doesn't look promising. But similarly, model consensus isn't always a bad thing 4 days out, even if the desired results arent there. The same data is being ingested into each model, and the same data is not always useful data until all of the energy is on the continent and begins to interact. Models follow suit for a reason, and diverge for a reason. I'm not convinced that the same signal doesn't still exist. Give me 3 straight runs of confluence winning out within 96 hour lead time and ill fly the white flag. Looking forward to to the runs tomorrow morning. Taco bell is always reliable.

Lots of talk about closing and ejecting the thread. If you ask me, it's premature-ejectulation. Either way, New England has relatively small skyscrapers and significantly fewer bridges to jump from. The jumping will result in minimal weenie casualties.

D Its the ICON. Focus on the 00z and and 12z Euro right now. Then watch to see where the GFS and Euro AI (ugh...AI) split the difference. It's 4 days off. I'm not looking at the damn ICON or UKIE. Garbage in, garbage OUT! It's always going to be models following suit until the data input is devoid of the current system which has not yet left the area. It's always been that way. That's why we get the back and forth with spacing.

Everyone will get pulled back in by 00z or 12z Euro. Lol. It's coming... that brutal "pull you back in" model flip.

Having said all that, I'll be waiting for the 00z models tonight. I work 24/7 from the end of March until mid January. This is my downtime season. I hunt with my dog and travel a bit. And it's the only time I can enjoy a cocktail or two without worrying about an on water rescue or tow. Praying for a good storm to wrap this frustrating winter up.

Great points. Jan 28 into 29, 2022... Grazer I suppose... wound up with 18.3 on barnegat bay. Quick hitter. Day before, had 3-5 forcast.

Lots of different folks here... who share a similar love for weather of all sorts... A link to one of my favorite storm coverage on TWC back in 96.

Its emotional investment. Lol. And I'm not making fun of it. It's like reading a familiar bedtime story. As long as folks realize that it's for entertainment and as a hobby, rather than get lost in it, it's actually pretty darn funny. And the roller coaster is part of the rush for many. The irony is that many folks lose so much sleep leading up to a big threat, that they are totally smoked when a big storm verifies and delivers the goods. I get it... i grew up anxiously waiting for radio updates, then spent hundreds of hours in the early weather channel days waiting for my local on the 8s to update. (I still watch the 96 blizzard videos from TWC on YouTube, with the music bringing me right back... Some of my fondest memories are from the lead-up... more so than the actual storms. Holds true today. I'm an unapologetic weather weenie, and will be until the day I die.

Like asking an alcoholic to take a week off drinking.

Windshield wiper. Back tomorrow at 12z with the goods.

It will wind up being one of those model scenarios where the Euro appears to be sadistically teasing weenies until a day of lead time.

Count your blessings. I got about a half hour of wet slop when on the water a bit ago down here.

Light snow and sleet, soon changing to rain in barnegat inlet.

Running drills right now off barnegat. Little snotty, but still fun.

Good points. It all hinges on CG at battery park having enough room at the docks for me to leave the boat and venture into the city.