dseagull

Wildcard. If you buy into the short term solutions, anywhere from 6-10 hours. Those who cool quickly can absolutely recieve 3-5. Look at this thing digging. Someone is going to do REALLY well. I'm saying 40 miles to my NW will crush it with 6 inch lollies. Delaware Watergap special.

I cannot believe it, but that actually looks like an accurate assessment. The heavier QPF will wind up closer to the coast, (as it always does in these progressive systems...) but the ground temperature will dictate any accumulation totals I'm on board with it. Shift the axis of accumulation about 20-30 degrees counter clockwise and maybe a 15 mile shift east, and that is it.... seen this scenario play out enough. Wilmington "Dela WHERE?"- Burlington county, NJ- NYC will jackpot.... this system is juiced on WV. I'll put 4-5 inches on black, please ...

Exactly. Once this started trending early this morning, I became excited. Some of the most memorable "surprise" coastal mini-events have come out of similar setups. (Ill post some examples shortly.) This has the potential to crank for 2-4 hours during early morning hours. A 3-5 inch paste to powder event is not a far stretch. 2014-2015 provided quite a few of these to the sub forum.

Dangerously close to being an ice storm for both philly and NYC.

Finally a use for that pesky "not-a-flamethrower" flamethrower, made by Elon Musk. Collecting dust without barbecue weather.

I think the GFS may need an intervention, although I believe it has it's time and place.

You have the GFS qpf?

Does anyone have any recommendations for resources explaining teleconnections in greater depth than most of the general explanations I already understand? Short of taking a course, (which I do not have time for, or a good school nearby) I'm not sure where to dive deeper into the science. Thanks.

Post pics if you can. I've had some of my favorite sunsets after good storms. Still heavy low ceiling here on this one. Thanks.

Excellent storm. Cold, hard hitting, blizzard conditions. Also, tracking for several days with uncertainties and different variables, all with the same people on here... good times. Learned a lot, and appreciate the input from the seasoned folks here. Enjoy the snow cover and the warm-up... pattern may reload faster than we anticipate. Go easy all'...

Hey, I gotta give all the dog owners props...I didnt even leave my doorstep during the lull early this morning. All.

Love the socks in flip flops during a blizzard! Bahahaha.

Snow in the eyes of 5 days of late night model watching? Heck of a storm and learned a lot while tracking.

That band around Boston is something to Behold. Not sure I've ever seen one so wide persistent set up so quickly. They will be measuring in feet.

Not going anywhere in the civic for a couple days... pic taken 2 hours ago. Another 1-1.5 since then. (estimate)

Here you go. Two hours ago. Absolute crush job right on the barnegat bay. Yea, I know...dog did a number on the entrance door to the mud room. Lmao.

Total crush job. Expected a SECS and got a HECS. That's what one band producing 3 inch rates can do over several hours on the coast. Incredible.

Dealing with the same thing, maybe a bit more on barnegat bay. Great HECS. WHAT A MESS!

Going to be incredibly difficult to measure. Forked river had 12.5 official measurement at 510AM... we are still getting good rates 3 miles south in my area. We are pushing that 18 inch top end prediction already I would guess. Wind now gusting to 45 at Barnegat Light.

If that band shifted just 15-20 miles west, lots of people would be under 2-3 inch rates with these ratios. I'm on the very western edge of it. Still bonkers rates since 330AM

Anyone have any recent totals for the jersey shore? I cant get consistent useable measurements for the life of me.

Heavy band seems to be drifting east off the ocean county coast. My snow rates just fell and beginning to get the feeling we will sit in subsidence for awhile.

Wow... band just moved back in. I tried to get measurements for 10 minutes while forcing my dog to come out to do his business. Impossible. Def. Over 14. Some drifts approaching 4 foot across my street.