dseagull

Its about time to comb through some historical data and current teleconnections to see what the spring transition season may hold in store for us. Spring coastals are more impactful for shore communities than most pay attention to. Cold and rainy springs (with wind on weekends) have an economic impact that goes unrecognized unless you live here or work in part of the economy that depends on "good-weather" weekends leading up to summer. Another side hustle of mine is boat hauling to and from ramps and yards. Despite the cold winter, I already have plenty of calls from folks looking to schedule launching their boats. They always ask what i think would be the best day. My response is usually, "i don't have a crystal ball for a month out, but if you like to gamble, it's a fun game." Not much snow down here on barnegat bay, and sadly I'm getting accustomed to the less snowy winters. Would have loved 1 big KU event, but I'm not sure I'll be around for another 10-15 year snowy pattern again during my lifetime. The cold didn't seem particularly brutal to me this year, but the duration was absolutely recognizable. Hunting was stellar, especially with the drought. Now im ready for my nine months of 24/7 work... and thunderstorms. It was April 1, 2023 when I had to rescue a stranded vessel with two crew under a tornado warning, which wound up only producing quarter size hail and some gusts to 65 in my exact location. When you basically live on the water all summer, lightning begins to fascinate and scare the chit out of you at the same time. I'm looking forward to getting back to my "office."

Oh, its doing LOTS OF TUGGING alright. Lmao

The last good year for winter flounder here was quite a fluke (no pun intended.) It was march of 2009. Very strange, as all fish were in their traditional spots, and they were all tanks 2lbs and over. Chumming while anchored wasn't even necessary, but i did it anyway with my corn and clam secret recipie. I even used my plunger attached to a long pole (flounder pounder) to stir up the bottom. When i tell you that we caught hundreds each day for two weeks, its not an exaggeration. Very weird, like they showed up just so I could show people what it used to be like. Didn't matter if you used mussel pieces or blood worms or sand worms. It was like going back to the 70s. Like you, I now encounter them on wrecks while targeting seabass in the spring and summer. They arent on our nearshore snags either. This is all 120-180' plus on the 20 and 30 line. Hundreds of theories on what changed their migration pattern, but we may never know. I grew up setting fyke nets. Overfishing doesn't seem to be the culprit responsible for their disappearance in the estuaries, though I'm sure it didnt help. My bride purchased a new trolling motor (spot lock) for my personal boat. As much as I dislike the fact that anyone can just go buy one and quickly target tog, seabass, etc... with very little skill.... I am getting too old to be double anchoring regularly. Took me many decades to master a skill that was essential, only to watch spot lock appear and give anyone an edge. Needless to say, ill be out catching blackfish this spring after I'm tired of playing with the early resident stripers beginning in two weeks. As soon as fluke begins, I'll be drifting the bay while on my work boat everyday. Bluefin tuna has been off the charts in close in recent years, so that will take the place of everything for awhile... then weakfish will come after that. Im blessed to have such a great backyard. Back to spending 12-16 hours a day outside. I'll never fully retire, as what I do now is not work to me.

Im patient. What i would like to avoid is late winter/early spring coastals with rain. Good for nothing in my life. I'm a hige fan of drought conditions during my work season.

As promised.... If it didn't come back by 12z today, I'd lead the charge off the cliff. Adios, storm. Bring on spring. Work boats will be dropped back into the water slowly beginning next week, as seasonal maintenance is done. Personal boats will be in by the ides of March. Goodbye underarmor, winter coats, gloves, and scotch. Hello shorts, flip flops, beautiful scenery, and beer. Maybe next year

Sure am. Fully expect a coastal scraper to materialize. Solid 2-4 NYC, 3-6 Long Island, Coastal NJ 2-6 from Asbury to IBSP. 4-8 from IBSP to ACY, 6-10 from ACY to Cape May. Could see more, could see less. Always worth tracking something that actually exists to track.

Well, whole town on barnegat bay is without power. My scanner is going nuts. Several pole fires and two sub station faults. This is going to be a 2 or 3 day repair for parts of town I'm sure. So happy I invested in a whole home generator.

My whole town just lost power. Two sub stations failed and we have several pole fires ongoing at the same time. Unreal.

Wild squall just came through down here as well. Easy 55-60mph gust and torrential rain. Short lived.

But a storm still is happening. Just not the way or in the same place as once modeled. Still useful for advanced signaling, even if not accurate. But.... heartbreak will be real quite often. At least the sub forum is acclimated to the pain.

Patience. Approaching coastal scraper bomb territory already. Wouldnt take much more than 75 miles to give everyone their largest totals of the season. Looking forward to the server getting bogged down tonight or tomorrow morning when the Euro shows something closer to yesterday's early runs.

Take it and run with it.

You beat me to it. I have so much video from that storm. Incredible hit down here with that bomb. Just wish it wasn't so fast.

I have a lot of respect for the man, as he uses conventional wisdom/meteorology more than most these days. He also admits when he blows a forecast. However... He is puting all his eggs in one basket with the kicker and the modeled positive, almost neutral tilt of the low. My feeling is that he is reminding himself of the seasonal trends we have witnessed thus far, and weighing his forecast heavily on this. Not necessarily a bad idea. I'd like to see where we stand tonight and tomorrow morning. Not sure why the rush to put out "first calls" when you have established viewership. Seems like poorly managed risk/reward. But what do I know... im just a boat captain. Very interesting evolution to follow, regardless of outcome.

Sure, call it. Im not even sure what that means. Does it change anything when one "calls it?" You know damn well you'll continue looking at the models and/or checking this thread until Tuesday at the earliest. Bunch of addicts looking for a fix, myself included. But sure. "Call it"