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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    Just came here for the @Holston_River_Rambler animated euro gif's and the @Carvers Gap control snow map. All kidding aside (kinda), we are 5 days away from a system with potential for something other than rain. It's the first legit chance we've had this year. We seem to have a ticket to the game and have made it to the ball park. The maps at 500 want to roll energy beneath us every 2-3 days. I just hope mother nature throws our strike out prone batter a belt high fastball he can connect on with one of them.
  2. tnweathernut
    That connection has been more common than a disconnected AR/NAO the last decade. Definitely going to have to be watched. Except from mid March through April. Then the -NAO tends to be solid with the ability to swamp us with 38-42 degree rainstorms. lol
  3. tnweathernut
    Very probable a marginal airmass to work with around the timeframe we are discussing, and we'd likely have to thread the needle................ but when do we not? We have very few clean opportunities for snow in the midsouth. Just get a system tracking to our south in January, put someone on the northwest side and see what happens. Admittedly, it's an outside shot, but it's not a zero opportunity, IMO.
  4. tnweathernut
    That's the same period I have been watching for a few days now for the one I thought had good potential. Just hope as it comes into better view it's a legit shot at something we can track. I'm disappointed in the late week. From a couple of days ago I thought the energy coming off the lakes and rotating through would enhance snow showers for the mountains and give a decent shot at a light accumulation for the lower elevations from middle TN through the plateau and into northeast TN.
  5. tnweathernut
    No fair, you are ahead of me. lol Good to see a duck or two on the pond after catching up to you.
  6. tnweathernut
    Just looking at your ensemble maps at a glance. The euro and the canadian ensembles look like a recipe for overrunning somewhere down the road......... Appreciate all the work you put into your thoughts. I enjoy reading them. Wish I had more time to dig into things and contribute, but with work I seem to always be pulled in a thousand different directions!
  7. tnweathernut
    The system that follows around day 9-10 missing the TN Valley to the south interests me….
  8. tnweathernut
    Had a light dusting in Gray this AM (in the mulch and along the edges of the driveway. Had a couple of decent bursts last night, but not much. On my drive to the office this morning (Johnson City to Erwin), we didn't have any snow on the ground, even through Unicoi. Looks like most of the heavier bursts stayed north near the TN/VA line and up into SW VA, also above 3500 feet and along the ridgetops.
  9. tnweathernut
    Interesting to note the big system that just missed to our east was projected to be a southern apps mauler (albeit mostly rain). I thought this might make the system we have now further north and east. I don't really bring this up for that reason though. Just something to watch as the winter progresses.
  10. tnweathernut
    The Hendersonville to Gallatin tornado went less than 1.5 miles from my family home where my dad still resides. I was busy sending texts to all my friends/family in group chats trying to keep them informed in real time. The signature on radar was evident well west of Nashville. For the time of year, I was surprised it held together as well as it did as it slid by just north of Nashville. Prayers for all those affected and especially those grieving the loss of a loved one today.
  11. tnweathernut
    Honestly, that cell fell apart like a wet taco as it hit the mountains.
  12. tnweathernut
    Good call, but you probably didn't know later this week would be today. haha........
  13. tnweathernut
    Snow boarders about to go from this is fun to not so fun if this comes in as a wind driven rain................
  14. tnweathernut
    If the squall today is any indication of the energy to come through northeast TN and the mountains Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning, could be a surprise or two........ I didn't expect to have thunder, lightning, and 40-50 dBZ's.
  15. tnweathernut
    Just seeing this from back in the summer. I don't get in here much during the summer season (unless there's a severe threat). So sorry to hear about your losses. I hope your toe and knee are doing better!
  16. tnweathernut
    Praying for your wife and for you as well. Back in the summer, my brother in laws fiancé was diagnosed with triple negative breast cancer at age 37 and her markers were such she wasn't a candidate for any of the immunotherapies. Before beginning chemo, they found out about a new clinical trial at Vanderbilt. She was the first or second person in the country to be in it. Her results were fantastic and the tumor was largely eradicated. She has since had double mastectomy surgery and is on her way to recovery. I pray your wife has similarly excellent results. Let us know if we can do anything for you guys....................
  17. tnweathernut
    I don't even know where to find the control run, but the OP was interesting in giving the mountains over 24 hours of snow showers and a stalled low in the MA.
  18. tnweathernut
    Tough to see the second system in the last month or so with a perfect pass being shown and no snow in the northwest quadrant. Really bad timing to have zero cold highs coming down during this time period. Even a mediocre cold high would get it done. Those cold highs don't start showing until we get to the latter end of the 10 day period.
  19. tnweathernut
    Welcome to Tennessee, where spring comes before winter……….
  20. tnweathernut
    When was the first? I kid, I kid....................... lol
  21. tnweathernut
    For east TN - Just noting we are in early ish February, with a near perfect track of a surface low, and a great 850 low pass incoming (including a deform band setting up somewhere in east TN) and we are leaning rain, even inside the deform. This satellite picture, knowing the date, should make your mouth water if you like snow. Just goes to show how poorly we do snow in the south. I'm still hopeful some in our region find flakes, but my hopes for a widespread snow event tapered about 36 hours ago.
  22. tnweathernut
    If this turns out to be predominantly rain, the RGEM will have been the most consistent. The euro will turn out to be the biggest failure. JMO
  23. tnweathernut
    Exactly. This is a big problem for our area. Initially we thought there would be an inverted trough across the southern apps. I don’t know where that thought has gone?
  24. tnweathernut
    The biggest thing I don't like for anyone in east TN is the deform band sets up across the plateau and even into middle Tennessee. This isn't the way to get a big snow anywhere near the valley in east TN in light of a very marginal temperature profile. JMO
  25. tnweathernut
    And the solution is poo for snow lovers. lol
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